Research

Table of Contents

Education, Tax, and Safety Net Policy Research Related to Labor Market Outcomes

Tools At the Intersection of the Safety Net Policies, Workforce Development, and Labor Market Outcomes & Related Research/Analysis

Applications of Research

All Research articles, reports, and blogs

Research Summary

The examples below demonstrate my long-standing interest in the intersection of labor markets, economic mobility, and policy. See 'All Research articles, reports, and blogs' for more of my work.

Education, Tax, and Safety Net Policy Research Related to Labor Market Outcomes

- 🌟Co-authored Federal Reserve Working Paper: Does Access to Free Prekindergarten Increase Maternal Labor Supply?” (20 citations)
- 🌟Co-authored Peer-Reviewed Publication in National Tax Journal: Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?”. (33 citations)
- 🌟Report analyzing a hypothetical change to CCDF: Restructuring the Eligibility Policies of the Child Care and Development Fund to Address Benefit Cliffs and Affordability: Florida as a Case Study
- 🌟Sole-authored Peer Review Publication in State and Local Government Review “Balancing The Dual Policy Goals of the Social Safety Net: A Guide for State Policy Makers.
- Co-Authored RAND Perspective We’ll Never Make It: Insufficient Apprenticeships in the Construction Industry.” RAND Perspective. RAND Corporation.
- 🌟3-Chapter Dissertation focused on education policies and post-secondary attainment, which I view as a path to better labor market outcomes
  - Chapter 1: Perceived Affordability as a Mediator Between Socioeconomic Status and Postsecondary Outcomes: Evidence from a Structural Equation Model
    - Models the relationship between a student’s socioeconomic status (SES) when in high school, perceived ability to pay, and their later post-secondary outcomes (i.e. enrollment and degree attainment) using a structural equation model and a large nationally representative longitudinal survey spanning 2009 to 2021.
  - Chapter 2: Outreach, Participation, and Perceptions: A Process Evaluation of CalKIDS
    - Examines the implementation of a new child development policy in California, which aims to support college-going among low-income students by providing universal, progressive education savings accounts. Using a mixed-methods approach—including administrative data analysis, surveys, and interviews with program participants and staff—I explore how CalKIDS is being implemented, how students perceive the program, and what barriers may be limiting account claiming and fund use.
  - Chapter 3: Early Impacts of California’s Universal FAFSA Policy: Can a Soft Universal FAFSA Policy Increase Financial Aid Awards or College Enrollment?
    - Examines the effect of a new universal FAFSA policy in California that aims for every high school senior to complete a FAFSA or the state financial aid form. This policy represents a major effort to increase college-going by ensuring that students learn their specific net cost of college, after accounting for financial aid. Using a panel of nearly all California high schools from 2017–18 through 2023–24. To estimate the effect of the policy on FAFSA completion rates, I apply two difference-in-difference designs; one exploits variation in the treatment of public and private schools and another exploits variation in schools’ baseline FAFSA completion rates, which capture treatment intensity. I also use the policy as an instrumental variable to estimate the causal effect of FAFSA completion on enrollment.

Measurement of Labor Market Dynamics

- 📈Wage Growth Measure - Co-developed with a colleague. Tracks the median wage growth of continuously employed workers over time. Widely cited by media and policymakers.
  - Blog explaining how the wage growth measure corresponds with the unemployment rate.
- 🛠️ 📈Labor Force Participation (LFP) Tool -I developed this tool to decompose changes in labor force participation by demographic and behavioral factors.
  - Blog documenting the decline in labor force participation due to an increase in the share not participating due to health problems.
  - 🌟Peer-Reviewed Research Paper explaining why LFP is difficult to predict.
  - Methodology document.
  - Data and Codebook that stands behind this tool, which I created using Census's raw CPS data files.

Tools At the Intersection of the Safety Net Policies, Workforce Development, and Labor Market Outcomes & Related Research/Analysis

