Research
Research
The Supply-Side Effects of India’s Demonetization (Under review)
I study the supply-side effects of a unique monetary shock – the 2016 Indian demonetization – that made 86% of currency in circulation illegal overnight. Exploiting cross-sectional variation in firm and industry characteristics that correlate with exposure to the informal sector and with cash usage, I find that firms that obtain larger shares of labor or material inputs from the informal sector, experienced declines in their labor and material shares after demonetization. I also show that casual laborers were more likely to report being unemployed in the months following demonetization. These findings document a supply channel for demonetization and also show that cash plays an essential role in India’s informal sector. Crucially, given that India’s formal sector is highly dependent on the informal sector for labor and materials, any shock to the supply of cash is likely to have affected the economy as a whole.
Presentations: Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) Annual Meeting at Harvard Business School & Boston Fed, 2025; Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, San Diego, 2020; NEUDC at Northwestern University, 2019, BC-BU GLMM at Boston University, Fall 2019
Media Coverage: Ideas for India | Scroll.in
Victims of Consequence: Evidence on Child Outcomes using Microdata from a Civil War (with Sajala Pandey)
We study the impact of violent events on contemporaneous parental decisions related to their children regarding child labor, education, and healthcare utilization. Using spatial and temporal variation from a unique database of local-level violent events due to a civil war in Nepal, we find that an increase in violent events: (i) leads to an increase in hours worked, with the effect being substantial for agricultural work done by young boys; (ii) results in a reduced likelihood of attending school, along with a decline in years of education; and (iii) decreases the likelihood of parents taking their children to visit a healthcare facility to seek curative care. Parents’ fear of victimization due to increased mortality risks may affect decisions related to their children. This mechanism, suggested by theory, is likely to be an operative channel.
In this project, I collaborated with a cross-functional team to estimate the employment impact of Apple's business activities in the US and several global regions leveraging granular supplier-level information on total amount spent by Apple on goods and services. We designed presentations to summarize YoY employment dynamics caused by macroeconomic forces, structural changes, and business-level changes in spend. Annual study results were presented to the client.
Link to study description on Apple's website: https://www.apple.com/job-creation/
In this study, economists from the Analysis Group estimated that App Store developers generated >$1 trillion in total billings and sales in the App Store ecosystem in 2022. More than 90% of billings and sales accrued solely to developers, without any commission paid to Apple. The study underscores the strength and resilience of the App Store ecosystem, with billings and sales facilitated by the App Store growing nearly 30% YoY.
Link to the study by economist from Analysis Group: https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2023/05/developers-generated-one-point-one-trillion-in-the-app-store-ecosystem-in-2022/
Link to white paper: https://www.apple.com/newsroom/pdfs/the-continued-growth-and-resilience-of-apples-app-store-ecosystem.pdf
Data Appendix for Integrated Household Surveys: An Assessment of U.S. Methods and An Innovation (by Samphantharak, Schuh, Townsend, Economic Inquiry, 2017)
While at the Boston Fed, I worked on a project that attempted to construct integrated household financial accounts (balance sheet, income statements, and cash flow statements) using data from various U.S. household surveys such as the PSID, CES, SIPP, SCF, and the HRS. The goal was to analyze the degree of integration among these surveys and assess how diaries of consumer payment choice can improve dynamic integration. Together with Jason Premo (PhD candidate at Northwestern), we built a data appendix that walks survey users through our methodology.
Directed Lending and Misallocation: Evidence from India (with Deeksha Kale)