Guillaume Paugam
guillaume.paugam@spi.ox.ac.uk
guillaume.paugam@london.gov.uk
Research interests
Labour markets, household employment, social and economic inequality, gender, social policy, Europe.
Associate member, Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford.
Labour Market Economist, City Intelligence Unit, Greater London Authority Since March 2024
· In-depth research on the London labour market working in the GLA’s in-house research and modelling team.
· Release of monthly Labour Market Updates summarising the state of London’s labour market using a variety of indicators, data sources, and data visualisation tools.
· Long-run research projects leading to internal or external publications and briefings of London policymakers on long-term illness and inactivity in London’s working-age population; the economic cost of ethnic inequalities on the London labour market; in-work poverty in London; the change in the nationality mix in the London workforce since Brexit.
· Contribution to the June 2024 State of London report on London’s economy.
· Presentation of work in various meetings and events to a variety of stakeholders across London’s economy.
· Working with various data sources: Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, PAYE-Real Time Information, Households Below Average Income. Training taken with the University of Essex to use Understanding Society.
· Use of the UKMOD tax-benefit modelling software.
PhD Researcher, Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford October 2019 – April 2024.
· First empirical chapter explores the extent to which European societies have been polarising between dual-jobless and dual-earning couples in the past forty years, and the reasons behind this polarisation.
· Second empirical chapter explores different models of inequality – across households and within households – in access to employment in general, and good quality employment more specifically using new indicators capturing the distribution of good work across households.
· Third empirical chapter studies the link between the German Hartz reforms and exits from dual-worklessness, to see whether exits become more likely and whether exits to precarious work specifically become more likely.
· Econometric methods applied: descriptive long-run trends, shift-share analyses, panel data regressions, event-history analyses, competing-risks models.
· Assembled very rich datasets from microdata (EU-Labour Force Survey and German Socioeconomic Panel). For the first two papers, dataset covers 27 countries over 37 years. For the third, reconstitution of German couples’ joint employment status on a monthly basis over 15 years.
Member of the Research Team, Europe’s Stories, Oxford Part-Time November 2020 to March 2021
· Leader of the team that wrote the social policy chapter in the 2021 report “Young Europeans Speak to EU” released by the Europe’s Stories think-tank.
· Gathered and analysed existing secondary data on Young Europeans’ views and desires about EU social and labour market policy.
· Analysed current policies and policy projects from the EU.
· Summarised both aspects and provided policy recommendations.
· Member of the polling team: helped design the March 2021 representative polling of EU citizens about social Europe and climate issues.
Research Assistant, SCHOOLPOL project, Oxford Part-Time November 2020 to March 2021
· Gathered quantitative and qualitative data on teaching unions, their history and their political influence and ties in different OECD countries. Inputted these data into Excel for use by the senior researchers on the project.
· Provided a brief written summary and analysis in each case.
University of Oxford 2019-2024
PhD
Dissertation: “Employment participation of European couples: polarisation, non-standard-employment and gender and social inequalities”.
Supervisor: Erzsébet Bukodi.
Examiners: Brian Nolan (internal), Susan Harkness (external).
University of Oxford 2017-2019
MPhil Comparative Social Policy.
69 average.
Distinction obtained for my MPhil dissertation.
The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) 2014-2017
BSc Government and Economics (First Class Degree).
Journal Publications
“The end of polarization? Evolutions of the distribution of employment across couples in Europe over the past 40 years”. Socio-Economic Review
https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwae031
Joint winner of the 2024 Barnett Prize awarded to the best paper from a graduate student at Oxford’s Department of Social Policy and intervention.
“The inequality trade-off? Employment inequalities across and within couples in the rise of dual earning” (resubmitted after a minor revisions Revise & Resubmit decision at Research in Social Stratification and Mobility).
Work in progress (aiming for journal publications)
“The effect of reducing the duration of unemployment benefits on the labour market transitions of older couples: evidence from Germany”.
“The polarisation of polarisation: linking the polarisation of jobs to the polarisation of household employment”.
"The UK two-child benefit limit and the labour market participation of larger families”.
Presented at conferences:
“The end of polarisation? The distribution of employment and standard employment among European couples since 1983”. Presented at the LAGV Public Economics Conference, June 2022, Marseille, France.
“A new perspective on the distribution of employment across couples”. Presented at the Public Economic Theory Conference, June 2022, Marseille, France.
“Worlds of polarisation? The evolution of standard and non-standard employment and their role in affecting the distribution of employment across couples in Europe”. Presented at the annual conference of the British Society for Population Studies, September 2022, Winchester, United-Kingdom, and at the ESPAnet annual conference, September 2022, Vienna, Austria.
Non-academic:
· London Labour Market Updates monthly since April 2024 for GLA Economics.
· PAYE employments by nationality in London – briefing note.
· Co-author with Kristijan Fidanovski of the social policy chapter in the 2021 report “Young Europeans speak to EU” published by Europe’s Stories.
Undergraduate tutor, Department of Social Policy and Intervention, Oxford April 2022 to March 2023
· Delivered tutorials to second and third year Oxford undergraduate students for the “Introduction to Social Policy” course.
· Topics covered included theories of the welfare-state, welfare-state historical developments, a critical analysis of evidence-based policymaking, and introduction to specialised topics such as labour market policy, poverty, education, family policy, immigration and the welfare-state, housing policy.
· Assessed students’ essays on a weekly basis, provided them with constructive feedback, prepared them for the exam through discussion on essays, extra revision sessions, and correcting mock exams.
· Provided student support such as discussions about postgraduate studies and letters of recommendation.
PhD students’ representative, Department of Social Policy and Intervention, Oxford December 2020 to October 2022
· Represented students and voiced their concerns and opinions on various departmental committees. Gathered their opinions by organising surveys as well as being reachable informally.
· Organised a series of career events with PhD alumni of DSPI from a range of sectors and career stages.
Trainee, Cabinet of the European Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights, European Commission, Brussels March to August 2021
· Provided weekly written summaries and verbal presentations in Cabinet meetings to the Commissioner about upcoming EU legislation proposals, highlighting their key and contentious points, on a wide range of issues, such as industrial policy, sustainable finance, the EU taxonomy, tax evasion.
· Particular focus on the Green Deal, which was adopted by the College at that time – briefed the Commissioner about Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, the reform to the EU-Emission Trading System, and the employment and social dimensions of the green transition.
· Provided some in-depth notes to the Cabinet on specific policy topics, for instance on the potential for “zombie firms” to hamper the job growth in the post-pandemic recovery context.
· Helped prepare long-run initiatives in the field of employment and social policy, such as the Social Economy Action Plan, in coordination with DG-EMPL.
· Contributed to memos and speeches for public interventions done by the Commissioner in front of various stakeholders (heads of states and governments, other Commissioners, national parliaments, MEPs, academics, lobby groips).
· Helped review some line-to-takes and other communication materials.
· Attended strategic meetings with a variety of key stakeholders: national ministers, other cabinets and Commissioners, MEPs, national civil servants, DG-EMPL, lobby groups.
Data analysis and modelling: Stata, R, UKMOD/EUROMOD, Excel.
Languages: English (fluent), French (native), Spanish (advanced).
Professor Erzsébet Bukodi, Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford, erzsebet.bukodi@spi.ox.ac.uk, +441865 270333
Professor Brian Nolan, University of Oxford, brian.nolan@spi.ox.ac.uk, +44186528889