Research

Publications and Accepted Papers

"Why Don’t Eligible Workers Receive Unemployment Insurance?'', joint with Eliza Forsythe (Applied Economics Letters)

Forsythe, E., & Yang, H. (2026). Why don’t eligible workers receive unemployment insurance? Applied Economics Letters, 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2026.2615173

Abstract: The Unemployment Insurance (UI) system is plagued by under-receipt. We investigate the reasons likely-eligible individuals do not receive benefits. We find this is largely driven by erroneous beliefs about ineligibility, which are correlated with proxies for worker sophistication and information access. During the Covid-19 pandemic, we find misinformation about eligibility increased dramatically surrounding the expiration of the extra weekly UI payments in August 2020, suggesting uncertainty about UI program extensions contributes to misinformation and suppresses program take-up.

Working Papers

"Gender Segregation and Hiring in Japanese Labor Markets over the Business Cycle" (Job Market Paper, Revise and Resubmit, Economic Analysis and Policy)

Abstract: Japanese employment norms strongly protect "regular'' jobs, which are predominantly held by men, while women are concentrated in "non-regular'' positions such as temporary or part-time jobs with fewer protections. This paper investigates how male and female hiring rates respond differently to labor market tightness within Japan's rigid two-track employment system. I find that female hiring is significantly more cyclical than male hiring. Although hiring into regular employment accounts for most of the aggregate hiring cyclicality, the gender difference arises almost entirely from hiring into non-regular employment. I show that this cannot be explained by the composition of industries and occupations, nor by gender-specific labor supply decisions. Instead, the evidence points toward firm-side selection as the primary mechanism. These findings suggest that labor market policies in Japan should aim to stabilize women’s hiring outcomes over the business cycle by addressing structural labor market segmentation and firm-side selection, especially during economic downturns.

"The Long-Term Wage Effects of Unemployment Rate at Graduation in Japan" 

Abstract: This paper investigates the long-term effects of labor market entry conditions on earnings in Japan, with a focus on gender disparities and the role of initial employment type at graduation. In the Japanese labor market, men are more likely to enter regular employment, characterized by permanent contracts and strong job security, while women are disproportionately represented in non-regular jobs, such as part-time, temporary, or fixed-term positions, which offer lower wages and fewer benefits. Exploiting temporal and regional variation in the unemployment rate at graduation, I estimate earnings trajectories over the first 20 years of labor market experience. First, I find that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate at graduation is associated with a 6.2% decline in contemporaneous earnings for men during the first decade, with the effect fading in the second decade. For women, the estimated effect is smaller (–0.8%) and statistically insignificant. Second, I find that higher unemployment at graduation significantly reduces the likelihood of securing regular employment by 5.1% for men and 3.5% for women, driven by non-managerial roles. Third, I find that starting one’s career in non-regular employment amplifies wage penalties, with earnings losses of 14.8% for men and 10.5% for women over the first decade, with the wage effects diminishing for men over the second decade. Overall, the findings suggest that the costs of entering the labor market during economic downturns are disproportionately borne by workers with less than 10 years of labor market experience, particularly those who begin in non-regular employment. Although women experience a smaller initial wage loss, the wage loss for women tends to be more persistent than for men.

Research In Progress 

"Renewable Energy Economic Analysis" (with Linda Larsen, Peter J. Fugiel, and Zichang Liu)

"Policy Stability in the United States: Impacts on Firm Activity and Labor Markets"

" Cyclical Job Destruction, Human Capital Investment, and Gendered Sorting in Long‑ and Short‑Term Employment"

"A Composite Approach to Quantifying Clean Energy Jobs in Illinois'' (with Peter J. Fugiel and Abhinav Banthiya)

Reports and Other Writing

Forsythe, Eliza and Hesong Yang. “Understanding Unemployment Insurance Recipiency during the Covid-19 Pandemic” (2021) [Report prepared for the Department of Labor]

Report prepared for the Department of Labor Chief Evaluation Office Summer Data Challenge on Equity and Underserved Communities. http://publish.illinois.edu/elizaforsythe/files/2022/04/ForsytheYang_DOL.pdf