Macro-Financial Impacts of Foreign Digital Money
with A. Copestake, E. Papageorgiou, S. J Peiris, U. Rawat, B. Tan
Economics Letters, Volume 255, September 2025, 112458, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112458
How does disaster risk impact fiscal sustainability and inequality?
with D. Park, J. Beirne, G. S. Uddin
Economic Modelling, Volume 151, October 2025, 107220 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107220
Climate Change and Carbon Policy: A Story of Optimal Green Macroprudential and Capital Flow Management
Energy Economics, Vol 146, May 2025, 108501, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108501
Green targeted lending operations in the Euro Area
with B. Lucey and G. S Uddin
Economics Letters, Vol 243, October 2024, 111893, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111893
Central Bank Digital Currency and Cryptocurrency in Emerging Markets
International Economics, Vol 181, March 2025, 100577, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100577
On the news: Edição do dia
Government Spending, Income Distribution, and Productivity Enhancing (Job Market Paper) (SSRN)
Abstract: We investigate the effects of different components of government spending on inclusive growth. More specifically, we consider the inclusive impact of government spending on environmental protection, health, education, and social protection, all of which can conceivably promote inclusive growth. For our empirical analysis, we employ panel regressions and local projections using a comprehensive database of 191 countries spanning the period from 1980 to 2023. Our evidence indicates that equity-promoting government spending reduces income inequality, as measured by the Gini index, and improves human development indicators. Moreover, our analysis reveals that poorer households benefit disproportionately, suggesting that targeted fiscal expenditures can promote equity. Notably, the inclusive effects are most pronounced in advanced economies, where robust fiscal frameworks support and amplify such effects. In contrast, emerging and developing economies experience more modest gains. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of well-designed public spending programs for equitable growth. Finally, we conduct state-dependent local projections and regional sub-sample analysis.
Public Spending and Inclusive Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis (with D. Park, B. Hasan, J. Beirne, G. S. Uddin), (Presented at RES Multilateral Surveillance Seminar (IMF), Bank of Korea, OECD) (R&R at Journal of International Money and Finance)
Abstract: We investigate the effects of different components of government spending on inclusive growth. More specifically, we consider the inclusive impact of government spending on environmental protection, health, education, and social protection, all of which can conceivably promote inclusive growth. For our empirical analysis, we employ panel regressions and local projections using a comprehensive database of 191 countries spanning the period from 1980 to 2023. Our evidence indicates that equity-promoting government spending reduces income inequality, as measured by the Gini index, and improves human development indicators. Moreover, our analysis reveals that poorer households benefit disproportionately, suggesting that targeted fiscal expenditures can promote equity. Notably, the inclusive effects are most pronounced in advanced economies, where robust fiscal frameworks support and amplify such effects. In contrast, emerging and developing economies experience more modest gains. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of well-designed public spending programs for equitable growth. Finally, we conduct state-dependent local projections and regional sub-sample analysis.
Transition Risk Uncertainty and Robust Optimal Monetary Policy (with A. Dueck, F. Jawadi, G. S. Uddin) (R&R at Macroeconomic Dynamics)
Abstract: Climate change has become one of the most prominent concerns globally. In this paper, we study the transition risk of greenhouse gas emission reduction in structural environmental-macroeconomic DSGE models. First, we analyze the uncertainty in model prediction on the effect of unanticipated and pre-announced carbon price increases. Second, we conduct optimal model-robust policy in different settings. We find that reducing emissions by 40% causes 0.7% - 4% output loss with 2% on average. Pre-announcement of carbon prices affects the inflation dynamics significantly. The central bank should react slightly less to inflation and output growth during the transition risk. With optimal carbon price designs, it should react even less to inflation, and more to output growth.
Macrofinancial Implications of Foreign Crypto Assets for Small Developing Economies (with A. Copestake, E. Papageorgiou, B. Tan), IMF Fintech Note 2023/012
Macro-Financial Impacts of Foreign Digital Money (with A. Copestake, E. Papageorgiou, S. J Peiris, U. Rawat, B. Tan), IMF Working Paper No. 2023/249
Disaster Risk, Inequality, and Fiscal Sustainability (with D. Park, J. Beirne, G. S. Uddin), ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 750 | November 2024
Carbon Policy and Inclusive Growth (with D. Park, J. Beirne, G. S. Uddin), ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 804 | October 2025
Public Spending and Inclusive Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis (with D. Park, B. Hasan, J. Beirne, G. S. Uddin), ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 815| October 2025
Energy Prices and Household Heterogeneity: Monetary Policy in a Gas-TANK (by Jenny Chan, Sebastian Diz, Derrick Kanngiesser) Slides
Mitigating Policies for Pollutant Emissions in a DSGE for the Brazilian Economy (by Marcos Valli Jorge, Angelo M Fasolo, Silvio Michel de Azevedo Costa) Slides