Research
Research
Working Papers
"Why Don’t Eligible Workers Receive Unemployment Insurance?", with Eliza Forsythe (Revise and Resubmit)
Abstract: The Unemployment Insurance (UI) system is plagued by under-receipt. Using data from 2018 and during the Covid-19 pandemic, we investigate the reasons likely-eligible individuals do not receive benefits. We find this is largely driven by erroneous beliefs about ineligibility, which are correlated with proxies for worker sophistication and information access. During the Covid-19 pandemic, we find misinformation about eligibility increased dramatically surrounding the expiration of the extra weekly UI payments in August 2020, suggesting uncertainty about UI program extensions contributes to misinformation and suppresses program take-up.
Abstract: Japanese employment is characterized by strong norms for employment protections; however, these “regular” jobs are primarily held by men. Women are concentrated in temporary, part-time, and contract positions (“non-regular” jobs), which offer significantly fewer employment protections. I investigate how female and male hiring rates evolve differently over the business cycle in Japan. First, I find that the overall cyclicality of hiring is driven by hiring into regular employment, as firms adjust their hiring practices strategically in response to business cycle conditions. Second, I find that hiring rates for women are more cyclical than for men, driven by hiring into non-regular employment. I further investigate the channel that drives the gender difference in hiring cyclicality. I find that the non-regular share of new hires for men is more counter-cyclical than for women, suggesting that men crowd women out of non-regular employment when labor markets are slack. Finally, I study the role of labor supply decisions and show that married women significantly influence the gender difference in hiring cyclicality. These results indicate that Japanese women face greater job security uncertainties and more fluid labor markets than men, especially during economic recessions, despite increasing female employment and labor participation.
"The Long-Term Wage Effects of Unemployment Rate at Graduation in Japan" (Draft available on SSRN)
Abstract: This paper investigates the long-term effects of labor market entry conditions on earnings in Japan, with a focus on gender disparities and the role of initial employment type at graduation. In the Japanese labor market, men are more likely to enter regular employment, characterized by permanent contracts and strong job security, while women are disproportionately represented in non-regular jobs, such as part-time, temporary, or fixed-term positions, which offer lower wages and fewer benefits. Exploiting temporal and regional variation in the unemployment rate at graduation, I estimate earnings trajectories over the first 20 years of labor market experience. First, I find that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate at graduation is associated with a 6.5% decline in contemporaneous earnings for men during the first decade, with the effect fading in the second decade. For women, the estimated effect is smaller (–0.6%) and statistically insignificant. Second, I find that higher unemployment at graduation significantly reduces the likelihood of securing regular employment by 4.7% for men and 3.8% for women. Third, I find that starting one’s career in non-regular employment amplifies wage penalties, with earnings losses of 18.4% for men and 13.6% for women over the first decade, with the wage effects diminishing for men over the second decade. These large penalties are driven by a reduced probability of transitioning into regular employment in subsequent years: 2.1% lower for men and 3.4% lower for women per percentage point increase in the unemployment rate at graduation. Overall, the findings suggest that the costs of entering the labor market during economic downturns are disproportionately borne by workers with less than 10 years of labor market experience, particularly those who begin in non-regular employment. For women who begin their careers in non-regular employment, the long-term consequences appear more persistent.
Working In Progress
"Renewable Energy Economic Analysis" (with Linda Larsen, Peter J. Fugiel, and Zichang Liu)
"A Composite Approach to Quantifying Clean Energy Jobs in Illinois'' (with Peter J. Fugiel and Abhinav Banthiya)
Reports and Other Writing
Forsythe, Eliza and Hesong Yang. “Understanding Unemployment Insurance Recipiency during the Covid-19 Pandemic” (2021) [Report prepared for the Department of Labor]
Report prepared for the Department of Labor Chief Evaluation Office Summer Data Challenge on Equity and Underserved Communities. http://publish.illinois.edu/elizaforsythe/files/2022/04/ForsytheYang_DOL.pdf