Gonzalez Casanova's Lab
Center for Mechanisms of Evolution
Biodesign Institute C, 4th Floor
Arizona State Univerity
Center for Mechanisms of Evolution
Biodesign Institute C, 4th Floor
Arizona State Univerity
The Gonzalez Casanova Lab works at the intersection of probability theory, mathematical biology, and data-driven modeling. Led by Adrian Gonzalez Casanova, the group develops mathematical and computational approaches to understand evolution, biodiversity, and complex biological systems.
Our research combines rigorous probability theory with biological applications, including stochastic modeling, simulation, interacting particle systems, and data-driven approaches. A central goal of the lab is to build mathematical frameworks that connect microscopic mechanisms, such as reproduction, dormancy, mutation, migration, and competition, with large-scale evolutionary and ecological behavior.
The lab is particularly interested in developing mechanism-based probabilistic models that can interact directly with empirical data, allowing mathematical theory to inform biological understanding and experimental practice.
Before joining Arizona State University, Adrian Gonzalez Casanova completed a postdoctoral fellowship at the Weierstrass Institute, served as assistant and associate professor at National Autonomous University of Mexico, and was a Neyman Visiting Assistant Professor at University of California, Berkeley.
His work has been recognized with the Itô Prize in 2017 and the Feldman Prize in 2022. He is also a member of the Latin American Academy of Sciences, serves on the long-term scientific committee of the Seminar on Stochastic Processes, and is an Associate Editor at ALEA.
Current research directions include:
In collaboration with Miraine Davila and Josué Corujo (both based in France), we study the evolution of connected components in random graphs that grow through the sequential addition of vertices. Surprisingly, the resulting dynamics reveal deep connections between two seemingly unrelated areas: the Fleming–Viot process from population genetics and the multiplicative coalescent from random graph theory. This project aims to better understand how genealogical and coalescent structures emerge in growing networks.
Inspired by the coloring-rule techniques introduced in recent work [12], we are developing a multidisciplinary framework that combines probability theory, ecology, evolutionary biology, and data science to infer competition networks from complex ecological data. By uncovering the interactions that structure biological communities, we aim to develop quantitative tools that can support conservation efforts, identify keystone species, and improve our understanding of the mechanisms that sustain biodiversity and ecosystem stability.
The population genetics of plasmids and endosymbionts presents a rich source of mathematical challenges arising from the interaction of evolutionary forces across multiple biological scales. Our research combines stochastic processes, population genetics, microbiology, and experimental evolution to understand how genetic variation is generated, maintained, and transmitted in these systems. By developing mathematical models informed by experimental data, we seek to uncover the mechanisms governing adaptation, persistence, and evolution in plasmid-bearing bacteria and host–symbiont associations. Particular emphasis is placed on the interplay between within-host and between-host dynamics, and on understanding how these interactions shape the long-term evolutionary fate of mobile genetic elements and symbiotic organisms. Representative contributions include [35, 22].
Moment duality has been a central theme of my research [34,28, 27,19,14,11,7]. In recent work with Ariel Offenstadt and Arno Siri-Jégousse, we have explored the deep connections between exchangeability and duality, using ideas from de Finetti theory to gain a better understanding of dual stochastic processes. This perspective has led to new constructions and characterizations of dualities arising in population genetics and interacting particle systems.
One of our long-term goals is to build a mathematical theory of experimental evolution. We develop probabilistic and population genetic models that connect evolutionary mechanisms, such as mutation, selection, and clonal interference, with observations from laboratory evolution experiments. This research program includes a mathematical analysis of the Long-Term Evolution Experiment, recognized with the Ito Prize in 2017 [6], and a data-driven study of evolutionary trajectories, awarded the Feldman Prize in 2022 [8]. And more recently [32], which deals with clonal interference.
Dormancy has been a long-standing research focus of our group. In [5], we introduced the Seed Bank Coalescent, a genealogical framework that captures the effects of dormancy on genetic diversity. Since then, we have continued to develop the theory and its applications, studying topics ranging from population genetics and evolution to stochastic processes and coalescent theory.
Interacting particle systems are among my favorite research topics. Viewing these models through the lens of population genetics and stochastic duality has often provided new insights and useful techniques. Our work includes contributions to the contact process [ 31], recent advances on the symmetric exclusion process, and ongoing projects on the voter model. More broadly, we are interested in understanding how local interactions give rise to large-scale phenomena in complex stochastic systems.
This research project forms the core of Imanol Nuñez's PhD thesis. Under the co-supervision of José Luis Pérez (CIMAT) and in close collaboration with Noemi Kurt (Frankfurt), we investigate the relationship between exchangeability and moment duality. By studying exchangeable Markov chains and their associated genealogical structures, we aim to develop a deeper understanding of duality and its role in probability theory and population genetics.
This is my main collaborative project with Johnny Yang, although he is involved in many other exciting research directions. Together, we study the emergence of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) from individual-based models, with a particular focus on universality phenomena. One of our goals is to understand the broad class of microscopic systems whose large-scale behavior is governed by equations such as the Fisher–Kolmogorov–Petrovsky–Piskunov (F-KPP) equation. This project is also a collaboration with Louis Fan (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill).
News:
Adrian presented a talk on Game Theory and Dormancy in the National Institute for Theory and Mathematics in Biology in Chicago. You can have a look here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnkRMzmdNY4
The image in the cover of PNAS January 2026 was produced by the first author of the paper Paula Ramiro-Martinez
Our recent work on plasmid evolution was published in PNAS and selected as the journal's cover article. The project addressed a fundamental question in microbial evolution: does increasing plasmid copy number increase or decrease the accumulation of neutral mutations? To answer this, our collaborators in the Rodríguez-Beltrán laboratory in Madrid developed a beautiful experimental system, which we complemented with mathematical and population genetic modeling. Together, these approaches revealed how plasmid copy number shapes mutation supply and evolutionary dynamics in bacterial populations.
Simulation by Felix Hermann
Our work on Clonal interference has appeared in Annals of Applied Probability https://projecteuclid.org/journals/annals-of-applied-probability/volume-35/issue-4/From-clonal-interference-to-Poissonian-interacting-trajectories/10.1214/25-AAP2188.short
A talk about Sample Duality, one of Adrian´s favorite topics, at the Probability Seminar at IMPA. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7WOahUHrNk
Contact: adrian.gonzalez.casanova.soberon [at] asu.edu