When the Land Dries Up, Big Farms Grow and Small Ones Exit, with Berk Oktem and Raja Chakir [Available on request]

This paper examines the impact of recurrent droughts on farm size and land concentration in France over the period 1970–2022. While droughts in developing countries are often associated with cropland expansion, we show that in France, they instead accelerate land concentration. Using panel data covering French 716 small agricultural regions and more than 344,000 farms, we analyze changes in farmers' land size following drought episodes. Drought exposure is measured using the Soil Wetness Index, capturing both absolute soil moisture deficits and relative deviations from region-specific historical normals.

Our results indicate that severe droughts significantly increase farm size, particularly when they occur during summer and autumn. These effects operate through two main channels: droughts depress agricultural land prices and force smaller farms to exit the sector. Larger farms, by contrast, are better able to expand along the extensive margin, facilitated by the withdrawal of smaller producers. Moreover, we find that climate risk insurance and CAP Pillar I subsidies amplify these concentration dynamics by supporting farm expansion rather than mitigating inequality. Overall, our findings highlight the structural consequences of climate shocks in developed agricultural systems and underscore the need for policy interventions that promote both equity and climate resilience in agriculture.

The Role of Organic Farming in Hedgerow Conservation, with Raja Chakir

https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5701273

Hedgerows are key components of agricultural landscapes, providing biodiversity, soil protection, and ecological resilience. Despite their recognized benefits, hedgerow density in France declined by nearly 50\% between 1975 and 2004, and existing agricultural policies have failed to reverse this trend. This paper examines the relationship between organic farming and hedgerow dynamics, arguing that organic farmers have stronger incentives to preserve and expand hedgerow networks due to their reliance on ecosystem services, particularly natural pest control. We combine plot-level data from the French Land Parcel Identification System (2015--2022) with detailed hedgerow inventories (BD Haie V1 and V2) to estimate the causal impact of organic conversion on hedgerow density. Using a two-way fixed effects model at the farm level, we find that, over the period, the hedgerow density gap between organic and conventional farms increased by 0.95 meters per hectare. This divergence is driven by both hedgerow expansion on organic farms and continued hedgerow losses on conventional farms. The timing of conversion plays a key role: farms that converted earlier exhibit the largest increases in hedgerow density, suggesting that hedgerow planting and maintenance intensify as farmers integrate into the organic system. Our findings highlight the complementarity between organic farming and landscape conservation. Targeting hedgerow preservation programs toward organic farms may yield dual benefits by enhancing ecosystem services while promoting sustainable agriculture.

Analysis of the presence of an organic farmland premium price. [Available on request]

The European "Green Deal" sets a goal of 25% of land in organic agriculture by 2030, compared to currently 8.5%. However, the transition to organic agriculture is not encouraged because it does not generate additional income for farmers. This lack of monetary incentive slows the conversion dynamics of farmers in France.

In order to solve this problem, we are looking to identify other sources of income allowed by organic farming. We are assuming here the existence of a "premium" for organic farmland (organic land would be sold at higher prices than conventional land), allowing the farmer to realize a capital gain. The existence of this premium is justified as the payment for the relatively more numerous ecological services on conventional land (reduction of erosion, improvement of soil water storage capacity, etc.). In this study, we compare the sales prices of 460000 lands sold between 2017 and 2020 (41000 of which are organic). The results, based on a MCO regression with control of Ricardian rent and residential rent determinants, show that organic land is sold at the same price as conventional land (see 15% cheaper in 2018). This can be explained by a spatial mismatch between the supply and demand of organic land. If an organic farmer wants to buy farmland, he will have a conventional opportunity about 3km from his farm compared to 7km for an organic opportunity. This average difference of 4km allows us to understand the non-difference in prices between the two types of land.

Organic or Conventional Farmland Database was created from Graphic Parcel Register database (non-anonymous version available via CASD) and Demand for land value (Open Access and available online)

Water policy's influence on local organic farming development,  [Available on request]

Since 2009, France has implemented a Water Catchment Area (WCA) protection policy aimed at preserving and restoring water quality by promoting the adoption of agri-environmental practices, including organic farming (OF). This paper investigates whether the policy has effectively fostered the development of OF and other sustainable practices, such as increasing grassland share and permanent cover crops.

Focusing on 1,215 WCA —covering 17.5\% of French farmers as of 2021—we apply a Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design (Spatial RDD) to construct an optimal control group, combined with a Staggered Difference-in-Differences approach (Callaway and Sant’Anna, 2021)  to account for the timing of policy implementation. Surprisingly, our findings reveal that the WCA policy may have slowed the development of organic farming, with treated areas lagging behind neighboring untreated zones. Additionally, we observe strategic behavior among farmers, particularly a reallocation between temporary and permanent grasslands to maximize agri-environmental subsidies.

These results suggest that, despite its well-intended aims, the WCA policy may have unintentionally obstructed the adoption of sustainable practices due to poorly designed incentives, raising important questions about the effectiveness of current environmental policy tools in agriculture.

Spatial factors influencing the territorial gaps of organic farming in France, with Phu Nguyen Van and Anne Stenger [Available on request]

Starting from organic farming ratios of municipalities in France in 2019, the objective of this paper was to identify local conditions for the development of organic farming. We began by identifying four characteristics that explain the heterogeneous development of organic farming practices in France using a Spatial Durbin Model to control the spatial autocorrelation of organic practices. This study shows that the protected designation of origin label has some ambiguous impacts on practices (i.e., positive for wine labels and not significant for livestock labels). The proximity of a high demand for organic products, instrumentalised by the number of organic shops (Two-Stage Least Squares), influences organic farming. Also, municipalities with low quality land and a high share of forest participate in the development of organic farming.