The Wisconsin Guarantee: A Top Percent Policy’s Impact on Flagship Access
I am working with data partners on disclosure review. A draft of my job market paper will be available soon.
Policies that guarantee admission to the flagship university for the highest-performing students from every high school in the state have the potential to make enrollment more proportionally representative of the state's high schools. However, existing evidence shows that these policies have only a modest impact on high school to flagship enrollment patterns. It is unclear whether these policies fail to induce new applications, fail to alter admissions decisions, or both. This paper studies Wisconsin's new top percent policy at the state flagship, UW–Madison, where students in the top five percent of their high school class are now guaranteed admission. I estimate the policy's effect on in-state students' application decisions using a difference-in-differences design comparing Wisconsin and Minnesota high school graduates. I then use guarantee-ineligible applicants from Wisconsin to model in-state admissions under UW–Madison's holistic review process and estimate whether guarantee-eligible applicants would have been admitted in the absence of the guarantee. Finally, I document changes in the distribution of UW–Madison's in-state freshmen across Wisconsin high schools following the policy's introduction. This paper provides quasi-experimental evidence on the impacts of top percent policies across various stages of the college access pipeline and locates where along the pipeline these policies do or do not affect college access.
Unstably-Housed Students & School Suspension
Draft under disclosure review ahead of journal submission.
Unstably-housed students are substantially more likely to be suspended from school than their stably-housed peers, but less is known about whether disciplinary incidents are related to specific housing-related events these students face. I use linked administrative data from Wisconsin’s Homeless Management Information System and public schools to study whether students are more likely to be suspended from school during weeks in which they enroll in homeless shelters or services. The data identify the specific timing of both shelter or service enrollment and school suspension, allowing me to compare suspension risk during and outside periods of housing-related shocks or transitions. I estimate numerous model specifications and conduct a placebo test to study the robustness of my findings. The evidence from this paper can inform whether unstably-housed students could benefit from additional school-based support during periods of housing-related shocks or transitions.
College’s Labor Market Strength & Effects on Earnings
[Link to Paper] An earlier version of this served as my field paper.
Where students attend college may shape their earnings not only through the characteristics of that institution, but also through the labor markets surrounding that college. This paper examines whether the strength of a college's local labor market affects graduates' post-college earnings. Because students' location preferences may jointly determine where they attend college and where they subsequently work, I use college application portfolios to identify and account for revealed location preferences. I study this question using two data sources: the nationally drawn Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 and administrative data from the Texas Education Research Center. Among students willing to attend college outside their home state, I find that attending college in a labor market where bachelor's degree holders earn $10,000 more annually increases graduates' early-career earnings by $2,200-2,400. Mediation analysis suggests that this operates through graduates' subsequent work locations: attending college in a stronger labor market increases the likelihood of working in a stronger labor market. In contrast, for students choosing among public universities within Texas and remaining in the state for work, I find little evidence that colleges' local labor market strength affects earnings one or five years after graduation. Together, these findings suggest that college location can affect graduates' earnings by impacting the region in which a college graduate enters the labor market, but that differences in a college's labor market strength within the same region do not impact graduates' earnings.
Expanding Income-Eligibility for a Tuition Promise with Mikhail Kouliavtsev [Link to Slides]
Quantifying Non-Sampling Variation: College Quality and the Garden of Forking Paths with Lois Miller & Jeffrey Smith [Link to Slides]
The Role of Student Debt on Major Choice and Labor Market Outcomes with Annemarie Schweinert & Andrew Smith