- 🛠️ 📈CLIFF Tools- Suite of tools I co-developed for workforce development centers, used to model how earnings interact with the social safety net for different careers.
  - 🌟Report explaining how benefits cliffs disincentivize economic mobility: Benefits Cliffs and the Financial Incentives for Career Advancement: A Case Study of the Health Care Services Career Pathway
  - 🌟Process Evaluation of the CLIFF tool.
  - 🌟 Co-authored Peer-Reviewed Paper about the Wage Growth Projections Model used in the CLIFF tool, which I co-created. The model predicts occupation and location-specific wages over a person's life using Occupation Employment Statistics Data.
  - Blog explaining how the safety net differed during COVID: Amid the COVID-19 Crisis, a Tale of Two Southeastern Cities.
  - Blog documenting differences in income and public assistance by race: The Racial Income Gap and Benefits Cliffs.
- 🛠️📈Interactive tool showing the intersection between guaranteed income and social safety net receipt. I use this tool in my consulting work with GI Pilot Programs. To access the tool, click the 'calculate benefits loss' tab on the link above. See example in next section below.
  - Blog explaining the GI tool: Guaranteed Income (GI) Dashboard: Visualizing Public Benefits Loss for Participants in GI Pilot Programs.
- 🛠️📈Interactive tool that allows users to visualize the social safety
  - Blog explaining the Policy Rules Database: Visualizing the US Social Safety Net. See example in next section below.

Applications of Research

Open Sourced Database: The Policy Rules Database

The Policy Rules Database is a GitHub Repository is designed to help researchers, policymakers and practitioners helping program participants to better understand the rules of the Social Safety Net. For every major Federal and State means-tested program and tax credit, the PRD provides detailed explanations of the program structure, including eligibility rules, formulas for computing the dollar value of each program, and interactions between programs. The PRD also includes a free online visualization tool called the “PRD Dashboard” that allows users to easily estimate the value of the social safety net.

An example of how the PRD can be used to understand the phaseout of public assistance programs is shown below. For more information, see my these presentation slides. A working paper is in progress. Several tools have been developed using the PRD, including the Guaranteed Income Dashboard described below.

Consulting Project: Visualizing theThe Effective Value of Guaranteed Income

The Benefits Loss Calculator: is a calculator I created for guaranteed income pilots using the Policy Rules Database. It is designed for practitioners and policymakers trying to implement Guaranteed Income programs in their area. Users can select their location and identify their target population by family type and type of government assistance programs they believe their target population to be enrolled in. The calculator then shows the effective value of guaranteed income, net of loss of government assistance and increases in taxes. This calculator has been used by over 15 GI pilots across the country who have helped over 8000 prospective program participants understand the effect of GI on their public benefits and tax credits. I also have a working paper that simulates a national guaranteed income program. See the slides here. See my consulting website if you need a benefits loss calculator for your pilot program.

EXAMPLE OF THE BENFITS LOSS CALCULATOR SHOWING THE NET GAINS FROM A $500/MONTH GUARANTEED INCOME

All Research articles, reports, and blogs

Journal Articles

Terry, Ellyn. “Balancing The Dual Policy Goals of the Social Safety Net: A Guide for State Policy Makers” State and Local Government Review, 2024. https://doi.org/10.5296/ber.v12i2.19731

IIlin, Elias, and Ellyn Terry. 2022. “Estimating Occupation and Location Specific Wages over the Life Cycle.” Business and Economic Research, 12 (2): 46. https://doi.org/10.5296/ber.v12i2.19731

Altig, Dave, Alan Auerbach, Patrick Higgins, Darryl Koehler, Laurence Kotlikoff, Ellyn Terry, and Victor Ye, 2020. “Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?”. National Tax Journal, 73 (4). https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2020.4.08

Higgins, Patrick, Julie L Hotchkiss, and Ellyn Terry. 2019. "Evolution of Behavior, Uncertainty, and the Difficulty of Predicting Labor Force Participation." Business and Economic Research [Online], 9.4: 157-178. https://doi.org/10.5296/ber.v9i4.15350

Working Papers

Ilin, Elias, Samantha Shampine, and Ellyn Terry. 2022.“Does Access to Free Prekindergarten Increase Maternal Labor Supply?” FRB Atlanta Working Paper Series 2022-3. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. https://doi.org/10.29338/wp2022-03

Hartig, Seth, Ilin, Elias, McTier, Austin, Reyes, Edgar, and Terry, Ellyn. “Modeling the US Social Safety Net using the Policy Rules Database.”

Reports & Discussion Papers

AlFakhri, Marwa, Ellyn Terry, Jeffrey B. Wenger, and Melanie A. Zaber. Expected November 2024. “We’ll Never Make It: Insufficient Apprenticeships in the Construction Industry.” RAND Perspective. RAND Corporation.

