RESEARCH

We study how population ageing interacts with voters’ representation, engagement with politics, and the content of political agendas. Leveraging the European Social Survey, we observe that over the past two decades, individuals under the age of 50 have become a minority within the voter population. This shift has been exacerbated by a decline in the turnout propensity of those under 50, juxtaposed with an increase among older age groups. The evolution of turnout propensity has unfolded gradually across cohorts: each successive cohort entering the eligible voter population has exhibited lower turnout rates compared to its predecessors and has failed to converge to previous levels throughout its lifecycle. Moreover, these dynamics have coincided with a shift in the political agenda. Through an analysis of political manifestos, we demonstrate a switch towards topics appealing to older voters, notably retirement policies. 

This paper examines how political rhetoric shapes law enforcement behavior. We analyze monthly arrest data from 1,420 police agencies across 38 U.S. states between January 1981 and December 1992, a period when U.S. presidents intensified anti-drug messaging, particularly targeting crack cocaine, which the media disproportionately linked to Black communities. We construct a novel measure of national rhetoric intensity and show that it received greater coverage in local newspapers in counties where Republicans and Democrats had comparable support, using this differential media exposure as a proxy for local susceptibility to the rhetoric. Our findings reveal that greater exposure to this rhetoric led to a significant rise in drug possession arrests among Black individuals, with no corresponding increase for White individuals, thereby widening racial disparities in arrests.

Several studies document that exposure to actual immigration affects political outcomes. This paper examines, instead, the influence of expected immigration, using data from local elections in Italy. We develop an index of potential exposure to pre-electoral sea arrivals that varies over time and space depending on immigrants’ nationality. We find that such potential exposure causes a decrease in turnout and increases protest votes, shifting valid votes towards extreme-right parties. Support for populist and anti-immigration parties increased in highly exposed municipalities, where voters believed the new inflow of refugees would increase the local stock of immigrants. However, Twitter data show that these expectations do not reflect actual immigration trends; immigration salience rises mainly during the election period, while most arrivals occur months later. This suggests that, around elections, informal media can bias people’s expectations and, consequently, influence voting behavior.