In this paper, I analyse the macroeconomic effects of migration in a VAR and an estimated DSGE model using data from Germany. The focus of the paper is the estimated stochastic growth DSGE model which is a small open economy setting.
Previously presented as "Migration in a Small Open Economy: A Native Perspective" and "A Native Perspective of Migration in a Small Open Economy".
Brain waste occurs when migrants experience underemployment, tougher labour market conditions, and higher involuntary unemployment relative to natives. To investigate the macroeconomic effects of brain waste, and increases in migration, this paper employs a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy using asymmetric search and matching frictions.
Previously circulated as The Migrants’ Plight: A Skill-Job Mismatch
Under Review
Draft available by request
The number of robots employed by firms and productivity of robots is increasing at a growing rate which differs between countries. The automation of tasks by robots is a labour saving technology. Some countries are experience higher rates of automation, in effect leaving increased productivity gaps. Germany is the highest producer and consumer of automation technology in Europe. The risks of automation to jobs is focused towards low-skill sector yet automation replaces low-skill workers and increases the need for highly-skilled workers. To assess the role of these factors and combining the uncertainty over migration flows and automation, we construct an estimated DSGE model with endogenous migration decisions in a two-country setting and the role of automation on high and low-skilled migration.
More details coming soon
2023-2026
Can one migration model fit all? Population Europe - Policy Insight. (Co-authored with Jakub Bijak)
Who cares about uncertainty in migration flows? Population & Policy Compact 35/2022. (Co-authored with Jakub Bijak, Valentina Di Iasio, and Jackie Whaba)
Skills shortage in the EU: Ways towards labour market resilience Population Europe - Policy Insight
To the Labour Market’s Rescue: Policy Pathways Forward Population Europe - Policy Insight
Barker, E.R. (2020) The Economics of Brain Waste in Understanding Migration with Macroeconomics (ed J. Caballé, J. Llull and E. Vella) Chapter 4 pp 87-113
ISBN: 978-3-030-40980-7 DOI:10.1007/978-3-030-40981-4_4
Barker, E.R and J. Bijak, (2024). Ways of dealing with uncertainty in migration scenarios. In From Uncertainty to Policy: A Guide to Migration Scenarios, Chapter 6, pp. 66-77. Edward Elgar Publishing. (Open access)
ISBN: 9781035319794 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781035319800.00016