Embedded Files
South Australia 2026
South Australia 2026
Projected TPP vote: LAB 58% (+4), OPP 42% (-4)
Projected primary vote: LAB 37% (-3), ONP 23% (+20), LIB 18% (-18), GRN 11% (+2), OTH 11% (-2)
Actual TPP vote: LAB 59% (+3), OPP 41% (-3)
Actual primary vote: LAB 37% (-3), ONP 23% (+20), LIB 19% (-17), GRN 10% (+2), OTH 10% (-2)
TPP error: +/- 1 (Grade A)
Maximum crossbench primary error: +/- 1 (Grade A)
Projected seat count: LAB 35, LNP 6, OTH 4, ONP 2 (LAB Majority)
Actual seat count: LAB 34, LNP 5, OTH 4, ONP 4 (LAB Majority)
Maximum error: +/- 2
Total error: 4 (Grade A)
Correct winners: 81% (Grade B).
State-wide uniform swing.
Model archive: Correction, Final, Campaign.
Map archive: Correction, Final, Campaign.
United States 2025
United States 2025
Governor (overall):
Lean D | NJ
Likely D | VA
Correct winners: 100%, representing 2/2 contests (Grade A)
Governor (battlegrounds):
Projected margins:
NJ: D +3.1
Actual margins:
NJ: D +13.9
Average error: +/- 10.8 (Grade F)
Probability calibration
Statewide contests:
1 (governor): 90% simulated vs. 100% actual
1 (governor): 80% simulated vs. 100% actual
Yukon 2025
Yukon 2025
Model archive: Correction, Final, Leger 2025.
Map archive: Correction, Final, Leger 2025.
Methodology: This electoral model uses a territory-wide proportional swing model, similar to our methodology for Federal. The swings are determined by an aggregate of the latest 3 polls, adjusted for bias. Additionally, due to the miniscule amount of seats, if a party did not run a candidate in 2021, the swing will be applied on the result of a separate prior election.
*MOE at +/-6%, +/-20% for each riding. Seats +/-5. 95% confidence.
Over 65% of projected winners would win.
Newfoundland and Labrador 2025
Newfoundland and Labrador 2025
Model archive: Correction, Final, Narrative.
Map archive: Correction, Final, Narrative.
Methodology: This electoral model uses a province-wide proportional swing, similar to our methodology for Federal. The swings are determined by a recent poll, adjusted for bias.
*MOE for each variable at +/-6% and +/-20% for each riding. Seats +/-5. 95% confidence.
Over 65% of projected winners would win.
Australia 2025
Australia 2025
Model archive: Correction, Final, Campaign
Map archive: Correction, Final, Campaign
Methodology: This is a regional proportional swing election model. Results from the previous election in each region are used to calculate the percentage difference between the current polling aggregate, and then added (or subtracted) from 1 to create a regional swing value. That regional swing value is multiplied to each parties' votes from the last election and transposed onto the new electoral map, to create a projection for each riding.
*MOE at +/-3%, +/-6% for regionals and +/-10% for each riding. Seats +/-20. 95% confidence.
Over 85% of projected winners would win.
Canada 2025
Canada 2025
Model archive: Correction (Thread), Final (Thread), Week 4 (Thread), Week 3 (Thread), Week 2 (Thread), Week 1 (Thread), Pre-Writ (Thread), PM MC (Thread), 2025 2/8 (Thread), 2025 1/8 (Thread), DPM Resigns (Thread), Trump Tariffs (Thread), Rate Cut (Thread), STDC (Thread), CSA END (Thread), YFB DNC (Thread), 2024 5/8 (Thread), 2024 4/8 (Thread), Redistribution (Thread), 2024 3/8 (Thread), 2024 2/8 (Thread), 2024 1/8 (Thread), NY 23/24 (Thread), 2023 8/8 (Thread), Carbon Tax (Thread), Singh Kept (Thread), Nazi Visit (Thread), Greenbelt (Thread), 2023 6/8 (Thread), 2023 5/8 (Thread), 2023 4/8 (Thread), 2023 3/8 (Thread), 2023 2/8 (Thread), 2023 1/8 (Thread), NY 22/23 (Thread), 2022 8/8 (Thread), 2022 7/8 (Thread), LO PP (Thread), 2022 5/8 (Thread), 2022 4/8 (Thread), NDP CSA (Thread), Convoy (Thread), 2022 1/8 (Thread), 2021 8/8 (Thread), Post-Mortem (Thread).