Ruder, Alexander and Ellyn Terry. “Benefits Cliffs and Career Advancement Coaching with the Atlanta Fed’s CLIFF Tools: Implementation Evaluation of the National Pilot,” Atlanta Fed Community & Economic Development Discussion Paper Series, 2024-1. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. https://doi.org/10.29338/dp2024-01

Birken, Brittany, Ilin, Elias, Ruder, Alexander, and Ellyn Terry. 2021. “Restructuring the Eligibility Policies of the Child Care and Development Fund to Address Benefit Cliffs and Affordability: Florida as a Case Study.” Community & Economic Development Discussion Paper Series, 2021-01. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Alexander Ruder, Julie Siwicki, Ellyn Terry, and Tamilore Toyin-Adelaja. 2020. “Benefits Cliffs as a Barrier to Career Advancement for Low-Income Adults: Insights from Employment Services Providers” Community & Economic Development Discussion Paper Series, 2020-2. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Altig, David, Ilin, Elias, Alexander Ruder, and Ellyn Terry. 2020.”Benefits Cliffs and the Financial Incentives for Career Advancement: A Case Study of the Health Care Services Career Pathway Atlanta Fed Community & Economic Development, 2020-1. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Terry, Ellyn and Mels de Zeeuw. 2018. “How Do Firms Respond to Hiring Difficulties? Evidence from the Federal Reserve Banks' Small Business Credit Survey”. Atlanta Fed Community & Economic Development Discussion Paper, 2018-01. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

McKay, Shannon, Terry, Ellyn & Wavering, Emily. 2017. “Rural Employer Firms”. 2016 Small Business Credit Report Series. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Atlanta.

Barkley, Brett, Jessica Battisto, Claire Kramer Mills, Scott Lieberman, Ellyn Terry, Emily Wavering, and Ann Marie Wiersch. 2017. “Report on Employer Firms.” 2016 Small Business Credit Report Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, St Louis, San Francisco.

Barkley, Brett, Jessica Battisto, Claire Kramer Mills, Ellyn Terry, and Emily Wavering. 2016. “Report on Employer Firms.” 2015 Small Business Credit Report Series. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, St Louis, San Francisco.

Kramer Mills, Claire & Ellyn Terry. 2015. “The Financing Experiments of Nonemployer Firms.” 2014 Small Business Credit Report Series. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Richmond and New York.

Kramer Mills, Claire & Ellyn Terry. 2015. “Joint Small Business Credit Survey Report”. 2014 Atlanta Fed Annual Report. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Cleveland, Richmond and New York.

Charles Davidson and Ellyn Terry. 2015. "The Gazelle Project." Economy Matters. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Blogs & Short Articles

Elias Ilin, Alexander Ruder, and Ellyn Terry. "The Racial Income Gap and Benefits Cliffs." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Partners Update (September/October 2020).

Elias Ilin, John Robertson, Alex Ruder, and Ellyn Terry. “Amid the COVID-19 Crisis, a Tale of Two Cities,” macroblog. April 9, 2020.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Weighting the Wage Growth Tracker," macroblog. February 28, 2018.

Ellyn Terry. "Is Poor Health Hindering Economic Growth?," macroblog. August 30, 2017.

Ellyn Terry. "An Update on Labor Force Participation," macroblog. July 12, 2017.

Ellyn Terry. "Are Small Loans Hard to Find? Evidence from the Federal Reserve Banks' Small Business Survey," macroblog. May 11, 2017.

Dave Altig and Ellyn Terry. "Can Tight Labor Markets Inhibit Investment Growth?," macroblog. February 28, 2017.

Ellyn Terry. "Examining Changes in Labor Force Participation," macroblog. February 6, 2017.

Ellyn Terry. "Outside Looking In: Why Has Labor Force Participation Increased?," macroblog. November 22, 2016.

Ellyn Terry. "Is There a Gender Wage Growth Gap?," macroblog. November 14, 2016.

Ellyn Terry. "It's Not Just Millennials Who Aren't Buying Homes," macroblog. June 9, 2016.

Ellyn Terry. "Are People in Middle-Wage Jobs Getting Bigger Raises?," macroblog. May 19, 2016.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Labor Force Participation: Aging Is Only Half of the Story," macroblog. April 15, 2016.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Which Wage Growth Measure Best Indicates Slack in the Labor Market?," macroblog. April 4, 2016.

Ellyn Terry. "Collateral Requirements and Nonbank Online Lenders: Evidence from the 2015 Small Business Credit Survey," macroblog. March 15, 2016.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Are Paychecks Picking Up the Pace?," macroblog. February 17, 2016.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Shrinking Labor Market Opportunities for the Disabled?," macroblog. January 29, 2016.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Labor Report Silver Lining? ZPOP Ratio Continued to Rise in September," macroblog. October 5, 2015.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "The ZPOP Ratio: A Simple Take on a Complicated Labor Market," macroblog. September 22, 2015.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Have Changing Job and Worker Characteristics Restrained Wage Growth?," macroblog. July 15, 2015.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "New Atlanta Fed Series Shows Wage Growth Held Steady in May," macroblog. June 29, 2015.

