Research.

Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in extreme weather events and several studies have considered the effects of temperature on human health, especially in countries with hotter climates. We extended this literature by modeling the relationship between temperature and morbidity in a country with a temperate maritime climate, and by considering the role of behavioral responses. Using weekly data on accident and emergency (A&E) attendances at 429 hospitals across England from 2010 to 2015, we found that while cold weather was associated with an initial reduction in A&E attendances, it appears to be a result of postponements to subsequent weeks. However, for hotter temperatures, we found substantial increases in overall attendances, which were not offset by subsequent reductions. Our results show clear effects of temperature on morbidity, even in relatively milder climates, with implications for future healthcare demand and the overall cost of climate change. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106106

Individuals allocate their time across activities to maximise their welfare subject to constraints. This includes labour market decisions, which may be impacted by weather conditions. We estimate the effect of temperature on labour supply in the UK using large-scale nationally-representative time use survey data. We find a reduction in labour supply of almost two hours on days with maximum temperatures of \(26^oC\) or higher for those employed in weather-exposed sectors. Most of this reduction is due to fewer hours worked, with a smaller share due to work absences. Our findings on the timing of labour supply adjustments, and the reallocation of time to indoor leisure activities, suggest that workers in weather-exposed sectors engage in avoidance behaviours. However, we do not find evidence that workers engage in compensatory behaviours in response to their reduced labour supply. Furthermore, we do not observe any adjustment in labour supply time in non-weather-exposed sectors. Finally, we also provide evidence that low-income workers may be constrained in their ability to adjust their labour supply in response to higher temperatures.

This systematic and large-scale reproduction effort tests the reproducibility and robustness of economics and political science. We reproduced original analyses and conducted robustness checks of 110 articles recently published in leading economics and political science journals (all of which have mandatory data and code sharing policies). We found that over 85% of published claims were computationally reproducible. In robustness checks, our re-analyses lead to 72% of statistically significant estimates to remain significant and in the same direction, and the median reproduced effect size is (nearly) the same as the originally published effect size (that is, 99% of the published effect size). Additionally, six independent research teams examined 12 prespecified hypotheses about determinants of robustness. Research teams with more experience found lower levels of robustness, but robustness correlated with neither author characteristics nor data availability.

I contributed by producing a replication report for the article - "Can Technology Solve the Principal-Agent Problem? Evidence from China’s War on Air Pollution" (AER: Insights, 2022). We were awarded a Bronze Medal for our replication report recognising the quality of our replication and how consequential the replication was for the reinterpretation of the final paper. (Award: https://i4replication.org/rankings.html) (Replication Report: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/289782) 

This project is investigating the relationship between increased exposure to extreme heat and labour conflict in the United States.