Broadly, our research investigates groundwater sustainability using a socio-hydrological modeling framework - Sustainability Assessment for the FuturE of GroundWater (SAFE-GW). We are especially interested in realistically understanding the co-evolution of policies, behaviors, and water resources as an emergent outcome due to the interactions among a set of components within the coupled natural-human system.
The research can broadly be categorized under three primary areas, namely:
A. Sustainable Cropping Practices,
B. Agricultural Water Management,
C. Conservation Behaviors
The research approach leverages theories, methods, and tools from hydrology, sociology, and geography as a transdisciplinary framework. As shown in the figure it features an ABM for characterizing behaviors of groundwater irrigation and coupled watershed-aquifer models for modeling surface water and groundwater interactions
The testbed is the Central Platte Natural Resource District (CPNRD) in Nebraska, a natural resource management district with highly intensive irrigation agriculture. The land use is dominated by cropland, pasture, and rangeland. Most farmers in this area rely on groundwater to meet their irrigation needs without regulatory restrictions. This has led to increasing demand for pumping and accompanying water stress compounded by drought events. Although being framed in CPNRD, the modeling framework is expected to result in generalizable knowledge of interactions and feedbacks between producers and aquifer systems, which are applicable to other irrigated agricultural regions
A. Sustainable Cropping Practices
Albeit numerous benefits of adding cover crops to existing cropping systems, there is an existing knowledge gap regarding the magnitude and long-term effect of regional cover crop installation.
Along with the positive environmental impacts of cover crops, what are their effects on agricultural water balance?
Is a regional installation of cover crops a viable option to counteract the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural water availability?
To address this questions, we utilized a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model some scenarios
B. Agricultural Water Management and Resilience
Enhancing resilience in agricultural systems involves implementing Agricultural Water Management (AWM) practices to mitigate risks, improve resource management, and promote adaptive strategies that ensure sustainable productivity despite vulnerabilities.
This study employed a water footprint (WF) accounting framework to quantify water usage and allow an assessment of the fluctuations brought about by changes in land use (winter cover crop installation) under changing climate conditions
We examined how the resilience of an agricultural watershed can be impacted by strategic AWM specifically the use of cover crops.
C. Conservation Behaviors
Presently, most research tends to focus on the one-way impact of anthropogenic factors such as groundwater pumping and land use on the water cycle. There is an absence of literature that documents the feedbacks and unanticipated emergent dynamics between social and hydrologic systems. Social system models often neglect the heterogeneity of individuals’ objectives, knowledge, and risk tolerances, resulting in oversimplified behavioral modeling and thereby unrealistic social interactions with physical models . This leaves an incomplete understanding of many critical questions, such as how attitudes, norms (such as awareness, and a sense of personal responsibility, perceived behavioral control, or peer pressure influence decisions, how environmental elements influence decision making, and how humans respond to policies that constrain water use. Answering these questions requires an examination of a complex interplay of sociological factors and environmental elements in irrigation decision-making processes.
We developed an agent-based model (ABM) in order to simulate irrigation behaviors in response to physical constraints and surface and groundwater dynamics. The ABM allows the representation of complex decision-making processes by defining collective actions using predefined behavioral rules.
We employed a two-stage multivariate analytical approach, using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis, to construct the farmer typologies. Thus, PCA was used to reduce 54 different variables into a new set of components measuring key latent constructs
Using PCA, selected scale variables were used to construct factors. These factors were rotated using the varimax method (this process tries to load a smaller number of highly correlated variables onto each component resulting in easier interpretation).
The project developed a socio-hydrological framework that integrated different models and data. This project directly yielded decision support tools that can calculate the effects of different water management strategies on surface water and groundwater flows in the watershed for the CPNRD and state water managers. The project results continue to be compiled into educational pamphlets on groundwater sustainability and disseminated to producers via a collaboration with the CPNRD and also available under the resources in this website. The results have been shared as oral presentations during various national and regional conferences as well as local events. Short informational videos shall also be prepared for broad dissemination through social media platforms including the resources page on this site. In addition to regular progress reports, datasets (following IRB guidelines), modeling codes, and reports shall be made available on this site as well as on GitHub. Further, the findings from this project will be directly used in my dissertation.