Pandemic’s effect on Russia-Ukraine conflict
-Harinarayan
-Harinarayan
Since the Covid-19 pandemic most of the countries were facing problems, and Russia and Ukraine are no exceptions. The pandemic had a lot of indirect impact on the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, the war has been going for many years, the pandemic added a layer of complexity in it.
On 24 February 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine. Russia’s invasion came into role when Ukraine was just facing the wave of Covid-19 caused by Omicron strain. Ukraine started vaccination just a year before the war begin and was able to vaccinate only 36.93% of population.
The number of vaccinated people was much lower in the territories where hostilities were taking place and further vaccination also stopped. Even in the western Ukraine it was a huge burden on the medical institutes as a result of evacuation of large number of people(6.7million) including medical staff. In east and southern part of Ukraine, territories controlled by Ukraine including major cities such as Kyiv and Kharkiv with population over 1 million, only 2.5%-3% of the capacity of laboratories were operating for Covid-19 diagnosis from an article by BMJ Global Health Journal, April 2022
Ukraine so-called breadbasket of Europe was 5th largest exporter of wheat in 2020. Russia and Ukraine have exported a large number of agricultural products to conflict-affected nations as Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia etc. Covid-19 already triggered negative spiral effect on world’s food supply chain as a result of reduced production, restricted transportation and border restrictions. Even after the resumption of normalcy in most countries, food supply chains were not fully recovered and at that time war worsened the condition leading to food insecurity. In order to show its supremacy even during Covid-19 Russia conducted unusual oil pipeline maintenance, in addition to the 40% reduction of gas supply to most European countries.
Pandemic had affected economy, and then war had a knock-on effect on it. “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered one of the biggest human displacement crises and exacted a heavy toll on human and economic life,” said Anna Bjerde, World Bank Vice President for the Europe and Central Asia region. Same way Russia’s economy was also affected by Covid-19 which reduced the ability of Russia to provide financial and military support to separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. In this way there was reduction in intensity of the fighting in some areas, as the rebels have struggled to maintain their operations in the face of reduced resources.
In conclusion, the Covid-19 pandemic had influenced the ongoing war. It had drawn attention to humanitarian impact of the conflict, distracted political leaders from the issue. A lot of parties had its role in it and ultimately, it will require a sustained and combined effort from all parties involved to find a lasting solution to the conflict and pandemic. It will restore peace in the world again.