Urban Exodus

The COVID-19 pandemic has catalyzed significant population movements, with effects extending beyond the immediate term and influencing medium to long-term demographic trends. A notable manifestation of this is the phenomenon of urban exodus, characterized by the migration of populations from dense urban centers to the suburban fringes of metropolitan areas. This shift has precipitated an unanticipated demographic growth in the suburbs of Japanese metropolitan regions, reversing a longstanding trend of population decline.

Despite the conclusion of the pandemic's acute phase, the ramifications of this urban exodus continue to present both challenges and opportunities for suburban areas. In this context, Dr. Haruka Kato's research delves into strategies that may enable these suburbs to maintain and potentially capitalize on this influx of population in the future. His work involves a detailed analysis of Japanese case studies, aiming to elucidate how suburban areas, traditionally experiencing population decline, can adapt to and sustain the newfound demographic growth triggered by the pandemic-induced urban exodus. This research is particularly pertinent in informing urban planning and policy-making, geared towards fostering resilient and thriving suburban communities in the post-pandemic landscape.

Why Did Urban Exodus Occur during the COVID-19 Pandemic from the Perspective of Residential Preference of Each Type of Household? Case of Japanese Metropolitan Areas. 

Sustainability Vol.15 Issue 4. No.3315. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15043315

The background of this study is the urban exodus that occurred in Japanese metropolitan areas. The research question of this study is about the reasons why the urban exodus occurred in Japanese metropolitan areas. For the analysis, the objective of this study is to clarify the residential preferences of each household type in relation to the urban exodus during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japanese metropolitan areas. The method of this study is a web questionnaire survey. The sample comprised 593 respondents who migrated from ordinance-designed cities to other municipalities in metropolitan areas between April 2020 and March 2022. In conclusion, this study elucidates that migrant household type as urban exodus is households whose eldest child had enrolled in elementary school or above. Regarding residential preferences, the household type changes the importance of community and environment, rather than the working arrangement. This result is novel and essential because it clarifies that the household type tends to place more importance on the quality of childcare environment, ties to communities, the presence of a large garden/balcony, and utilizing opportunities to experience the community, such as via trial migration support programs.

Impact of the Urban Exodus Triggered by the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Shrinking Cities of the Osaka Metropolitan Area.

Sustainability, Vol.14, Issue. 3, No.1601. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14031601

This study aims to clarify the impact of the urban exodus triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic on shrinking cities in the Osaka metropolitan area, where a declining population is caused by population aging. Analyzing the Osaka metropolitan area enables us to clarify how cities are shrinking due to the urban exodus. This study analyzed the monthly population data of three types of municipalities: ordinance-designed/regional hub cities, ordinary cities, and towns/villages. In conclusion, the study clarified that population change due to the urban exodus occurred in the ordinance-designed/regional hub and ordinary cities from summer to autumn 2020. The most significant population increases occurred in the municipalities in the Osaka metropolitan fringe area, which are located more than 30 km away from the center of the Osaka metropolitan area. The conclusion is important because the population increased not only in the ordinance-designed cities but also in the ordinance-designed/regional hub cities, unlike the rest of the metropolitan area. The result is the new insights unique to the Osaka metropolitan area that this study clarified. The urban exodus contributes to the need for the local governments of shrinking cities to maintain the urban services necessary for people’s daily lives.

Human mobility and infection from Covid-19 in the Osaka metropolitan area.

npj Urban Sustainability, Vol.2, No. 20. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-022-00066-w 

Controlling human mobility is thought to be an effective measure to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to clarify the human mobility types that impacted the number of COVID-19 cases during the medium-term COVID-19 pandemic in the Osaka metropolitan area. The method used in this study was analysis of the statistical relationship between human mobility changes and the total number of COVID-19 cases after two weeks. In conclusion, the results indicate that it is essential to control the human mobility of groceries/pharmacies to between −5 and 5% and that of parks to more than −20%. The most significant finding for urban sustainability is that urban transit was not found to be a source of infection. Hence governments in cities around the world may be able to encourage communities to return to transit mobility, if they are able to follow the kind of hygiene processes conducted in Osaka.

Time series cross-correlation between home range and number of infected people during the COVID-19 pandemic in a suburban city.

