Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

1). Arthur, F. “Affective Polarization and Defensive Turnout of Black Voters: The 2020 Crucible.” Journal of Social and Political Sciences. 2025.  

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31014/aior.1991.08.03.596

Abstract:

Why do African Americans vote in huge numbers, even when enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is low? For decades, scholars pointed to racial solidarity and loyalty to the Democrats. But what if hostility, not loyalty, is a driving force? This paper introduces the defensive turnout theory, which is the idea that in racially charged elections, many Black voters cast ballots not out of enthusiasm for Democrats, but to block Republican threats. Using standard logistic regression models to analyze the 2020 American National Election Studies (ANES) data, the study finds that hostility toward the Republican Party is positively associated with Black turnout rates more than warmth toward the Democratic Party.

2). Arthur, F. “Reimagining College Access for Immigrant and Undocumented Students: A Critical Policy Analysis of Education Technology in the Biden and Trump Eras.” 2025.  American Journal of Education and Technology. 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.54536/ajet.v4i4.5835

Abstract:

This paper critically analyzes the impact of federal immigration and education policy changes on college access for immigrant and undocumented students in the United States by focusing on the differing policy environments of the Trump administration (2017–2021) and the Biden administration (2021–2025). Using comparative historical analysis and the dual frameworks of critical policy analysis, as well as Santos' ethics of care, the study examines the design, implementation, and transformative potential of Educational Technology (EdTech) tools during periods characterized by both restriction and affirmation. The paper critically analyzes executive orders, federal and state law, and landmark policies to assess how the risk-mitigation emphasis required by the hostile environments of the Trump administration contrasts with the inclusion-oriented opportunities that emerged during the Biden era. 

3.  Arthur, F.  “From Civics to College: An Equity-Focused Policy Analysis of Minority Access.” 2025. Education Quarterly Reviews. 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31014/aior.1993.08.03.603

Abstract:

A growing number of states are passing laws that require high school students to learn about their rights and obligations as citizens, which shows a fresh commitment to bolstering democracy in America. This civics mandate requires students to sit for an exam similar to the United States Citizenship Test administered by the US Customs and Immigration Service (USCIS) as a requirement for graduation from high school. However, little is known about how these policies affect the college access of students from racial and ethnic minorities. To investigate the relationship between civic education policies and educational opportunity, this research uses a systematic and equity-focused policy analysis based on Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology. The study comes to the conclusion that civic requirements, depending on their intention and execution, can either be tools for educational justice or roadblocks. 

4. Arthur, F. “Racialized Polarization and Latinx Perceptions of Representation: A Meta-Analysis using PRISMA.” Journal of Political Science and Public Opinion. 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33790/jpspo1100127

Abstract:

This review consolidates empirical research associated with Latinx perceptions of political representation in the United States by emphasizing the interaction between descriptive and substantive representation, racial polarization, and institutional patterns. By reviewing 92 peer-reviewed studies within the past 25 years using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses to improve validity and reduce bias, the study examines the impact of minority districting, partisanship, and intersectional identities on Latinx electoral engagement by utilizing both quantitative and qualitative research from political science and ethnic studies. The study finds a paradox where Latinx voters and candidates show high levels of political efficacy, yet are underrepresented in elected offices and face discouragement from party elites. 

5.  Arthur, F.  “Race-Conscious Admissions and College Access: A Systematic Review of Empirical Evidence in the Post-Affirmative Action Era.”  

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17321294

Abstract:

This systematic review compiles empirical evidence regarding race-conscious college admissions policies and their effects on college accessibility for historically underrepresented racial and ethnic minority students in the United States, especially following the U.S. Supreme Court's 2023 ruling in Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard and UNC, which effectively terminated the consideration of race as an explicit criterion in college admissions.  The objective of this study is to analyze the historical impact of race-conscious admissions on access to selective higher education, the effects of prohibitions on such practices on enrollment trends, and the alternative strategies that have developed in their absence. The results show that policies that take race into account greatly increased the number of Black, Latinx, and Native American students at selective colleges. On the other hand, race-neutral options like percentage plans, socioeconomic preferences, and targeted outreach had mixed results and often failed to achieve the same level of racial diversity. 

6. Arthur, F., and Serwaah, P. “Partisan Polarization and Public Perception of Electoral Legitimacy: Quantitative Evidence from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Elections.” International Journal of Political Science and Governance. 2025. 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33545/26646021.2025.v7.i9a.661

Abstract:

Democracy is predicated on the general consensus that election results are legitimate and widely accepted by citizens. However, the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election witnessed a historic and unprecedented challenge to this legitimacy, with millions of Americans continuing to dispute the outcome despite clear institutional validation. This research note investigates the factors that most strongly predict the belief that Donald Trump won the presidency legitimately using multivariate modeling and original survey data from the nationally representative American National Election Studies Survey’s (ANES) 2024 data. Even after controlling for political interests, political knowledge, and a variety of demographic factors, the findings show that partisan identity and candidate preference by far remain the most powerful predictors of belief in Trump’s victory. With significant implications for the well-being of electoral democracy, these findings offer quantitative support for the idea that partisan identity and elite cues play significantly influences how people perceive democratic legitimacy.

Papers In Progress

1. “The More You Know, the More You Trust?: Civic Knowledge and Media Distrust in a Polarized Age” (With Izzy Doyle)

2. Arthur, F. “Race, Identity, and the Politics of Election Fraud: A Longitudinal Study on Who Believes, and Why?”

3. Arthur, F. “Black Conservative, But Not Black Republican: Investigating Identity Conflicts in the Biden and Trump Eras”