Unpublished Working Papers
“A Model of Charles Ponzi” (with Inês Xavier)
“Bubbles and Inequality” (with Inês Xavier)
“Why Bubbles Occur: Revisiting the Rationality Debate" - prepared as a chapter for the Handbook of Bubbles and Manias
Publications
“Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles: Comment” (with Franklin Allen and Douglas Gale), American Economic Review, August 2025.
“The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts” (with Jason Faberman, Bart Hobijn, and Ayşegül Şahin) Journal of Economic Perspectives, 38(2), Spring 2024, p83-106. [NBER WP]
“Money Under the Mattress: Inflation and Lending of Last Resort” (with Daniel Bird, Daniel Fershtman, and David Weiss) Journal of Economic Theory, 127, April 2024,
“Asset Price Booms and Macroeconomic Policy: a Risk-Shifting Approach” (with Franklin Allen and Douglas Gale) American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14(2), April 2022, p243-80.
"Mandatory Disclosure and Financial Contagion” (with Fernando Alvarez) Journal of Economic Theory, 194(2), June 2021.
“Why Were Interest-only Mortgages so Popular During the U.S. Housing Boom?” (with Jonas Fisher) Review of Economic Dynamics, July 2021, 41, p205-224.
“Allocating Effort and Talent in Professional Labor Markets” (with Derek Neal) Journal of Labor Economics, January 2019, 37(1), p187-246. [JSTOR]
“A Leverage-Based Model of Speculative Bubbles” Journal of Economic Theory, September 2014, 153(1), p459-505.
“Pay for Percentile” (with Derek Neal), American Economic Review, August 2012, 102(5), p1805-31. [JSTOR]
“Robustness and Macroeconomic Policy” Annual Review of Economics, September, 2011, vol 3.
“Estimating Mobility Rates in Search Models with Initial Conditon Problems” (with H. N. Nagaraja), Review of Economic Dynamics, October 2010, 13(4), p780-99.
“Identification of Search Models using Record Statistics” Review of Economic Studies, January 2008, 75(1), p29-64. [JSTOR]
“On the Cyclicality of Research and Development” American Economic Review, September 2007, 97(4), p1131-1164. [JSTOR]
“Characterization in a Random Record Model with a Non-Identically Distributed Initial Record” (with H. N. Nagaraja) Journal of Applied Probability, December 2006, 43(4), p1119-36. [JSTOR]
“Earnings Inequality and Business Cycles” (with Dani Tsiddon) European Economic Review, January 2006, 50(1), p55-89.
“The Cost of Business Cycles under Endogenous Growth” American Economic Review, September 2004, 94(4), p964-90. [JSTOR]
“Credit Market Frictions and the Allocation of Resources over the Business Cycle” Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2003, 50(8), p1795-1818.
“Characterizations from Record Moment Sequences in a Geometric Random Record Model and Applications” (with H. N. Nagaraja) Journal of Applied Probability, September 2003, 40(3), p826-33. [JSTOR]
“Rational Panics and Stock Market Crashes’’ (with Pietro Veronesi) Journal of Economic Theory, June 2003, 110(2), p234-63.
“The Sullying Effect of Recessions” Review of Economic Studies, January 2002, 69(1), p65-96. [JSTOR]
“Why are the Wages of Job Changers so Procyclical?” Journal of Labor Economics, October 2001, 19(4), p837-78. [JSTOR]
“Information Acquisition and Financial Markets” (with Pietro Veronesi), Review of Economic Studies, January 2000, 67(1), p79-90.
Note: There is a fatal error in the analysis in this paper, and the example it purports is in fact not a proper counter-example to a conjecture posited in Grossman and Stiglitz (1980). The flaw was pointed out by Cristophe Chamley (REStud, 2008). As we show in a note entitled “Information Acquisition and Financial Markets: a Correction”, a proper (but different) counter-example can be constructed. Our correction is also included in the online supplementary material to Chamley's paper.
Fed Publications
“Unit Labor Costs and Inflation in the Non-Housing Service Sector” (with Luojia Hu) Chicago Fed Letter, 2023 (477), March
“Confessions of a Repentant Bubble Theorist” Economic Perspectives, 2, 2022, July.
“Are Long-run Inflation Expectations Well Anchored?” (with Jonas Fisher and May Tysinger) Chicago Fed Letter, 2021 (458), July.
“Interest-only Mortgages and Speculation in Hot Housing Markets” (with Jonas Fisher) Chicago Fed Letter, 2020, (439), June.
“Bridging Between Policymakers’ and Economists’ Views on Bubbles” Economic Perspectives, 42(4), 2018.
“Bubbles and Fools” Economic Perspectives, 39(2), 2015, p54-76.
“Evaluating the Role of Labor Market Mismatch in Rising Unemployment” Economic Perspectives, 35(3), 2011, p81-95.
“Policymaking under Uncertainty, Gradualism, and Robustness” Economic Perspectives, 33(2), 2009, p38-55.
“Economic Theory and Asset Bubbles” Economic Perspectives, 31(3), 2007, p44-59.
“The Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefits of Stabilization” Economic Perspectives, 29(1), 2005, p32-49.
“Why Don’t Recessions Encourage More R&D Spending” Chicago Fed Letter, 2005, 220, November.
Publications in Books and Conference Volumes
“Properties of the Vacancy Statistic in the Discrete Circle Covering Problem” (with H. N. Nagaraja) in Ordered Data Analysis, Models, and Health Research Methods: A Volume in Honor of Professor H. N. Nagaraja, Springer, 2015. [Chicago Fed WP]
“Rethinking Theoretical Models of Bubbles: Reflections Inspired by the Financial Crisis and Allen and Gorton’s Paper ‘Churning Bubbles’” in New Perspectives on Asset Bubbles: Theory, Evidence, and Policy, edited by A. G. Malliaris, G. Kauffman, and D. Evanoff, Oxford University Press, 2012.
“Growth and Cycles” entry in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, 2008.
“Growth Effects and the Cost of Business Cycles” in Economic Policy in the International Economy: Essays in Honor of Assaf Razin, edited by Elhanan Helpman and Efraim Sadka, Cambridge University Press, 2003.
“Comment on ‘Job Destruction and the Experiences of Displaced Workers’ by Wouter den Haan, Garey Ramey, and Joel Watson” Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy, June 2000, 52, p129-36.