Research

Working Papers

Welfare dynamics in Colombia: Results from synthetic-panels. Policy Research working paper; no. WPS 8441. Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. (with Balcazar, C. F., Dang, H. A., Olivieri, S. and Pico, J.)

Abstract

• This study explores the short-run transitions between poverty, vulnerability, and middle class, using synthetic panels constructed from multiple rounds of Colombia's Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares (GEIH) that are based on the methods proposed in Dang and Lanjouw (2013, 2016) and Dang et al. (2014). This analysis reports results from two different approaches to define a vulnerability line: the first one employs a non-parametric and parsimonious model, while the second utilizes a fully parametric regression model with covariates. Estimation results suggest a range of between $8 to $13 per day per person in 2005 PPP dollars as the vulnerability line. Using an average daily vulnerability line of $10 per day per person, subsequent estimates on welfare dynamics suggest that, during the past decade 20 percent of the Colombian population experiences downward mobility and the remaining 24 percent experienced upward mobility. Furthermore, upward mobility increases with higher education levels, and is lower for female-headed households.

But... what is the poverty rate today ? testing poverty nowcasting methods in Latin America and the Caribbean. Policy Research working paper; no. WPS 8104. Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. (with Caruso, G., Lucchetti, L., Scot, T., and Castañeda, A.)

Abstract

• Poverty estimates usually lag behind two years, which makes it difficult to provide real-time poverty analysis to assess the impact of economic crisis and shocks among the less well-off, and subsequently limits policy responses. This paper takes advantage of up-to-date average economic welfare indicators like the gross domestic product per capita and comprehensive harmonized micro data of more than 180 household surveys in 15 Latin American countries. The paper tests three commonly used poverty nowcasting methods and ranks their performance by comparing country-specific and regional poverty nowcasts with actual poverty estimates for 2003–14 period. The validation results show that the two bottom-up approaches, which simulate the performance of each agent in the economy to nowcast overall poverty, perform relatively better than the top-down approach, which uses welfare estimates to explain the performance of poverty at an aggregate level over time. The results are robust to additional sensitivity and robustness tests.

The heterogeneous legacy of rebel and army violence on social capital: evidence from the civil war in Peru (with Salgado, E.) [Under Review]

Abstract

• This paper exploits the progression of the 1980-2000 conflict in Peru over time and space to show that exposure to government violence reduces citizen’s perceptions on the importance of voting and increases the likelihood of voting null, while it reduces participation in civil organizations. The effects vary by the identity of the perpetrator, since the results show that exposure to government violence has negative effects on voting perceptions and behavior, while violence from terrorist groups has a negligible or smaller impact. In addition, our results suggest that the late teens and early twenties is a key period to influence later voting behavior. Finally, results reveal a negative relation between exposure to government violence during childhood and teenage years with the level of participation in political and social organizations, while exposure to violence from terrorist groups leads to higher levels of participation in the same organizations.

What do 50 years of Census records in Latin America can tell us about the relationship between human opportunities and individual income? (with Caruso, G., Calvo, O. and Castañeda, R.A.)

Abstract

• Understanding how development really happens requires understanding the evolution of its drivers and their relationship with individuals’ income. We analyze the expansion of access to education and basic services in Latin America and its association with the evolution of incomes in the region. We focus on the importance of access to opportunities as one of the drivers of development and highlight the role of policymaking. Our main results show that the level of access experienced early in life is positively correlated with incomes at adulthood, although not every country follows the same strategy to increase access to education and basic services. We propose a comprehensive analysis of historic census records to add granularity to the assessment of the development of countries, matched with detailed individual-level information from household surveys of several countries in the region. This paper opens a new research agenda that it is discussed in the paper.

Does conflict undermine social capital? Long-run evidence from Peru

Abstract

• Could conflict have a lasting impact on a society’s social capital even long after it ends? If so, how does conflict exposure affect individuals’ trust in government and institutions and their participation in social organizations? This paper exploits the progression of the 1980-2000 conflict in Peru over time and space to show that exposure to conflict reduces trust in government institutions and participation in local social organizations associated with the provision of public services. Overall the results suggest that exposure to conflict has negative effects on trust in institutions such as district and province governments and institutions of the electoral system and the media, although these effects do not translate to other types of civil organizations like the Church, the Ombudsman’s office or to the police. The estimated results suggest that the age period from 7 to 18 years old is key for the development of trust in government authorities, while the period immediately after the minimum legal age for voting (18 years old in Peru) is relevant to establishing trust in the institutions of the electoral system. These negative impacts seem to be driven by exposure to violence perpetrated by government forces. Finally, results showing the effects of civil conflict violence on participation reveal a negative relation between conflict exposure and participation in groups associated with the public provision of services such as education and food security, while the effects of violence on participation in cultural, political and social organizations are negligible.

World Bank Reports

• Spatial heterogeneity and household life cycle in the Multidimensional Poverty Index: the case of Colombia. November 2018 (joint with Felipe Balcazar, Sergio Olivieri and Julieth Pico). Poverty and Equity Note No. 10, World Bank.
• Distributional Effects of Investments in Road Infrastructure: The case of Colombia's 4th Generation Concession Program. August 2018 (joint with Carlos Rodriguez-Castelan and Jorge Franco). Poverty & Equity Notes, World Bank.
• Childhood poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean. June 2016 (joint with Leonardo Lucchetti, Emma Monsalve, German Reyes, Liliana Sousa and Martha Viveros). Poverty and Inequality Monitoring: Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank.

Book Chapters

• Public-Private partnership at public water and sewerage company Emfapatumbes. (in Spanish), Ch. 2, (with Jose Luis Bonifaz), in R. Urrunaga and J.L. Bonifaz, eds., Case studies on regulation of public infrastructure and services in Peru, Lima: Centro de Investigación de la Universidad del Pacífico, 2008. --(Apuntes de Estudio; 67).
• Tariffs in SEDAPAL: the tortuous task of regulating public companies. (in Spanish), Ch. 3, (with Jose Luis Bonifaz), in R. Urrunaga and J.L. Bonifaz, eds., Case studies on regulation of public infrastructure and services in Peru, Lima: Centro de Investigación de la Universidad del Pacífico, 2008. --(Apuntes de Estudio; 67).

Non-academic

Blogs

How level is the playing field between countries in Latin America and the Caribbean? (joint with Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez). In The DATA Blog, The World Bank.

Selected reports

What is the level and degree of competition on the market of notary services? (in Spanish) August 2011, (with Santiago Dávila and Melina Caldas). Documento de Trabajo Nº 01-2010/GEE. Gerencia de Estudios Económicos, INDECOPI.

Markets observatory: the market of fishing in Peru (in Spanish), December 2009, (with Santiago Dávila and Rosa Castillo). Observatorio de Mercados. Año 3. Nº 11. Diciembre 2009. Gerencia de Estudios Económicos, INDECOPI.