Map archive: Correction, Final, Week 4, Week 3, Week 2, Week 1, Pre-Writ, PM MC, 2025 2/8, 2025 1/8, DPM Resigns, Trump Tariffs, Rate Cut, STDC, CSA END, YFB DNC, 2024 5/8, 2024 4/8, Redistribution, 2024 3/8, 2024 2/8, 2024 1/8, NY 23/24, 2023 8/8, Carbon Tax, Singh Kept, Nazi Visit, Greenbelt, 2023 6/8, 2023 5/8, 2023 4/8, 2023 3/8, 2023 2/8, 2023 1/8, NY 22/23, 2022 8/8, 2022 7/8, PP LO, 2022 5/8, 2022 4/8, NDP CSA, Convoy, 2022 1/8, 2021 8/8, Post-Mortem.
Methodology: This is a regional proportional swing election model. Results from the previous election in each region are used to calculate the percentage difference between the current polling aggregate, and then added (or subtracted) from 1 to create a regional swing value. That regional swing value is multiplied to each parties' votes from the last election and transposed onto the new electoral map, to create a projection for each riding.
*MOE at +/-3%, +/-6% for regionals and +/-10% for each riding. Seats +/-20. 95% confidence.
Over 85% of projected winners would win.
Western Australia 2025
Western Australia 2025
Projected TPP vote: LAB 57% (-13), LNP 46% (+13)
Projected primary vote: GRN 9% (+2), OTH 13% (+5)
Actual TPP vote: LAB 57% (-13), LNP 46% (+13)
Actual primary vote: GRN 11% (+4), OTH 14% (+6)
TPP error: +/- 0 (Grade A)
Maximum crossbench primary error: +/- 2 (Grade B)
Projected seat count: LAB 43, LNP 16 (LAB Majority)
Actual seat count: LAB 46, LNP 13 (LAB Majority)
Maximum error: +/- 3
Total error: 6 (Grade B)
Correct winners: 95% (Grade A).
State-wide uniform swing.
Projected LAB
Dawesville
Darling Range
Kalamunda
Bicton
Kingsley
Murray-Wellington
Pilbara
Jandakot
Hillarys
Kimberley
Mount Lawley
Bunbury
Forrestfield
Collie-Preston
Fremantle
Mandurah
Joondalup
Landsdale
Balcatta
Midland
Swan Hills
Victoria Park
Oakford
Morley
Mindarie
Cockburn
Bibra Lake
Wanneroo
Perth
Maylands
Belmont
Thornlie
Cannington
Secret Harbour
Bassendean
Butler
Southern River
Girrawheen
Armadale
West Swan
Baldivis
Rockingham
Kwinana
Projected LNP
Kalgoorlie
Albany
Riverton
South Perth
Scarborough
Geraldton
Bateman
Carine
Nedlands
Warren-Blackwood
Churchlands
Vasse
Cottesloe
Mid-West
Central Wheatbelt
Roe
Ontario 2025
Ontario 2025
Methodology: This electoral model uses a province-wide proportional swing, similar to our methodology for Federal. The swings are determined by a regularly-updating aggregate of approximately 4 recent polls, in a given time period.
*MOE at +/-4% and +/-15% for each riding. Seats +/-15. 95% confidence.
Over 75% of projected winners would win.
Deutschland 2025
Deutschland 2025
Prognostizierter Stimmenanteil: CDU/CSU 32% (+8), AFD 21% (+11), SPD 15% (-11), GRN 12% (-3), LNK 6% (+1), BSW 5% (+5), FDP 4% (-7), AND 5% (-4)
Tatsächlicher Stimmenanteil: CDU/CSU 29% (+5), AFD 21% (+11), SPD 16% (-10), GRN 12% (-3), LNK 9% (+4), BSW 5% (+5), FDP 4% (-7), AND 5% (-4)
Maximaler Fehler: +/- 3
Gesamtfehler: 7 (Klasse A)
Voraussichtliche Sitzzahl: CDU/CSU 234, AFD 154, SPD 110, GRN 88, LNK 44 (CDU/CSU Minderheit, SPD in der Koalition)
Tatsächliche Sitzplatzanzahl: CDU/CSU 208, AFD 152, SPD 120, GRN 85, LNK 64, ANT 1 (CDU/CSU Minderheit, SPD in der Koalition)
Maximaler Fehler: +/- 29
Gesamtfehler: 61 (Klasse A)
Keine Prognose auf Wahlkreisebene.
