Intent-Based Probabilistic Conflict Detection
Probabilistic trajectory prediction algorithm: hybrid estimation + intent inference
Probabilistic conflict detection: approximate analytical solution to compute conflict probability
Illustrative Example
t=220 sec: aircraft A turns to avoid weather
t=505 sec: minimum separation is around 2 nautical miles
Inferred intent, predicted minimum separation, and probability of conflict
Predicted Trajectory
=> It’s important to incorporate intent information into conflict detection to correctly predict potential conflicts early in time
Related Publication
Related Publication
I. Hwang and C.-E. Seah, “Intent Based Probabilistic Conflict Detection for the Next Generation Air Transportation System,” Proceedings of the IEEE Special Issue on Aviation Information Systems, Vol. 96 (12), December 2008