Articles/Chapters:
2024
"Unpacking Political Parties in Autocracies: What Party Structures Reveal About Party Strategies and Patterns of Regime Survival." Democratization, 2024, Vol. 32, No. 1 (with Masaaki Higashijima)
"Personalist Dictatorship," Oxford Handbook of Authoritarian Politics, Oxford University Press (edited by Anne Wolf), 2024
"Autocratization and Democratic Backsliding," Research Handbook on Authoritarianism, Edward Elgar Publishing (edited by Natasha Lindstaedt and Jeoren J.J. den Bosch), 2024 (with Alejandra López Villegas)
"Authoritarian Survival," Research Handbook on Authoritarianism, Edward Elgar Publishing (edited by Natasha Lindstaedt and Jeoren J.J. den Bosch), 2024
2023
"The Treacherous Path to a Better Russia," Foreign Affairs, 2023, July/August (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)
"Democracy under Threat: How the Personalization of Political Parties Undermines Democracy," Transatlantic Security Program Report, Center for A New American Security, 2023 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Joseph Wright, Jia Li, Carisa Nietsche, Nicholas Lokker, and Nikolai Rice)
"Why Do Some States Employ Digital Repression and Not Others?" in Digital Repression, Causes, Consequences & Policy Response, Global Policy Journal (edited by Chris Hogden and Olivia Hagan), 2023 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)
2022
"Personalist Ruling Parties in Democracies." Democratization, 2022, Vol. 29, No. 5 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jia Li, and Joseph Wright)
"After Putin: Lessons from Autocratic Leadership Transitions," The Washington Quarterly, 2022, Vol. 45, No. 1 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)
2021
"How Personalist Politics is Changing Democracies." Journal of Democracy, 2021, Vol. 32, No. 3 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Carisa Nietsche, Joseph Wright)
"Digitized Autocracy Literature Review: Final Report," DRG Center Working Paper, USAID, 2021 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)
"Contemporary Challenges to Global Democracy," Brown Journal of World Affairs, 2021, Vol. 26, No. 2
"Autocracy," Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics, April 2016 (updated in 2021)
"Personalism in Democracies: A New Index," Luminate Foundation Working Paper, 2021, May (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Joseph Wright)
2020
"Personalization of Power and Repression in Dictatorships." Journal of Politics, 2020, Vol. 82, No. 1 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Joseph Wright, and Xu Xu)
"Elections and Capital Flight: A Response to Goldsmith." International Studies Quarterly, 2020, Vol. 64, No. 1
"The Digital Dictators: How Technology Strengthens Autocracy," Foreign Affairs, 2020, March/April (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Joseph Wright)
* Featured on Foreign Affairs' "The Best of 2020"
"Digital Repression in Autocracies," V-Dem Users Working Paper, The Varieties of Democracy Institute, 2020, No. 27, (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Joseph Wright)
2019
"The Legacy of Military Dictatorship: Explaining Violent Crime in Democracies." International Political Science Review, 2019, Vol. 40, No. 3
2018
"Voter Turnout and Opposition Performance in Competitive Authoritarian Elections." Electoral Studies, 2018, Vol. 54
"Elections and Capital Flight: Evidence from Africa." International Studies Quarterly, 2018, Vol. 62, No. 1
"Authoritarian Politics: Trends and Debates," Politics and Governance, 2018, Vol. 6, No. 2
2017
"Countering Coups: Leadership Succession Rules in Dictatorships." Comparative Political Studies, 2017, Vol. 50, No. 7 (with Elizabeth A. Stein)
"Pathways to Democratization in Personalist Dictatorships." Democratization, 2017, Vol. 24, No. 1 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)
"How Oil Income and Missing Hydrocarbon Rents Data Influence Autocratic Survival: A Response to Lucas and Richter (2016)." Research and Politics, 2017, Vol. 4, No. 3 (with Joseph Wright)
"Are Coups Good for Democracy? A Response to Miller (2016)." Research and Politics, 2017, Vol. 4, No. 2 (with George Derpanopoulos, Barbara Geddes, and Joseph Wright)
"The Global Rise of Personalized Politics: It's Not Just Dictators Anymore," The Washington Quarterly, 2017, Vol. 40, No. 1 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Joseph Wright)
"The Evolution of Autocracy: Why Authoritarianism Is Becoming More Formidable," Survival, 2017, Vol. 59, No. 5 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)
* Featured on Survival's "Editors' picks: Ten of the best Survival articles from 2017"
"Theories of Democratic Change Phase II: Paths Away from Authoritarianism," USAID Research and Innovation Grants Working Paper Series, DRG Center Working Paper, 2017 (with Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz)
2016
"When Dictators Die." Journal of Democracy, 2016, Vol. 27, No. 4 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)
"Are Coups Good for Democracy?" Research and Politics, 2016, Vol. 3, No. 1 (with George Derpanopoulos, Barbara Geddes, and Joseph Wright), Appendix here
"The Legacy of Dictatorship for Democratic Parties in Latin America." Journal of Politics in Latin America, 2016, Vol. 8, No. 1 (with Barbara Geddes)
2015
"Oil and Autocratic Regime Survival.'' British Journal of Political Science, 2015, Vol. 45 No. 2 (with Joseph Wright and Barbara Geddes)
2014
"A Dictator's Toolkit: Understanding How Cooptation Affects Repression in Autocracies." Journal of Peace Research, 2014, Vol. 51 No. 3 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)
"Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set." Perspectives on Politics, 2014, Vol. 12 No. 2 (with Barbara Geddes and Joseph Wright)
* Top ten most cited articles in Perspectives on Politics since 2003
"Military Rule." Annual Review of Political Science, 2014, Vol. 17 No. 1 (with Barbara Geddes and Joseph Wright)
"Mimicking Democracy to Prolong Autocracies," The Washington Quarterly, 2014, Vol. 37, No. 4 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)
"How Autocracies Fall," The Washington Quarterly, 2014, Vol. 37, No. 1 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)
"Autocratic Fate: How Leaders' Post-Tenure Expectations Influence the Behavior of Dictatorships," Whitehead Journal of International Diplomacy, 2014, Vol. 15, No. 1 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Natasha Ezrow)
"Trends in Democratization: Leadership Transitions and Systemic Change," Peace and Conflict 2014, University of Maryland, CIDCM (edited by David Backer, Paul Huth, and Jonathan Wilkenfeld), 2014
2013
"Revisiting the Concept of the Failed State: Bringing the State Back In." Third World Quarterly, 2013, Vol. 34 No. 8 (with Natasha Ezrow)
2012
"Comparative Leadership in Non-Democracies," Comparative Political Leadership, Palgrave MacMillan Publishers (edited by Ludger Helms), 2012 (with Elizabeth A. Stein)
"Trends in Democratization: Unpacking Anocracies," Peace and Conflict 2012, University of Maryland, CIDCM (edited by. J. Joseph Hewitt, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Ted Robert Gurr, and Birger Held), 2012
2011
"State Institutions and the Survival of Dictatorships," Journal of International Affairs, 2011, Vol. 46, No. 1 (with Natasha Ezrow)