Intent-Based Trajectory Prediction (IBTP)
- In trajectory prediction, uncertainty about the future behavior of an aircraft can be reduced by using intent information which determines the goal a pilot is pursuing.
Architecture for intent-based trajectory prediction
Architecture for intent-based trajectory prediction
TCP: Trajectory Change Point
SUA: Special Use Airspace
NAVAID: Navigational Aid
ADS-B: Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast
FIS-B: Flight Information Services-Broadcast
- Intent Inference: maximum likelihood problem
- Trajectory Prediction
- State and Mode Estimates: current motion of the aircraft (short-term)
- Inferred Intent: goal the aircraft is pursuing (long-term)
- IBTP combines two sets of information
Illustrative Example
Illustrative Example
Horizontal Aircraft Avoidance Scenario
- Intent Inference
Inferred Intents: reduced inference delay due to the use of estimated flight modes
- Trajectory Prediction
- Using the estimated states only (RMIMM): Good for short look-ahead times, but degraded afterwards
- Using the intent information only (IIA): Poor for short look-ahead times, but improved afterwards
- Using both sets of information (proposed IBTP): Outperforms for all times
Trajectory Prediction Error
Related Publication
Related Publication
- J.L. Yepes, I. Hwang, and M. Rotea, “New Algorithms for Aircraft Intent Inference and Trajectory Prediction,” AIAA Journal of Guidance, Control and Dynamics, Vol. 30 (2): 370-382, March-April 2007