Research

This paper evaluates the implications of forming a currency union for South American countries. Two results stand out. First, by using convergence methodology, I estimated that countries belonging to the CAN regional trade agreement: Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia, are suitable to form a currency union. Second, by using an estimated NK model with incomplete pass-through on imported prices, a welfare analysis is conducted for south american countries with and without a currency union. The results suggest that having a higher degree of incomplete pass-through represents higher welfare losses in a currency union. Thus, as the degree of incomplete pass-through decreases, into a flexible one, the losses also decrease until a point where South American countries in a currency union are better suited than being as independent. I believe this should be the scenario that, in case of forming a currency union, South American countries should strive for. 

This study aims to estimate the landlocked effect in Bolivia through the empirical construction of a fictitious country called Antofagasta, which emulates the Bolivian economy with the Antofagasta region and consequently with sovereign access to the sea. The results of the landlocked effect indicate that, on average, the Antofagasta region could have contributed an annual value of 5.566 billion bolivianos to the Bolivian economy in 1990 (22.027 billion bolivianos today), and an average additional growth rate of 0.24 percentage points. If we take into account the accumulated amount since 1884, when Bolivia lost the Antofagasta region, this amount rises to a total value of 745.84 billion bolivianos in 1990 (2.9 trillion bolivianos today); In other words, this amount constitutes the total effect of landlocked Bolivia until 2017.

A shock in the international oil price has an impact on Bolivia's GDP, particularly during the first year. However, this effect is relatively modest: a 15% increase results in an additional 0.4% growth in the first year. The effect subsequently diminishes to zero, consistent with the idea that the oil price has no long-term impact on Bolivia's GDP. To put this result into context, during the upward phase described above, the oil price increased by 150%, meaning that this phase of the price cycle had a maximum effect of 4% on GDP.

The COVID-19 pandemic has raised many questions not only in the health sector but also in other areas such as economics. Based on this precept, a DSGE model was developed that considers the COVID-19 shock with the premise of understanding in quantitative terms the type of economic recovery the country could experience. The model's results suggest that Bolivia's economic growth for 2020 ranges from -5.4%, -5.9%, and -6.1%, corresponding to three different types of scenarios. These scenarios illustrate the behaviour of the country's economic recovery and show the shapes of the letters U, V, and W, respectively.

This research paper aims to emulate what would have happened if an economic union were considered for the selected countries of Central America (Centrozone), in the same year in which the Eurozone was conceived in 2001. Once the economy of the member countries of the Central Zone was built, within which we can mention the adoption of a single currency for them called "El Caribeño", among others, a model was estimated that simulates what would have happened economically from 2001 to 2017 if this measure had been taken. The results suggest that the member countries of the Centrozone would have registered on average an additional economic growth of 0.54% and 0.69% in the case of Guatemala specifically, equivalent to an additional annual average in GDP of $us 1,360 million for the Centrozone and $us 2,749 million for Guatemala, and a total accumulated in GDP of $us 8,162 million and 16,494 million for the Centrozone and Guatemala respectively, during the period 2001-2017.

This research paper aims to estimate a prediction model for the stocks of major companies, currencies, and metals listed on international stock exchanges. This is intended to provide a potential new investment option for the Bolivian Stock Exchange (BBV) by formulating an investment portfolio comprised of rising stocks on international stock exchanges, allowing the Bolivian Stock Exchange to generate higher returns.

The results show that the machine learning prediction model used in the study has very good predictive capacity. Therefore, if the BBV, given the current situation, takes advantage of the situation and uses these models, this could help it invest in foreign stock exchanges and subsequently expand. Experience has shown that many companies that have invested in the stock market right at the end of a global shock, such as the pandemic, have generated exponential returns by investing in opportune stocks. 

Quantitatively speaking, the average percentage error in the prediction of the machine learning model compared to real data for stock prices is 0.5%. In other words, the machine learning model has a 99.5% confidence level in its predictive ability, a confidence level widely accepted by international standards.

The study quantitatively assesses the socioeconomic status of the half a million cholitas identified across the country. Similarly, results highlight significant social and economic events; all the economic progress made over the past 20 years was overshadowed by the impact of the pandemic in just one year after its appearance in Bolivia.

Additionally, a spatial relationship exists among the cholitas living in different regions of the country, mainly explained by migration to urban cities, primarily in search of better economic opportunities.

This study estimates the contribution of La Paz culture to the economy of this city, through the construction of an indicator called culture, which is composed of a series of variables such as consumption of theatre, dance, music, cinema, books, among others, which were extracted from the 2017 Household Survey. The results suggest that the culture indicator registered a total value of 4,862 thousand bolivianos for the 2017 fiscal year, equivalent to a contribution of 30% with respect to total consumption of La Paz and 21% with respect to GDP of the city. Moreover, according to the econometric and artificial intelligence analysis, the most significant components of the culture variable are: consumption of books (48%), cinema (19%), and informal videos (12%), respectively.

This article presents a correlation analysis for the period of time (1962-2012) between life expectancy (defined as the average number of years a person is expected to live in a given social context) and the fertility rate (average number of children per woman), which is presented in a general way in the study by Cutler, Deaton and Muney (2005), and in turn analyze whether this relationship remains between different countries in the world, which have different economic and social characteristics. The results of the article confirm that this relationship is maintained both over time and between different countries in the world, as is the case of Bolivia, which shows notable progress over time.