PUBLICATIONS

(1) McGowan, D., & Nguyen, H. (2023). To securitize or to price credit risk? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 58(1), 289-323. 

Do lenders securitize or price loans in response to credit risk? Exploiting exogenous variation in regional credit risk due to foreclosure law differences along US state borders, we find that lenders securitize mortgages that are eligible for sale to the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) rather than price regional credit risk. For non-GSE-eligible mortgages with no GSE buyback provision, lenders increase interest rates as they are unable to shift credit risk to loan purchasers. The results inform the debate surrounding the GSEs' buyback provisions, the constant interest rate policy, and show that underpricing regional credit risk increases the GSEs' debt holdings.


(2) McGowan, D., Nguyen, H., Schaeck, K. (2024): Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking (Forthcoming)

We study how deposit competition affects a bank's decision to securitize mortgages. Exploiting the state-specific removal of deposit market caps across the US as a source of competition, we find a 7.1 percentage point increase in the probability that banks securitize mortgage loans. This result is driven by an 11 basis point increase in deposit costs and corresponding reductions in banks’ deposit holdings. Our results are strongest among banks that rely more on deposit funding. These findings highlight a hitherto undocumented and unintended regulatory cause that motivates banks to adopt the originate-to-distribute model.

WORKING PAPERS:

Selected Working Papers

(3) Mueller, I., Nguyen, H., Nguyen, T. (2023): Carbon Transition Risk and Corporate Loan Securitization. (R&R) SSRN 4276781

Media coverage: Loan Securitization during the transition to a low- carbon economy, VoxEU, May 2 2023.

We examine whether banks manage climate transition risk by securitizing loans granted to firms with poor environmental profiles. We find strong evidence that banks shift climate risk to third parties and are 17 percentage points more likely to sell brown loans. The effect is more prominent for banks that have long-term relationships with brown firms because they are limited in their ability to reduce credit exposure to these firms. Exploiting Donald Trump's election in 2016 as an exogenous shock to transition risk, we show that banks quickly respond to lower transition risk by cutting back on securitization of loans that carry high transition risk. Understanding the climate risk shifting behaviour of banks is important for the design of future bank climate policies, such as climate-related capital requirements.

(4) Fuchs, L., Nguyen, H., Nguyen, T., Schaeck, K. (2023): Climate Stress Test, Bank Lending, and the Transition to the Carbon-Neutral Economy. (Best Paper Award at the Banking Research Workshop, University of Muenster). (Submitted) SSRN 4427729

Presentation: click here

Does banking supervision affect bank borrowers’ transition to the carbon-neutral economy? We use a unique identification strategy that combines the French bank climate pilot exercise with a proxy that measures borrowers’ transition risk to present two novel findings. First, climate stress tests actively facilitate borrowers’ transition to a low-carbon economy via a lending channel. Stress tested banks increase loan volumes but simultaneously charge higher interest rates for borrowers with high-transition risk. Second, the additional lending is associated with some improvements in environmental performance. While borrowers commit more to carbon emission reduction targets and are more likely to evaluate environmental effects of their projects, they neither reduce direct carbon emissions, nor terminate relationships with environmentally unfriendly suppliers. Our findings establish a causal link between bank climate stress tests and borrowers’ reductions in transition risk.

(5) Lee, J, Nguyen, D.D., Nguyen, H (2023): Regulating zombie properties. (Submitted) (Best seminar paper award, University of Magdeburg)

We evaluate how zombie property law affects mortgage supply, interest rates, and the renegotiation between lenders and borrowers. Exploiting exogenous differences in zombie property law along several US state borders, we document that the law, by imposing a higher cost of post-foreclosure for lenders, causes them to reduce mortgage acceptance rates, raise interest rates, and strategically keep delinquent loans alive. The results are much stronger for non-banks due to their reliance on riskier mortgages.  Our findings inform the debate on policy responses to eliminate zombie properties and enhance mortgage lending practices.


WORK IN PROGRESS

(6) Koetter, M., Nguyen, H., Uzonwanne, S. (2022): Supply Chain Disruption and Firm Outcomes.

(7) Nguyen, H., Uzonwanne, S. (2024): Environmental Incidents and Sustainability Pricing Provisions.

(8)  Cho, R., Farag, H., Görtz, C., McGowan, D., Nguyen, H., Schroeder, M. (2023): The Value of Diversity: Evidence from the Housing Market.

