Intent-Based Probabilistic Conflict Detection 

• Probabilistic trajectory prediction algorithm: hybrid estimation + intent inference

• Probabilistic conflict detection: approximate analytical solution to compute conflict probability

• Illustrative Example

  • t=220 sec: aircraft A turns to avoid weather

  • t=505 sec: minimum separation is around 2 nautical miles

• • Inferred intent, predicted minimum separation, and probability of conflict

• • Predicted Trajectory

=> It’s important to incorporate intent information into conflict detection to correctly predict potential conflicts early in time

Related Publication

• I. Hwang and C.-E. Seah, “Intent Based Probabilistic Conflict Detection for the Next Generation Air Transportation System,” Proceedings of the IEEE Special Issue on Aviation Information Systems, Vol. 96 (12), December 2008