Let’s project Wave-5 step by step :

DISCLAIMER ::

This analysis is for my reference only . Its not BUY/SELL suggestion for any traders . We don't have any WhatsApp/telegram group . 

We are not SEBI registered advisors . This is purely educational purpose only 

Given data (1H)

Wave-1: 26240 → 25460

👉 Length = 780 points

Wave-2: 25870

Wave-3: 24920

Wave-4: 25434

We project Wave-5 from Wave-4 (25434).

Wave-5 Fibonacci Targets

🔹 Weak / normal 5th wave

0.382 × Wave-1

780 × 0.382 ≈ 298 pts

25434 − 298 ≈ 25136

➡️ Target 1: ~25140

🔹 Most common 5th wave

0.618 × Wave-1

780 × 0.618 ≈ 482 pts

25434 − 482 ≈ 24952

➡️ Target 2: ~24950

⚠️ This is very important because:

Wave-3 low = 24920

This gives a marginal LL / equal-low zone

🔹 Extended / panic 5th wave

1.0 × Wave-1

25434 − 780 ≈ 24654

➡️ Target 3: ~24650

Only likely if:

News / global selloff

Heavy short covering later

👉 Wave-3 is already extended (much larger than Wave-1)

That usually means:

Wave-5 will be normal or truncated

NOT a massive extension

So high-probability zone:

24950 – 25140

B)RSI + Elliott Confirmation (1H, Index)

Key RSI readings

Wave-3 RSI: 16.81 (extreme oversold, panic leg)

Current RSI: 37.14

Price: 25064

➡️ Strong bullish divergence already formed

Price made lower low

RSI made a much higher low

This is classic 5th-wave exhaustion behaviour.

Where exactly is Wave-5?

What VIX 14.195 is telling us

📉 Volatility State

• Low–moderate volatility

• No panic, no fear spike

• Market is controlled selling, not capitulation
  
  

👉 This is NOT the VIX you see at major bottoms (those are usually 18–25+).

VIX  :: 14.19  ::: Calm / complacent

Key takeaway:

Wave-5 can end without VIX spike, but
major reversals usually need higher VIX

Does low VIX allow Wave-5 extension? 

Yes .

With VIX at 14:

• Market can slowly grind lower

• No forced liquidation

• Extensions happen via time, not big red candles

So if Wave-5 extends:

• It will be controlled, not violent
  
  

• Targets remain:

  • 24650

  • 24400 (only if sentiment worsens)

How VIX affects your BUY zones

✅ Still valid (best zone)

• 25180–25220
  (confirmation + pullback)

⚠️ Be careful with

• Blind buying near 25000

• Expect choppy ABC, not trending candles
  
  

❌ What VIX says NOT to do

• Don’t expect 300–400 pts in one session

• Don’t buy far OTM options (IV is low → poor expansion)

From earlier math:

High-probability Wave-5 zone: 24950 – 25140

Wave-3 low: 24920

Current close: 25064

👉 Price is already inside the Wave-5 completion zone

Simple line to remember 🧠

“Low VIX = no panic bottom, only tactical bounces.”

This strongly suggests:

Wave-5 is either DONE or in its last few candles

Is it a truncated 5th wave?

Very likely, yes.

Reasons:

Wave-3 was extended

RSI divergence is clean

No fresh momentum below 24920

Current price reclaimed above 0.382 retracement of Wave-5

If Wave-5 was strong, RSI would stay below 30 — it didn’t.

What comes next (high probability path)

Expect ABC corrective bounce

Typical 1H bounce targets:

🔹 Conservative

25180 (minor supply / intraday VWAP zone)

🔹 Normal

25320 – 25450 (Wave-4 overlap + 20 EMA)

🔹 Stretch

25580 – 25650

(0.382 retracement of full impulse)

⚠️ This is not a trend reversal yet, just a corrective rally.

How NOT to get trapped now ❌

Avoid fresh shorts near 25000

Avoid buying far OTM calls (IV crush risk)

Don’t expect straight up move — ABC will be choppy

What to watch on 1H / lower TF

Bullish exhaustion signs near that zone:

RSI bullish divergence

Long lower wicks

Volume drops vs Wave-3

Failure to accelerate below 24920

If price fails to break 24920 decisively →

🔥 Truncated 5th wave → sharp bounce likely

Trading takeaway (important)

❌ Avoid fresh shorts below 25000

✅ Book shorts near 24950

✅ Look for ABC bounce towards:

25180

25350

VWAP / 20 EMA

This structure actually screams “end of impulse soon”, not trend continuation.

If trading intraday / expiry style:

Look for pullback buy above 25020–25040

Target +80 to +150 pts

Book fast, don’t marry the trade

If price breaks and holds below 24920 with RSI < 30:

Then Wave-5 extension → 24650 opens

Until then → downside is limited

Safest buy zones (only after confirmation)

What if Wave-5 extends further

Macro risk filter (FII outflows + Trump tariff headline risk)

1️⃣ Safest BUY zone (only on confirmed reversal)

⚠️ Important mindset

Given:

Strong foreign outflows

Global risk from tariff headlines

Primary trend = DOWN

👉 The safest buy is NOT the bottom

👉 The safest buy is after the market proves it

✅ SAFEST BUY ZONE — Tiered Approach

🟢 Zone-1: Confirmation Buy (Highest probability)

Conditions (ALL required):

If holds above 25320–25400

1H close above 20 EMA

RSI sustains above 40

Pullback holds above 25100

📌 Buy Zone:

25180 – 25220 (on pullback)

📌 Stop Loss:

Below 24920

📌 Target:

25550 – 25650

👉 This is buying Wave-B dip, not guessing Wave-5 low.

