Intent-Based Trajectory Prediction (IBTP) 

• In trajectory prediction, uncertainty about the future behavior of an aircraft can be reduced by using intent information which determines the goal a pilot is pursuing.

Architecture for intent-based trajectory prediction

• Intent Inference: maximum likelihood problem

• Trajectory Prediction

  • State and Mode Estimates: current motion of the aircraft (short-term)

  • Inferred Intent: goal the aircraft is pursuing (long-term)

  • IBTP combines two sets of information

Illustrative Example

• Intent Inference

• Trajectory Prediction

  • Using the estimated states only (RMIMM): Good for short look-ahead times, but degraded afterwards

  • Using the intent information only (IIA): Poor for short look-ahead times, but improved afterwards

  • Using both sets of information (proposed IBTP): Outperforms for all times

Related Publication

• J.L. Yepes, I. Hwang, and M. Rotea, “New Algorithms for Aircraft Intent Inference and Trajectory Prediction,” AIAA Journal of Guidance, Control and Dynamics, Vol. 30 (2): 370-382, March-April 2007