Art-1

UDC 550.34.013, 550.34.01

STAGES OF THE GENESIS OF EARTHQUAKES

A.Yagodin, geophysicist

(Haifa Earthquake Prevention Laboratory), Haifa, Israel

predict.y@gmail.com

Абстракт. Для того, чтоб точно прогнозировать землетрясения необходимо понять механизм, предвестник, который предшествует землетрясению в конкретном месте в конкретное время и выделить надежные предвестники. Многие из предвестников уже известны, но никто не пытался четко разложить их по этапам и связать с физикой процесса.

Автор нашел закономерность в развитии землетрясений, их связь с известными предвестниками и нашел новые предвестники, которые связаны с последующим землетрясением физической связью.

Использование открытия дало надежный метод Краткосрочного и оперативного прогноза землетрясений.

Abstract. In order to accurately predict earthquakes, it is necessary to understand the mechanism, the precursor that precedes an earthquake in a particular place at a particular time, and to identify reliable precursors. Many of the precursors are already known, but no one has tried to clearly decompose them into stages and connect them with the physics of the process.

The author found a regularity in the development of earthquakes, their connection with known precursors, and found new precursors that are associated with a subsequent earthquake by a physical connection.

The use of the discovery gave a reliable method for short-term and operational earthquake prediction.

In order to accurately predict earthquakes, it is necessary to understand the mechanism that precedes an earthquake and isolate reliable precursors at a particular place at a particular time. Many of the precursors are already known, but no one has tried to clearly decompose them into stages and connect them with the physics of the process.

The author investigated the Kozyrev-Yagodin wave (KaY-wave), immediately preceding the earthquake, with sensors in a wide frequency band. High frequencies played the role of filling frequencies for the anomaly peaks on the sensor, which registers the peaks of the gravitational-seismic wave at the front of the anomaly associated with the subsequent earthquake. [1,2]

Against the background of the exponentially decreasing amplitude of the peaks, additional minima and maxima appeared, which turned out to be appropriate for each feature of the epicenter of the future earthquake. When comparing them with geomorphology, it turned out that the amplitude losses corresponded to the zone of the sea, the strait, and the maxima corresponded to the solid surface.

And most importantly: this pattern was not associated with the location of the sensor, but with the morphology at the site of the epicenter of the future earthquake, like geolocation of the area by a surface wave.

In 2006, this discovery was presented to the Chairman of the Russian Expert Council (REC) on earthquake and seismic hazard forecasting in the short-term project of earthquake forecasting. The expert's conclusion is positive, he recommended to continue research in this direction. [ 3].

The discovery said that the process of the genesis of an earthquake begins and ends in the same place. This confirmed the assumption that the duration of the development of the process (it is from hours to two or three weeks) is directly correlated with the magnitude of the future earthquake.

From magnitude 1, a "dump truck-like" shock after a resonance lasting less than an hour, to magnitude 9 in the case of Japan, when a resonance was recorded on the opposite side of the planet in the Suez Canal on February 20-22. By this resonance, on February 23, 2011, the author gave an inference to the Chairman of the Commission in Israel, inviting him to a report on February 24 at the Technion Museum. This was an assumption about a possible future strong earthquake in the Pacific coast zone in the coming weeks.

Cases of long-term registration of surface waves in Greece (up to 2 days) and subsequent earthquakes with a magnitude of about 5 have been noted. [ 3].

The author was able to identify the stages of the earthquake developmentAs a result of studies of signals in zones not far (50 - 500 km) from the place of the epicenter of the future earthquake and very far (1000 - 16000 km) by registration of output of resonant on the opposite side of the planet.

The physical manifestations of these stages were singled out and the earthquake harbinger directly involved in the final stages, determining the place, time, and strength of the predicted earthquake, was specifically identified. [ 3]. The author identified the preliminary stages in the course of the main work of searching for the main harbinger. The stages are distinguished according to the recorded signals, resonances, physical phenomena, precursors.

The work of scientists astrophysicists and specifically the Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Alexandrovich Kozyrev played a big role, who collected a huge amount of data and showed the connection that synchronizes the tectonics of the Earth, the Moon, the Sun, and hence the gravitational connection between them, providing resonant phenomena. [2,3]

The main stages of the genesis of an earthquake.

1. Resonance and the formation of a "pump" wave.

The planet is a plastic, to a certain extent - elastic mass of the asthenosphere, surrounded by a solid Earth's crust, which is pressed by the atmosphere. As a result, any low-frequency impact from from bottom to top gets the opposite effect, as in a rubber ball. The blocks of the earth's crust have varying degrees of mobility and are in constant motion due to the tidal effects of the Moon and Sun and the rotation of the Earth.

The tidal effect on the block creates a reverse effect on the Moon, causes its precession and seismic processes on its surface. The continuity of the processes of movement and vibrations reduce the effect of inertia.

«Just as the appearance of crackling and creaking of a rocking metal bar with a crack creates higher frequency impulses in the case of recording vibrations, so faults and blocks ready for an earthquake create characteristic peaks, packs of anomalies.»

Due to the interconnection of the actions and interactions of the Moon and the Earth (Moon, Sun and Earth), delays and friction between blocks ready for an earthquake create resonant effects. This causes lunar tectonic effects. (Probably, there is also a connection between the tectonics of the Earth and the appearance of prominences on the Sun).

On Earth, this creates resonant oscillations that excite the asthenosphere in the zones of the future hypocenter. At the same time, we observe characteristic precursors: an excited reaction of reptiles, anomalies in groundwater and the debit of gases (radon, methane, hydrogen, etc.) and others.