🟡 Zone-2: Aggressive reversal buy (Higher risk)

Only if:

Strong bullish candle from 24950–25000

RSI breaks 40 → 45

No follow-through selling next candle

📌 Buy Zone:

24980 – 25040

📌 Stop:

Below 24880

⚠️ Use small quantity only

2️⃣ What if Wave-5 EXTENDS further?

This is very important given macros 👇

Extension trigger:

1H close below 24920

RSI slips back below 30

Volume expands

Then Wave-5 targets shift to:

Extension Type Target

Normal extension 24650

Panic flush 24400–24350

👉 In this case:

NO BUYING

Wait for fresh divergence again

ABC resets from lower low

3️⃣ Macro overlay (this matters now)

Foreign outflows + tariff risk =

❌ No V-shaped recovery

❌ No trend reversal yet

What this implies:

Rallies = sell into resistance

Corrections = fast + violent

Breakouts fail easily

So:

Even if ABC completes, expect rejection near 25600

🧠 In macro-weak markets:

“Safe buy” = market proves it

Not where price looks cheap

What VIX 14.195 is telling us

📉 Volatility State

• Low–moderate volatility

• No panic, no fear spike

• Market is controlled selling, not capitulation
  
  

👉 This is NOT the VIX you see at major bottoms (those are usually 18–25+).

Core Rule in Low VIX (very important)

When VIX is low:

• ❌ Far OTM options = trap (no IV expansion)

• ❌ Expecting multi-day gamma moves = unrealistic

• ✅ ATM / slightly ITM works best

• ✅ Spreads > naked buying

reference

• Spot: ~25064

• Expected ABC range: 250–400 pts

• Upside cap: 25550–25650

✅ SAFEST OPTION STRATEGIES (Ranked) 

🥇 1) Bull Call Spread (BEST choice)

Why:

• Low VIX → cheap premiums

• Defined risk

• Works even in slow grind up
  
  

Structure

• BUY 25100 CE

• SELL 25500 CE
  
  

📌 Max gain zone: 25350 – 25500
📌 Risk limited
📌 Time decay controlled

👉 Ideal for Wave-B → Wave-C move

🥈 2) ATM Call Buy (Intraday / Fast booking)

Only if:

• Price holds above 25180

• RSI > 40
  
  

Strike

• 25000 CE or 25100 CE

📌 Target: +30–50%
📌 Exit same day or next session

⚠️ Do NOT hold hoping for IV expansion

🥉 3) Call Ratio (Advanced, low risk)

Only if you expect capped upside

Structure

• BUY 25100 CE

• SELL 2× 25600 CE
  
  

📌 Profitable if NIFTY stalls near 25500–25600
📌 Risk only if strong breakout above 25700

Risk control (important)

• Allocate ≤25% capital to long options

• Book profits early (low VIX won’t forgive greed)

• If 1H closes below 24920 → EXIT ALL CALLS

Simple trader mantra 🧠

Low VIX = sell hope, buy structure.

❌ WHAT NOT TO DO TODAY  ::

Buy at open near 25200

Gap = Wave-A, poor R:R

Chase green candles

Low VIX = no follow-through

Buy far OTM calls

IV won’t expand

Short aggressively

Gap-up = short-covering risk

🔄 What the GAP UP means for our plan 

• Wave-5 exhaustion likely

• ABC corrective bounce expected

• VIX low (14.19) → slow, capped move
  
  

Today’s open implication

👉 Wave-A has likely already played out in the gap
So today is NOT a fresh buy-on-open day.

📍 Updated Elliott Positioning (Very Important) 

Wave-A

Likely DONE in gap (24950 → ~25200)

Wave-B

Likely TODAY (intraday pullback)

Wave-C

Possible later today / next session

So focus shifts to: Buying Wave-B dip, not chasing Wave-A gap 

✅ UPDATED TRADE PLAN FOR TODAY 

🟢 SAFEST BUY ZONE (only if it comes) 

🔹 Wave-B Dip Buy

Buy only if price pulls back and HOLDS:

25120 – 25180

Confirmation checklist:

• 15-min / 30-min higher low

• RSI stays above 35–40

• No strong selling volume

🎯 Targets:  25350 → 25500 

🛑 SL (strict): Below 24920 (1H close)

📉 What if market does NOT pull back? 

If Index :

• Holds above 25180

• Consolidates sideways

• Breaks 25280 with volume
  
  

Then:
👉 Wave-C may start directly

In that case:

• Only small quantity ATM / ITM

• Targets still capped at 25500–25600

• Book fast

⚠️ Bearish invalidation (very important)

If after gap-up:

• Price fails and closes below 25050

• RSI drops < 30

• Selling expands
  
  

Then:
❌ ABC fails
❌ Wave-5 extension back on table
🎯 Downside opens to 24650

🎯 OPTION STRATEGY – UPDATED FOR GAP UP

🥇 Best choice TODAY

Bull Call Spread (still king 👑)

• BUY 25100 CE

• SELL 25500 CE
  
  

Why it still works:

• Gap already happened

• Upside capped

• Low VIX friendly

🥈 Intraday only (if dip confirms)

• 25100 CE or 25000 CE

• Book 20–40%, don’t hold ego

🧠 One-line mindset for today

“Gap-up days are for patience, not prediction.”

Wait for Wave-B, then act.