Work-in-progress:
Joint with Jayash Paudel: "Labour Market Impact of an Earthquake: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Nepal" (under review)
Abstract:
We study how large seismic shocks affect international migration and domestic labour dynamics in a remittance-dependent economy. We combine two rich data sources: 1) administrative data on government-issued daily labour permits to work in a foreign country, and 2) spatiotemporal variation in seismic intensity of Nepal’s 2015 “Gorkha” earthquake. Using an event-study approach, we find that the earthquake induced an immediate 8% decline in male emigration lasting for about 5 years, while female emigration remains largely unchanged. Across top five migration corridors, we document immediate declines of about 13-14% to Malaysia, Kuwait and Qatar, with slightly delayed effects on labour migration to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Results further indicate a decline in women’s agricultural employment and a rise in men’s non-agricultural work, suggesting a “crowding out” of women from the labour force as men shift into higher-paying sectors in the aftermath of the earthquake. These findings underscore how disruptions to migration flows from natural disasters can affect labour supply in destination countries, while women in sending countries are often disproportionately affected in sectors where they are more vulnerable.
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