Book Chapters

Koetter, M., Nguyen, H. (2024) European banking in transformational times: Regulation, crises, and challenges . In The Oxford Handbook of Banking, Berger A., Moyneux P., Wilson J. (eds). Oxford University Press: Oxford. 

Nguyen, H., Sfrappini, E. (2024) Banking in the Age of Climate Risks. In Encyclopedia of Monetary Policy, Financial Markets and Banking. Elsevier.  

POLICY PAPERS

Global Financial Stability Report, Anniversary Chapter, 10 years after the Financial crisis, October 2018, International Monetary Fund. (Joint with economists at the Global Stability Division, Monetary Capital Market Department, IMF)


McGowan, D., Nguyen, H. (2022) Zinsaufschlag oder Übertragung durch Verbriefung? Der Umgang mit Risiken im US-Hypothekenmarkt. Wirtschaft im Wandel—Jg. 28 (3).
Fuchs, L., Nguyen, H., Nguyen, T., Schaeck, K. (2024): Klimastresstests, Kreditvergabeverhalten der Banken und der Übergang zur klimaneutralen Wirtschaft. Wirtschaft im Wandel—Jg. 30 (1).

Nguyen, H., Kick, T., Schaeck, K. (2019): Interest rate risk regulation and bank lending: A regression discontinuity approach

SELECTED CONFERENCE, DISCUSSIONS, AND SEMINARS

2024: ECB Banking Supervision and Research Conference (Frankfurt, Discussion), CERP BIS ECB Bank of Spain WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance (Madrid, Scheduled), CEBRA International Finance and Monetary Economics (Luxembourg, scheduled),  Bundesbank Research Seminar (Frankfurt, scheduled), Women in Finance Workshop* (Warwick), IWH Transfer Conference, Brunel Banking Conference*, S-Hochschule* (Bonn).

2023: Banking Workshop University of Muenster (Muenster, Discussion), FED Boston Stress testing conference* (Boston), ECB/IMF Conference on Macroprudential Policies (Frankfurt), SURF Virtual Seminar*, EFA (Amsterdam, Discussion); WinE EEA (Barcelona), Swiss Winter Finance Conference on Financial Intermediation (Gerzensee); ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference (Frankfurt), Swiss Society for Financial Market Research (Zürich), FINEST (Rome), WIMEFH* (Berlin); IBEFA* (San Diego), Tuebingen University Seminar* (Tuebingen); FIW-Research Conference on International Economics* (Wien).

2022: KWC SNEE Sustainable Finance (Lund, Presentation and Discussion), DGF (Marburg, Presentation and Discussion), ENRI-COMPNET (Luxembourg), IWH Brown Bag Seminar, FRBSF Climate Risk* (Virtual/ Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), Australasian Finance and Banking Conference* (Virtual / Sydney). 

2021: WEAI (Virtual); IWH (Halle); DGF (Innsbruck, Presentation and Discussion); IFABS (Oxford); Muenster Banking Workshop.

2020: FIRS (canceled), FSU Jena (Jena), FIN-FIRE IWH (Halle); Muenster Banking Workshop.

2019: FIRS (Georgia, US); FMA Europe (Glasgow, Presentation and Discussion); FMA Asia (Ho Chi Minh); IWH Halle (Halle).

2018: Bank of England One Bank Seminar (London),  IMF brown bag seminar (Washington DC); EFI Research Network* (Brussels); FINEST Spring Workshop* (Rome); Southern Finance Association* (Atlanta); IBEFA 2018 (Vancouver); FEBS 2018 (Rome); Nottingham University PhD Seminars (Nottingham); University of Birmingham Seminars* (Birmingham); University of Leeds Seminars* (Leeds).

2017: Annual Royal Economic Society Conference; Royal Economic Society Junior Symposium; Deutsche Bundesbank Seminars; Nottingham University Brown Bag Seminars; 2017 Bank Colloquium for Junior Researchers (Limoges, France); British Accounting and Finance Association (BAFA) Northern Area Group*; Groningen University Banking Seminars*.

2016: 43th Annual Conference of the European Association for Research in Industrial Economics* (Lisbon, Portugal); 6th Network of Industrial Economists (Nottingham, UK); Annual Midlands Regional Doctoral Colloquium (Aston, UK). 

* denotes presentation by co-author