Working papers


Inflation since the Pandemic: Lessons and Challenges

with Adam Shapiro, A. Lee Smith, and Daniel Villar


Supply Chain Networks and the Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms 

with Saten Kumar, Samreen Malik, Jordan J. Norris, and Mathieu Pedemonte


The Expectations of Others [Cleveland Fed WP] [Research [in] Brief]

with Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, and Raphael Schoenle

Revise and resubmit, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics


Predictable Forecast Errors in Full-Information Rational Expectations Models with Regime Shifts 

with André Kurmann 


Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation [Cleveland Fed WP], [Media coverage: Bloomberg, CNN, Brookings]

with Edward Knotek, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, Robert Rich, Raphael Schoenle

Revised and resubmitted, Journal of Monetary Economics


Publications

forthcoming, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics


The Fundamental Group of SO(n) Via Quotients of Braid Groups

with Orlin Stoytchev

accepted for publication, Rendiconti dell'Istituto di Matematica dell'Università di Trieste 


Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence [Cleveland Fed WP]

with Edward Knotek, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, Robert Rich, Raphael Schoenle

July 2024, Journal of Monetary Economics, 145, 103568.


Wealth Effects, Price Markups, and the Neo-Fisherian Hypothesis [Cleveland Fed WP], [Online Appendix]

with Marco Airaudo, August 2023, European Economic Review, 157, 104482.


Consistent Expectations Equilibria in Markov Regime Switching Models and Inflation Dynamics

with Marco Airaudo, November 2021, International Economic Review, 62(4), 1401-1430.


Work in progress

Consistent Expectations Equilibria with Imperfect Common Knowledge: Implications for the Forward Guidance 

with Marco Airaudo


Monetary Policy and Asset Prices with Infinite Horizon Learning

with Marco Airaudo