Research

Publications and Accepted Papers

"Gender Segregation and Hiring in Japanese Labor Markets over the Business Cycle" (Economic Analysis and Policy)

Yang, H. (2026). Gender segregation and hiring in japanese labor markets over the business cycle. Economic Analysis and Policy, 91:1033–1054. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2026.03.043

Abstract: Japanese employment norms strongly protect "regular'' jobs, which are predominantly held by men, while women are concentrated in "non-regular'' positions such as temporary or part-time jobs with fewer protections. This paper investigates how male and female hiring rates respond differently to labor market tightness within Japan's rigid two-track employment system. I find that female hiring is significantly more cyclical than male hiring. Although hiring into regular employment accounts for most of the aggregate hiring cyclicality, the gender difference arises almost entirely from hiring into non-regular employment. I show that this cannot be explained by the composition of industries and occupations, nor by gender-specific labor supply decisions. Instead, the evidence points toward firm-side selection as the primary mechanism. These findings suggest that labor market policies in Japan should aim to stabilize women’s hiring outcomes over the business cycle by addressing structural labor market segmentation and firm-side selection, especially during economic downturns.

"Why Don’t Eligible Workers Receive Unemployment Insurance?'', joint with Eliza Forsythe (Applied Economics Letters)

Forsythe, E., & Yang, H. (2026). Why don’t eligible workers receive unemployment insurance? Applied Economics Letters, 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2026.2615173

Abstract: The Unemployment Insurance (UI) system is plagued by under-receipt. We investigate the reasons likely-eligible individuals do not receive benefits. We find this is largely driven by erroneous beliefs about ineligibility, which are correlated with proxies for worker sophistication and information access. During the Covid-19 pandemic, we find misinformation about eligibility increased dramatically surrounding the expiration of the extra weekly UI payments in August 2020, suggesting uncertainty about UI program extensions contributes to misinformation and suppresses program take-up.

Working Papers

"Scarred Careers, Not Scarred Wages? Labor Market Conditions at Entry and Employment Tracks in Japan"  (Under Review)

Abstract: This paper studies how labor market conditions at entry shape the employment type and earnings of Japanese workers, and how these effects differ between men and women in Japan's dual-track employment system. I combine repeated cross-sections of the Japanese General Social Survey (2000-2018) with restricted-use prefecture codes and construct prefecture-level unemployment rates for 1986-2018. The unemployment rate at graduation is assigned by the prefecture of residence at age 15 and the expected year of graduation, both of which are determined before labor market entry. I find that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate at graduation is associated with a 3.2 percentage point decrease in the probability of obtaining a regular first job for men and a 2.3 percentage point decrease for women, with an offsetting increase in non-regular first jobs. For men, the probability of holding a regular job remains lower throughout the first 30 years of potential experience, while for women it does not. The effects on contemporaneous annual real earnings are small and statistically insignificant for both genders, except for men without a college degree, who experience a 6.1% decline in earnings during the first ten years of potential experience.

"Policy Uncertainty and Labor Market Fluidity"

Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of state-level economic policy uncertainty on labor market fluidity in the United States. I construct individual-level hiring and exit indicators from the basic monthly CPS and merge them with a state-by-month measure of policy uncertainty covering 2006 through 2014. Preliminary results show that higher policy uncertainty is associated with lower hiring and exit rates, and that the reduction in exits operates through employer-to-employer moves and exits out of the labor force rather than through transitions into unemployment via layoffs, completed temporary jobs, or quits. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the decline in exits is larger for young workers than for experienced workers, suggesting reduced job mobility among young workers. I also show that the exit response is associated more closely with uncertainty about state and local policy than with uncertainty about national policy.

"Local Employment Impacts of Solar and Wind Project Energization in Illinois" (with Zichang Liu) 

Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of large-scale solar and wind project energization on local employment outcomes in Illinois. We combine project-level data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration with American Community Survey microdata aggregated to the Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA) level from 2014 to 2023. To identify the employment effects of project energization, we pair propensity score matching with a recently developed event-study difference-in-differences estimator that accommodates staggered treatment timing and heterogeneous treatment effects. Preliminary results show that wind energization raises local employment, with gains concentrated in construction, while solar energization produces a smaller effect in the same direction. We discuss two potential mechanisms that may contribute to these effects: increased local tax revenues and complementary investment in electricity grid infrastructure.

"Regulatory Frictions and the Retail Pass-Through of Renewable Energy Shocks" (with Rong Yuwen)

Research In Progress 

"Cyclical Job Destruction, Human Capital Investment, and Gendered Sorting in Long‑ and Short‑Term Employment"

Reports and Other Writing

Forsythe, Eliza and Hesong Yang. “Understanding Unemployment Insurance Recipiency during the Covid-19 Pandemic” (2021) [Report prepared for the Department of Labor]

Report prepared for the Department of Labor Chief Evaluation Office Summer Data Challenge on Equity and Underserved Communities. http://publish.illinois.edu/elizaforsythe/files/2022/04/ForsytheYang_DOL.pdf