Ellyn Terry. "Will the Elevated Share of Part-Time Workers Last?," macroblog. June 19, 2015.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Signs of Strengthening Wage Growth?," macroblog. May 1, 2015.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Signs of Improvement in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation," macroblog. March 6, 2015.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "What's (Not) Up with Wage Growth?," macroblog. February 17, 2015.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Are We Becoming a Part-Time Economy?," macroblog. February 12, 2015.

Ellyn Terry. "Contrasting the Financing Needs of Different Types of Firms: Evidence From a New Small Business Survey," macroblog. January 15, 2015.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Chances of Finding Full-Time Employment Have Improved," macroblog. December 23, 2014.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Exploring the Increasingly Widespread Decline in Involuntary Part-Time Work," macroblog. December 19, 2014.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "For Middle-Skill Occupations, Where Have All the Workers Gone?," macroblog. November 20, 2014.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Wage Growth of Part-Time versus Full-Time Workers: Evidence from the CPS," macroblog. November 10, 2014.

Melinda Pitts, John Robertson, and Ellyn Terry. "What's behind Declining Labor Force Participation? Test Your Hypothesis with Our New Data Tool," macroblog. October 15, 2014.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "What Kind of Job for Part-Time Pat?," macroblog. August 25, 2014.

Ellyn Terry. "What’s Driving the Part-Time Labor Market? Results from an Atlanta Fed Survey," macroblog. August 5, 2014.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Part-Time for Economic Reasons: A Cross-Industry Comparison," macroblog. July 18, 2014.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Looking Beyond the Job-Finding Rate: The Difficulty of Finding Full-Time Work," macroblog. June 9, 2014.

Dave Altig, John Robertson, and Ellyn Terry. "How Discouraged Are the Marginally Attached?," macroblog. June 2, 2014.

Ellyn Terry. "Where Do Young Firms Get Financing? Evidence from the Atlanta Fed Small Business Survey," macroblog. May 20, 2014.

Dave Altig and Ellyn Terry. "How Has Disability Affected Labor Force Participation?," macroblog. May 9, 2014.

Melinda Pitts, John Robertson, and Ellyn Terry. "Reasons for the Decline in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation," macroblog. April 10, 2014.

Melinda Pitts, John Robertson, and Ellyn Terry. "A Closer Look at Post-2007 Labor Force Participation Trends," macroblog. April 8, 2014.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "The Pattern of Job Creation and Destruction by Firm Age and Size," macroblog. February 26, 2014.

Ellyn Terry. "What Accounts for the Decrease in the Labor Force Participation Rate?," macroblog. January 17, 2014.

Timothy Dunne and Ellyn Terry. "Labor Force Participation Rates Revisited," macroblog. December 19, 2013.

Ellyn Terry. "Is Credit to Small Businesses Flowing Faster? Evidence from the Atlanta Fed Small Business Survey," macroblog. November 15, 2013.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Certain about Uncertainty," macroblog. October 4, 2013.

Jessica Dill and Ellyn Terry. "Examining the Reported Decline in the First-Time Homebuyer Share," Real Estate Research. August 29, 2013.

Ellyn Terry. "The Hiring Forecasts of Small Firms: Will the Pace of Employment Growth Pick Up?," macroblog. June 7, 2013.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "2013 Business Hiring Plans: Employment, Effort, Hours, and Fiscal Uncertainty," macroblog. February 5, 2013.

Ellyn Terry. "Anticipating Growth despite a Slowdown? Results from the Recent Small Business Survey," macroblog. December 12, 2012.

Whitney Mancuso and Ellyn Terry. "2013 Business Hiring Gazelles, and Why They Matter," macroblog. November 29, 2012.

Ellyn Terry. "Trends in Small Business Lending," macroblog. October 4, 2012.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Young versus mature small firms seeking credit," macroblog. June 28, 2012.

Ellyn Terry. "Stimulating small business activity: Still a struggle," macroblog. June 27, 2011.

Ellyn Terry. "What's Going On with the Labor Force Participation Rate?." Economy Matters podcast. October 10, 2017.

Ellyn Terry. "It's Unhealthy—The Decline in Labor Force Participation." ECONversations. August 23, 2017.

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