Beneath the Ban of Abortion: Evidence from the USSR

Abstract

Capitalizing on Stalin’s abrupt 1936 abortion ban, this paper examines its direct and indirect effects. We find that the ban achieved its intended demographic goal of higher birth rates but at the cost of increased infant mortality. It also triggered unintended societal consequences, including a rise in illegal abortions and vandalism among cohorts born shortly after the ban—consistent with earlier research linking restricted abortion access to "fatherless crimes." Our analysis suggests that curtailing legal abortion pushed women toward unsafe informal methods, likely raising maternal and infant mortality. Death records reveal increases in female fatalities tied to pregnancy (e.g., attempted abortions, miscarriages, septic infections) and infant deaths linked to complications (e.g., congenital weakness, premature birth), with no corresponding rise in unrelated causes. Alternative explanations, such as Stalin’s political purges or propaganda, cannot account for these effects. Our results underscore the far-reaching consequences of restrictive reproductive policies, encompassing intended demographic shifts and unintended social costs—emphasizing the need to evaluate the full spectrum of social and economic impacts when assessing such policies.