Understand how random, large scale, natural weather events in the American Southeast impact Floridians with a focus on the change in retail gas prices.
Using publicly available data and machine learning models to develop a feasible and understandable predictive algorithm.
This focused scope will allow us to develop an understanding of the impact of storms on the change in price of essential commodity prices.
Does hurricane category influence whether the shock to the supply chain or the shock to consumer demand exerts greater influence on the price of retail petroleum?
What regions of Florida are most impacted by extreme tropical weather events as indicated by changes in gas prices?
At what stage of a hurricane (land fall, pre-, or post-) are retail gas prices most volatile?
What is the weekly percent change in average gas price relative to tropical weather status?
How do historical hurricane trajectories impact gas prices?
What non-traditional data sources (internet searches, news reports, other?) provide other context for community concern about gas prices when there is an active tropical system?
What other consumer goods or commodities (eggs, milk, hotel prices?) see price fluctuations influenced by an incoming extreme weather event?
Can the potential impact of an extreme tropical weather event to oil rigs be distinguished in the data from the potential impact to specific communities in the forecast path of the storm as reflected in gas price fluctuations?
How does the change in Florida gas prices compare to regional / national gas prices when a hurricane is approaching? How do gas prices in Miami, the Gulf Coast, and Florida compare before, during, and after a storm?
How does the severity of a hurricane season impact long term gas prices?