French Population and Economic Trends

A Little French Demography First!

On January 1st, 2024, the French population was 68.4 million people.

France's population is the 21st largest worldwide and the 2nd largest in the EU.

The most populated area is the Ile de France region - the region of Paris - with 12.4 million people (18% of the population).

Coastal areas have become more and more popular over the last few years. Following the pandemic and the democratization of remote work, these regions attract many people and see an increase in their population.

The central region (Centre Val de Loire) is the least populated one.

Where Do the Youngest and Oldest People Live?

The areas with the highest concentration of young people (under 25 y/o) are the northern regions, especially the Paris area and the North.

People over 60 are more numerous in France's southern and central parts.

What about gender and age distribution?

Here are two graphs showing how the French population is structured, by age group and sex:

Like in other developed countries, France's population is growing older and we can observe that there are more women than men as the population ages.

Life expectancy is rising to 85.7 y/o for women and 80 y/o for men, and seniors (65+ y/o) represent 21.5% of the population; baby boomers are getting older!

Some can view this demographic situation as a threat, but I'd rather see it as an opportunity for business.

Why? For three good reasons:

1. Seniors are, for the most part, retired. That means they have more free time than any other age group.

2. Due to improved life conditions, better health care, and medical advances, people live older and in better shape. They can now fully enjoy their retirement and engage in a wide range of activities such as traveling, sports, arts & crafts, cinema, and so many other leisure activities!

3. And last but not least, they have the highest purchasing power. Most of them are done paying their loans and mortgages, and their children became financially independent some years ago (again, for the most part, of course!).

For all these reasons, seniors are an interesting and promising target!

More time + more money = more opportunities for business

A Portray of French Workers

Socio-Professional Categories

One in four workers in France (25.1%) have intermediate professions, meaning they work as teachers (education sector), nurses (healthcare), social workers, technicians, and supervisors, or in public and private administrations. This is the most represented social-professional category.

22.4% belong to the executives and higher intellectual professions category.

26.6% are either skilled employees or workers, meaning they have qualifications or degrees. On the other hand, 17.1% are unskilled employees and workers.

6.7% of the French workforce are craftsmen, merchants, and company managers.

Finally, farmers represent 1.5% of the working population.

Socio-Professional Categories Distribution Among Men and Women

Now let's have a look at how socio-professional categories are distributed among men and women.

Women's most represented social-professional category is the intermediate professions (education, healthcare, social work, public and private administration, technicians, and supervisors). 27.7% of French women work in those sectors.

As for the men, one in four (25.1%) are executives or work in higher intellectual professions, and 22.7% have intermediate professions.

Less than one in four women (19.7%) work as executives or in higher intellectual professions.

But the striking difference is among employees and workers categories.

Women represent the overwhelming majority of the employee categories, whereas men are far more numerous among the worker class.

More than 3 out of 4 employees in France are women (38.8% VS 12.1%) and almost 4 out of 5 workers are men (28.7% VS 8.1%).

Men are twice as numerous working as craftsmen, merchants, and company managers, and the same goes for farmers.

Social-Professional Category per Age Group

We can see on this graph that most farmers are more than 50 years old. On a different scale, this is also the case for craftsmen, merchants, and company managers.

More than 1 out of 2 workers between 25 and 49 years old are either in the executives and higher intellectual professions category (24.6%) or the intermediate professions category (27%).

Most unskilled workers and unskilled employees are young people, between 15 and 24 years old.

How Much Do French People Earn According to Their Socio-professional Category? (Net pay per month)

1st decile represents the average of the 10% lowest salaries and the 9th decile represents the average of the 10% highest salaries.

There is a huge pay gap between the executives category and the rest.

Executive jobs come with high responsibilities and generally require outstanding management skills. This is why they get better paychecks at the end of the month.

Intermediate professions are the best next ones in terms of salary. People working in this category often have high levels of education and degrees, which explains their decent incomes.

Employees and workers have lower qualifications, hence they have more modest revenues.

What About Disparities Between Men and Women?

This graph shows us the difference in salary between men and women.

We can explain this disparity by analyzing the positions occupied by each gender.

We saw earlier that more men (1 out of 4) work as executives than women (1 out of 5). In addition, more women have intermediate professions.

The chart above clearly indicates that executive jobs have the highest salaries.

Another parameter that needs to be considered is that more women than men work part-time, often to care for their children.

Whether it is by choice or imposed on them - due to life conditions and many other factors - women work on average 10.1% less than men in a year.

Considering the same job, working full-time, women earn 4.3% less than men.

This slight difference is tricky to interpret and remains unexplained by the Insee (French National Institute for Statistical and Economic Studies).

It could either be the result of discrimination, a difference in experience, length of service in the company, or the ability to negotiate a salary...

Is Purchasing Power Really Decreasing?

High inflation rates in the last couple of years and the morosity induced by several economic, political, and sanitary crises, caused the French to be cautious about their money and even pessimistic regarding their financial situation.

Most are under the impression that their purchasing power is decreasing. Compared to the period preceding the inflationary shock, this is true. To be more precise, it is still growing but slower than before.

During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, the purchasing power of French households kept increasing by +1.8% between 2019 and 2021, but it went down to practically 0% in the following years (2021-2023).

The sanitary crisis has had a huge impact on energy and food prices, which induced an inflationary shock until last year (2023).

From September 2021 to December 2023, the inflation rate has been 12.3%.

And even if data demonstrate that purchasing power did not decrease but was rather stagnant, it is important to emphasize the disparities among social classes.

Heterogeneity Among Social Classes

The inflationary shock impacted more rural areas, modest-income households, middle classes, and retirees.

The 10% of the most modest households saw their purchasing power increase only 0.3% per year between 2021 and 2023.

Middle-classes (60% of households) are the most impacted ones. Their purchasing power decreased on average from -0.3% to -0.8%.

On the other hand, the wealthiest households (20%) have seen their purchasing power increase (between 0.4% and 1.2%), which is partly due to their asset revenues.

Let's Put Things Into Perspective

Disparities and inequalities are real and social classes are growing apart, one crisis at a time.

However, if we take a setback and look at how the situation evolved over the last decades, we owe to be optimistic!

Below we find a graph comparing the evolution of minimum wage (gross pay per hour) and prices since 1990.

And, good news, the trend is upward! In the last trimester of 2023, prices had been multiplied by 1.8 since 1990, while minimum wage had been multiplied by 2.5 over the same period.

That means the purchasing power of the French workforce is getting significantly better over the years.

Base: 100 in March 1990.

What About the Future Then?

The future looks bright! Despite recent high inflation rates and a slowed growth of purchasing power, 2023 ended on a positive note!

The last quarter saw an increase of 0.6% in the purchasing power of gross disposable income and the household saving ratio rose from 17.3% to 17.9% over the last semester.

2024 is supposed to be a shifting year. Due to a significant increase in social security benefits and incomes, purchasing power should rise to 1%.

Those signs offer optimistic prospects for the future.

Sources:

https://www.insee.fr/fr/outil-interactif/5367857/details/50_MTS/53_SRA/53A_Figure1

https://www.insee.fr/fr/outil-interactif/5367857/territoires/20_DEM/21_POP

https://www.insee.fr/fr/outil-interactif/5367857/tableau/50_MTS/53_SRA

https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2489546#tableau-figure1_radio1

https://inegalites.fr/femmes-hommes-salaires-inegalites

https://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/pbrief/2024/OFCEpbrief124.pdf