Research

My research experience spans diverse theoretical and empirical areas, including crime economics, labour economics, health economics, industrial organization, and game theory. Throughout my academic career, I have sought to understand how economic incentives and institutional structures shape individual behaviour and societal outcomes across these diverse domains. In recent years, my primary focus has shifted toward health economics and outcomes research. My work aims to contribute to evidence-based policymaking by integrating rigorous econometric methods with real-world data to better understand how health systems can improve efficiency, equity, and patient well-being. Below are key contributions from my work published in top-tier, refereed journals: 

• 2026: "Data-Driven Phenotypes across the Full AKI Severity Spectrum in Patients Admitted to the ICU, "

• Global, regional, and national sepsis incidence and mortality, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis

 Lancet Global Health, 2025, online first. Link 

(with GBD 2021 Global Sepsis Collaborators)

• Pension reforms and couples' labour supply decisions

 Labour Economics, 2024, 91: 102627. Link 

(with Patrick Puhani and Joanna Tyrowicz)

• Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

 The Lancet, 403.10440: 2204-2256. Link 

(with GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators)

• A nonparametric approach to evolutionary oligopoly games: an application to the crude oil industry Economic Modelling, 2021, 101: 105547.  Link

• 2020: "Price and non-price competition in an oligopoly: an analysis of relative payoff maximizers," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 30: 507–521. Link

• 2018: "Asymmetric oligopoly and evolutionary stability," Mathematical Social Sciences, 96: 1–9. Link (with Wolfgang Leininger)

• 2011: "The socioeconomic and demographic determinants of crime in Iran (a regional panel study)," European Journal of Law and Economics, 32(1): 99–114. Link (with G. K. Haddad)

In my current research, I employ causal machine learning methodologies to draw robust inferences from observational studies, leveraging high-dimensional individual-level health databases. 

• A causal analysis of the impact of early antibacterial therapy on ICU patient outcomes for sepsis (joint with Nader M. Moghaddam)

Under Review at BMC Infectious Diseases. Preprint available here and Download Poster

In this ongoing study, we assess the causal effect of timely antibiotic administration on sepsis outcomes using a Double Machine Learning (DML) approach. We utilized the eICU Collaborative Research Database to evaluate the effects of administering antibiotics within the first three hours of sepsis recognition, following the Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines. Preliminary findings suggest that early treatment significantly reduces the length of hospital and ICU stays, with a reduction of -1.73 days (95% CI [-2.33, -1.13]) for hospital stays and -0.67 days (95% CI [-0.98, -0.37]) for ICU stays. However, no significant impact was found on mortality rates, highlighting the importance of timely treatment for improving resource utilization and patient recovery.

• COPD Prevalence and Urbanization (joint with Nader M. Moghaddam, Arash Rashidian, and Eugenio Zucchelli, work in progress)

This study explores the impact of urbanization on COPD prevalence and mortality, with a focus on addressing causal challenges. Using preliminary data from the Global Burden of Disease study, WHO, and environmental datasets, we employ a Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression framework with historical urbanization proxies as instrumental variables. Our work-in-progress highlights disparities by socioeconomic factors and aims to inform urban and health policies. This research contributes to understanding the links between urbanization and chronic diseases, aligning with global health priorities.

• Racial disparities in ICU patient outcomes (joint with Eugenio Zucchelli and Owen O'Donnell, work in progress)
  This research examines racial disparities in patient outcomes in intensive care units, investigating how systemic factors and healthcare access contribute to unequal health outcomes across different racial groups.

• The Effect of Retirement on Health: Evidence from Blood Samples (joint with Patrick A. Puhani, work in progress)
  Utilizing data from the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA), this project explores how retirement, as an exogenous shock to lifestyle, influences health outcomes, particularly focusing on physical activity and self-reported health satisfaction. Our preliminary findings suggest that retirement leads to increased physical activity and higher health satisfaction in England.