10.2 How Did We Get Here?

WHO? Everybody.

WHAT? Have become willing victims of the Internet because of all the conveniences it affords.

WHEN? The rush to the Internet began with the Third Epoch starting about 1995.

WHERE? The problem is global. We are all caught up in this technology trap.

WHY? As Emmerson said, if you build a better mousetrap, the world will beat a path to your door.

According to a 2018 McAfee report, cyber-attack costs the world $600 billion annually. This is the low-end of the cost estimate. A similar report by Rand estimates costs up to $1 Trillion. Cyber-attack inflicts severe economic losses by stealing intellectual property, committing online fraud and theft, manipulating markets, increased security costs, and damaged reputations. Many businesses, particularly financial institutions, fear damage to their reputations if word leaks they were hacked. For this reason, a lot of cyber-crime goes unreported. And even when it is reported, there is little law enforcement can do to catch the criminals. Sophisticated hackers can cover their tracks, which is why very few ever get caught. For lack of positive attribution, the power of deterrence to dissuade cyber-attack is not an option. Low-risk and high-reward make cyber-crime a growing industry. As bad as cyber-crime may be, we have yet to face the worst-case scenario. As we noted in the last topic, the worst-case scenarios from cyber-attack are 1) Shutting down the North American grid, 2) Instigating nuclear meltdowns, and 3) Undermining the Federal Reserve. How did we end up in this mess? To be sure, there was a time when we didn’t worry about cyber-attack. There was no cyber threat. To be sure, the cyber threat grew as the Internet grew, starting about the Third Epoch. Recall from 9.5 that the Third Epoch started about 1995 and spurred by the public opening of the Internet and introduction of HTML saw the number of users balloon from 16 million to 4 billion. We rushed to the Internet like lemmings over a cliff. From the start we knew the Internet was imperfect, but we embraced it despite its flaws. Bill Gates famously commented “If General Motors had kept up with the technology like the computer industry has, we would be driving $25 cars that got 1,000 miles to the gallon.” GM responded “Yes, but for no reason whatsoever, your car would crash twice a day. Every time they repainted the lines on the road, you’d have to buy a new car. And your air bags would ask ‘Are you sure?’ before deploying.” We accepted the Internet for all its flaws because it made things better, faster, and cheaper. Better, the Internet made it easier to produce, access, and share information. Faster, transactions are processed at electronic speeds. Cheaper, the Internet eliminated many supporting requirements. As a whole, we benefitted from search engines, e-commerce, social media, connected homes, office automation, online banking, email, smart phones, even dating. We accepted the imperfect technology because the convenience outweighed the inconvenience. Moreover, as with most conveniences, their function was nice but not necessary. Who cares if you have to reboot? But like many past conveniences, the technology gradually changed from nice to necessary. Think of electricity, refrigeration, the elevator, washing machine, light bulb, telephone, and automobile. When first introduced, they were “niceties”. Today we consider them “necessities”. The same has happened to the Internet, particularly with critical infrastructure. Transportation, Finance, and Electricity all depend upon the Internet for monitoring and conducting transactions at electronic speeds. And we can’t go back. These and other infrastructure can no longer function without the Internet.