Public Spending and Inclusive Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis
with D. Park, B. Hasan, J. Beirne, G. S. Uddin
Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 162, February 2026, 103528, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103528
Macro-Financial Impacts of Foreign Digital Money
with A. Copestake, E. Papageorgiou, S. J Peiris, U. Rawat, B. Tan
Economics Letters, Volume 255, September 2025, 112458, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112458
How does disaster risk impact fiscal sustainability and inequality?
with D. Park, J. Beirne, G. S. Uddin
Economic Modelling, Volume 151, October 2025, 107220 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107220
Climate Change and Carbon Policy: A Story of Optimal Green Macroprudential and Capital Flow Management
Energy Economics, Vol 146, May 2025, 108501, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108501
Green targeted lending operations in the Euro Area
with B. Lucey and G. S Uddin
Economics Letters, Vol 243, October 2024, 111893, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111893
Central Bank Digital Currency and Cryptocurrency in Emerging Markets
International Economics, Vol 181, March 2025, 100577, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100577
On the news: Edição do dia
Government Spending, Income Distribution, and Productivity Enhancing (Job Market Paper) (SSRN)
Abstract: This paper examines the distributional and innovation effects of fiscal spending. Using data for 154 countries from 1980 to 2023, I show that expansionary government spending persistently raises output and total factor productivity for more than 10 years while compressing income inequality. Under sanctions, the productivity effect of government spending is stronger when private sector resources are constrained. The innovation response is further strengthened in countries with a higher share of government investment, indicating that productive public spending is central to the transmission of our findings. Countries with a higher share of inclusive spending further intensify the inequality-reducing impact. A standard two-agent New Keynesian model with endogenous growth and productive public investment rationalizes the evidence and matches the dynamic responses, linking innovation-driven TFP gains to persistent output effects and distributional improvements.
Global fragmentation, fiscal policy, and economic growth: a cross-country analysis (with N.Yago, D. Park, J. Beirne, G. S. Uddin) (SSRN)
Abstract: This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of geopolitical risks and the role of fiscal sustainability in mitigating them. Our empirical analysis exploits a comprehensive database covering 121 countries from 1985 to 2023. We find that, in countries without fiscal rules, geopolitical fragmentation leads to a persistent decline in output and a surge in the debt-to-GDP ratio. However, in countries with fiscal rules, both output and debt are stabilized in the medium- to long-run. Moreover, fiscal rules have a more pronounced effect in countries with high central bank independence, suggesting a novel monetary-fiscal complementarity. We further explore various dimensions of cross-country heterogeneity, including economic development, political institutions, and climate risks. Finally, fiscal rules promote inclusive growth by mitigating the adverse distributional effects of geopolitical risks.
Transition Risk Uncertainty and Robust Optimal Monetary Policy (with A. Dueck, F. Jawadi, G. S. Uddin) (R&R at Macroeconomic Dynamics)
Abstract: Climate change has become one of the most prominent concerns globally. In this paper, we study the transition risk of greenhouse gas emission reduction in structural environmental-macroeconomic DSGE models. First, we analyze the uncertainty in model prediction on the effect of unanticipated and pre-announced carbon price increases. Second, we conduct optimal model-robust policy in different settings. We find that reducing emissions by 40% causes 0.7% - 4% output loss with 2% on average. Pre-announcement of carbon prices affects the inflation dynamics significantly. The central bank should react slightly less to inflation and output growth during the transition risk. With optimal carbon price designs, it should react even less to inflation, and more to output growth.
Macrofinancial Implications of Foreign Crypto Assets for Small Developing Economies (with A. Copestake, E. Papageorgiou, B. Tan), IMF Fintech Note 2023/012
Macro-Financial Impacts of Foreign Digital Money (with A. Copestake, E. Papageorgiou, S. J Peiris, U. Rawat, B. Tan), IMF Working Paper No. 2023/249
Disaster Risk, Inequality, and Fiscal Sustainability (with D. Park, J. Beirne, G. S. Uddin), ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 750 | November 2024
Carbon Policy and Inclusive Growth (with D. Park, J. Beirne, G. S. Uddin), ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 804 | October 2025
Public Spending and Inclusive Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis (with D. Park, B. Hasan, J. Beirne, G. S. Uddin), ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 815| October 2025
Energy Prices and Household Heterogeneity: Monetary Policy in a Gas-TANK (by Jenny Chan, Sebastian Diz, Derrick Kanngiesser) Slides
Mitigating Policies for Pollutant Emissions in a DSGE for the Brazilian Economy (by Marcos Valli Jorge, Angelo M Fasolo, Silvio Michel de Azevedo Costa) Slides