PLoS ONE, Vol. 17, Issue. 9, No. e0267335. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267335 

Control of human mobility is one of the most effective measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the imposition of emergency restrictions had significant negative impacts on citizens’ daily lives. As vaccination progresses, we need to consider more effective measures to control the spread of the infection. The research question of this study is as follows: Does the control of home range correlate with a reduction in the number of infected people during the COVID-19 pandemic? This study aims to clarify the correlation between home range and the number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ibaraki City. Home ranges are analyzed by the Minimum Convex Polygon method using mobile phone GPS location history data. We analyzed the time series cross-correlation between home range lengths and the number of infected people. Results reveal a slight positive correlation between home range and the number of infected people after one week during the COVID-19 pandemic. Regarding home range length, the cross-correlation coefficient is 0.4030 even at a lag level of six weeks, which has the most significant coefficient. Thus, a decrease in the home range is a weak factor correlated with a reduction in the number of infected people. This study makes a significant contribution to the literature by evaluating key public health challenges from the perspective of controliing the spread of the COVID-19 infectuion. Its findings has implications for policy makers, practitioners, and urban scientists seeking to promote urban sustainability.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Home Range in a Suburban City in the Osaka Metropolitan Area.

Sustainability, Vol.13 Issue16, No.8974. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13168974 

This study aims to clarify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on home range. The home range is the area that individuals traverse in conducting their daily activities, such as working and shopping. In Japan, the central government declared the first state of emergency in April 2020. This study analyzed the panel data for mobile phone GPS location history from April 2019 to April 2020 in Ibaraki City, Osaka Metropolitan area. The study applied the minimum convex polygon method to analyze the data. The results show that the home range decreased significantly between April 2019 and April 2020. Specifically, the home range in 2020 decreased to approximately 50% of that in 2019 because of COVID-19 infection control measures, preventing people from traveling far from their homes and only allowing them to step outside for the bare minimum of daily activities and necessities. The results suggest that the emergency reduced people’s home ranges to the neighborhood scale. Therefore, it is necessary to consider designing new walkable neighborhood environments after the COVID-19 pandemic era.

Development of a Spatio-temporal Analysis Method to Support the Prevention of COVID-19 Infection: Space-Time Kernel Density Estimation Using GPS Location History Data.

S. C. M. Geertman, Christopher Pettit, Robert Goodspeed and Aija Staffans (ed), Urban informatics for future cities, Springer Nature Switzerland AG, pp.51-67. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-76059-5_4 

This study aims to develop a spatio-temporal analysis method to support planning for the prevention of a COVID-19 infection. The method focused on the space-time kernel density estimation using the GPS location history data. The data is GPS location data obtained at regular intervals from smartphones with the consent of the users. The research method was a panel data analysis for April 2019 and April 2020 with Ibaraki City. In April 2020, the Japanese government implemented a soft lockdown. As a result, this study developed a spatio-temporal analysis method that visualizes the space-time with high population density. Using these methods, local governments can restrict people’s lives by designating specific space-time areas. In addition, the method helps citizens to change their lifestyle behaviors and cooperate in the prevention of COVID-19 infection. The method is an alternative to the Japanese soft lockdown, which was based on an emergency declaration. In the future, this method will be utilized for data analysis in future smart cities.

DataChanges in Walkable Streets during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Suburban City in the Osaka Metropolitan Area.

Sustainability, Vol.13, Issue 13. No.7442, https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137442

The purpose of this study was to identify the walkable streets where traffic behavior changed according to each residential cluster during the COVID-19 pandemic. By elucidating the changes, it is possible to identify streets that should be redesigned following the changes in traffic behavior in relation to human mobility. This study analyzed Ibaraki City, a suburban city located in the Osaka Metropolitan Area. The analysis compared the panel data of the GPS Location History for April 2020 and April 2019. The analysis method used was Empirical Bayesian kriging. The results show that the speed significantly increased in the dense, sprawl, mountain, and old NT clusters. It was also found that the number of cyclists increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results suggest a need to design walkable streets according to each residential cluster for the post-COVID-19 pandemic era. For example, some car lanes need to be converted to bike lanes in the main neighborhood to create walkable streets in the clusters.

Grants (Principal Investigator)


April 2023 - February 2024

New Migration Policies for Peri-Metropolitan Cities Based on the "Urban Exodus" triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, Sasakawa Scientific Research Grant, Japan Science Society, No. 2023-1001, JPY 750,000

 

 

April 2022 - March 2023

Time-series analysis of the changes in home range and the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 using GPS location history big data: Toward the walkable city, Incentive Research, Dai-ichi Life Foundation, JPY 800,000