Research

Abstract: We provide the first causal estimates of the community-wide costs of U.S. immigration enforcement, using novel geocoded ICE enforcement data from high-enforcement areas across U.S. between January 2025 and January 2026 and weekly establishment-level foot traffic data. We find that visits to locations within 0.5 miles of reported ICE enforcement decline by 1.69 percent, with no detectable rebound over the subsequent seven weeks. Both contact and non-contact operations lead to declines in visits, consistent with community-wide deterrence rather than direct confrontation. Education facilities experience the largest declines in visits, followed by worker-intensive and consumer-facing establishments, while healthcare establishments show no detectable effects. The deterrence effect is not confined to directly targeted populations: visits decline from both Hispanic-concentrated and predominantly White neighborhoods, and across industries with both high immigrant and high native workforce shares. We find no evidence of substitution effects at untreated establishments elsewhere in the county. Combined per-establishment costs across labor, education, and consumer channels combined total approximately over 10 times the DHS per-removal benchmark. Complementary analyses find no evidence of associations with formal job postings or local crime rates, suggesting that these costs are unlikely to be offset by countervailing benefits.

Conference: Economics of Race, Racism, and Structural Inequality (Duke University, scheduled)

Abstract: How should zoning policy protect children from local disamenities? I answer this question using minimum-distance buffers between cannabis retailers and schools in Los Angeles, combining hyperlocal reduced-form evidence with a spatial entry model. Linking administrative data on 600,000 LAUSD students to geocoded retailer openings, I estimate event-study designs with student and zipcode-by-semester fixed effects. Retailer proximity increases drug-related suspensions and reduces GPA, with effects concentrated within 0.5 miles (school exposure) and 0.3 miles (neighborhood exposure); both sharpen after California's 2017 recreational legalization. Long-run estimates show school exposure reduces high school graduation by 1.2 pp and college enrollment by 0.9 pp; neighborhood exposure reduces these by 0.4 and 0.5 pp. Embedding these estimates in a spatial location-choice model, I evaluate policies by net human-capital gains minus foregone tax revenue. The welfare-maximizing buffer is 0.5 miles, yielding $251.0M in human-capital gains and $112.7M in net welfare over the current 600-feet rule. A Pigouvian tax calibrated to the estimated externality generates $210.5M in net welfare while preserving greater fiscal revenue. 

Conference: 1st Human Capital Conference (TSE, scheduled); Southern Economic Association (SEA, scheduled)

Abstract: We investigate how targeted groups react politically to racially motivated hate crimes within their communities. Combining incident-level administrative data on hate crimes in Los Angeles County from 2014 to 2022 with individual voter files, we exploit the hyperlocal variation in the geography and timing of these crimes. We find that serious anti-Hispanic hate crimes increase voter turnout among nearby Hispanics by 1.6 percentage points compared to nearby Whites. Communities with dense Hispanic populations and Hispanic advocacy and community service organizations are primarily responsible for this mobilization effect. Moreover, we demonstrate that hate crimes are associated with shifts in voters' policy preferences, particularly in the areas of crime prevention and affirmative action. Despite this, we do not find any significant differences in political participation among Black and Asian American communities following anti-Black and anti-Asian hate crimes, respectively. Los Angeles County's large Hispanic population and extensive network of community organizations may play an important role in fostering mobilization.