With the departure of the wave of "white noise" into the depths of the planet, the oscillations lower the frequency to a period of 2.2 - 2.5 seconds, which corresponds to the passage of the speed of light (the speed of a gravitational wave) to the Moon and back.

(Oscillations with a period of 16 minutes, corresponding to the gravitational wave feedback between the Earth and the Sun, were also registered by the author. This allowed us to assume that the Sun influences the amplitude of the anomaly peaks.)

In the case of nearby earthquakes (up to 300 - 500 km), hours, days before the earthquake shocks, the author detected resonant oscillations and the primary gravitational-seismic wave emanating from the resonance site in different directions.

The oscillations go deep into the planet until the end of the resonance, or until the oscillations are reflected from the opposite side of the planet. This maximum variant causes resonant effects that precede the earthquake on the opposite side of the planet by exactly 7.5 days.

This can be seen in the examples:

- vibrations of the Volgograd bridge and the subsequent earthquake in Vanuatu;

- fluctuations in the Suez Canal and the subsequent earthquake in Japan in 2011;

- fluctuations detected by the author in Kibbutz Hukuk a week before a strong earthquake in Mexico ... [ 3].

In addition, even the shocks, taken for an earthquake in the Chernobyl zone, were exactly 7 days ahead of the earthquake in the Rat Islands, which indicates the likelihood that these were resonant vibrations.

2. Formation of a standing wave.

When the resonant phenomena stop or when the wave is reflected from the “asthenosphere-earth crust” boundary, a “standing wave” is formed, which the author repeatedly recorded as a harbinger of a future earthquake by its projection in the clouds. These clouds are called "Herolds" by the author, their formation is described in a separate article.

https://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/heroldes-e?authuser=0

https://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/heroldes-1

These "Herolds" were fixed over the Volgograd bridge during its oscillations.

In the Summary, based on the results of an examination of the scientific foundations and tests for predicting real earthquakes in real conditions, the Expert Council of Russia recognized these clouds as one of the important precursors of earthquakes.

The chairman of the RES for the forecast of earthquakes and seismic hazard wrote:

“I think that the photographs of the “heralds” presented by you are convincing (taking into account the studies of cloud anomalies performed in Novosibirsk before earthquakes). ."

3. "Collapse" of the backward wave (KaY-wave). The beginning of the earthquake.

After the formation of a standing wave, a reverse wave arises, the KaY-wave. This is a low-frequency annular converging gravitational-seismic wave. Its front converges to the place where the epicenter of the future earthquake will be (in plan). The annular wave front is compressed and the wave amplitude increases as it approaches the epicenter of the future earthquake.

Sensors located on the surface of the Earth register it all the way when the noise level is exceeded. If the magnitude of the future earthquake is more than 7, the reverse gravitational-seismic wave (KaY-wave) is recorded by all stations along its entire path to the epicenter of the future earthquake.

The wave speed is basically constant 95 - 105 km per hour depending on the direction "for" or "against" the rotation of the Earth.

The theoretical calculation of the gravitational influence of the difference between the daily cycle of the Moon and the daily cycle of the Sun per unit of the Earth's surface gives exactly this speed.

The difference between the "lunar" and "solar" months: 2 - 2.5 revolutions (30.5 - 28 days). In 24 hours this is: 0.06 - 0.08 revolutions.

Linear speed at the circumference of the Earth at the equator of 36,000 km:

(36000 x 0.06 (0.08)) = 2160 - 2800 km per day.

Estimated speed (waves): 90 - 107 km / h

This fully corresponds to the speed of the KaY-wave, which is practically determined by dividing the distance from the earthquake epicenter to the sensor by the time interval between the registration of the corresponding anomaly and the beginning of the earthquake.

The same ratio is observed when calculating the correlation between these values with the obtained correlation coefficient of 0.98.[ 4].

Thus, the result of 15 years of practical observations of precursors, a high correlation coefficient [4], and exceptional forecast accuracy [4], which ensures the exclusion of false forecasts, confirms the proposed picture of the stages of earthquake genesis [3, 4].

Literature:

1. Л.Н. Петрова, Е.Г.Орлов, В.В. Карпинский. «О динамике и структуре колебаний Земли в декабре 2004 года по наблюдениям сейсмогравиметра в Санкт-Петербурге.» НИИФ им. Фока Спб Университет. Физика Земли. 2007.»№2.

2. Н.А. Козырев. «О связи тектонических процессов Земли и Луны». Изд. ЛГУ 1991г.

3. КОНФЕРЕНЦИЯ: «ТЕХНОЛОГИИ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ КОМПЛЕКСНОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ, ЗАЩИТЫ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ И ТЕРРИТОРИЙ ОТ ЧРЕЗВЫЧАЙНЫХ СИТУАЦИЙ - ПРОБЛЕМЫ, ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ, ИННОВАЦИИ». Cтр 301 - 306. Ягодин А.П. «ГЕНЕЗИС ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙ (И ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕ ПРЕДВЕСТНИКОВ, ВОЗНИКАЮЩИХ НА ВСЕХ ЭТАПАХ РАЗВИТИЯ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЯ)»

Москва, 17-19 мая 2011 г. https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=17085528

4. А.П.Ягодин «Kay-волна предупреждает землетрясение». –

Хайфа: Akavish, 2015. – 78 с.

5. А.Ягодин. Гравитационно-сейсмический резонанс, как основа генезиса землетрясений. «Известия науки». Сайт РАН. 2007 г.

6. NASA. Moonquakes. http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/15mar_moonquakes/

7. “Transforming Earthquake Early Warning SFDRR Strategy Into New Beneficiary Actions” June 22, 2021 Garry De La Pomerai

https://knowdisaster.com/transforming-earthquake-early-warning-sfdrr-strategy-into-new-beneficiary-actions/