Nova Scotia 2024
Nova Scotia 2024
Model archive: Correction (Thread), Final (Thread), Narrative.
Map archive: Correction, Final, Narrative.
Methodology: This electoral model uses a province-wide proportional swing, similar to our methodology for Federal. The swings are determined by a regularly-updating aggregate of approximately 4 recent polls, in a given time period.
*MOE at +/-5% and +/-15% for each riding. Seats +/-10. 95% confidence.
Over 75% of projected winners would win.
United States 2024
United States 2024
President (popular vote):
Implied popular vote: D +2
Actual popular vote: R +2
Maximum error: +/- 4 (Grade B)
President (electoral college):
Projected total: R 297, D 241 (R Win)
Actual total: R 312, D 226 (R Win)
Maximum error: +/- 15 (Grade A)
Correct winners: 98% of contests, representing 97% of electoral votes (Grade A)
President (battlegrounds):
Projected margins: NH: D +5.9 MN: D +5.7 MI: D +0.3 WI: R +0.3 NV: R +0.9 PA: R +1.2 GA: R +2.0 NC: R +2.2 AZ: R +2.7
Actual margins: MN: D +4.2 NH: D +2.8 WI: R +0.9 MI: R +1.4 PA: R +1.7 GA: R +2.2 NV: R +3.1 NC: R +3.2 AZ: R +5.5
Average error: +/- 1.5 (Grade A)
House (generic ballot):
Projected margin: R +2
Actual margin: R +3
Maximum error: +/- 1 (Grade A)
House (seats):
Projected total: R 219, D 216
Actual total: R 220, D 215
Maximum error: +/- 1 (Grade A)
Correct winners: 98% (Grade A)
Nation-wide uniform swing, with adjustments for incumbency and mid-decade redistricting.
Senate (overall):
Projected total: R 52, D 48 (R Majority)
Actual total: R 53, D 47 (R Majority)
Maximum error: +/- 1 (Grade A)
Correct winners: 97%, representing 33/34 contests (Grade A)
Senate (battlegrounds):
Projected margins:
D | NV (+6.7), AZ (+3.9), PA (+3.2), MI (+2.8), WI (+2.7)
R | OH (+0.3), MT (+3.4), TX (+4.3)
Actual margins:
D | AZ (+2.4), NV (+1.6), WI (+0.8), MI (+0.3)
R | PA (+0.2), OH (+3.6), MT (+7.1), TX (+8.6)
Average error: +/- 3.2 (Grade B)
Governor (overall):
Correct winners: 91%, representing 10/11 contests (Grade A)
Governor (battlegrounds):
Projected margins:
D | NH (+0.9)
Actual margins:
R | NH (+9.3)
Average error: +/- 10.2 (Grade F)
Probability calibration
President overall:
Average seat count: R 274, D 264 ✅
Win probability: R 61%, D 38%, Tie 1% ✅
Senate overall:
Average seat count: R 52, D 48 ✅
Win probability: R 85%, Tie 8%, D 7%✅
House overall:
Average seat count: D 218, R 217 ❌
Win probability: D 54%, R 46% ❌
Statewide contests:
70 (38 president, 22 senate, 10 governor): 100% simulated vs. 100% actual
16 (11 president, 5 senate): 90% simulated vs. 100% actual
7 (1 president, 6 senate): 80% simulated vs. 86% actual
3 (president): 70% simulated vs. 100% actual
2 (1 president, 1 governor): 60% simulated vs. 50% actual
3 (2 president, 1 senate): 50% simulated vs. 50% actual
Saskatchewan 2024
Saskatchewan 2024
Methodology: This electoral model uses a province-wide proportional swing, similar to our methodology for Federal. The swings are determined by a recent poll, adjusted for bias.
*MOE at +/-5% and +/-15% for each riding. Seats +/-10. 95% confidence.
Over 75% of projected winners would win.
Queensland 2024
Queensland 2024
Projected TPP vote: LNP 54% (+7), LAB 46% (-7)
Projected primary vote: GRN 11% (+2), OTH 17% (+2)
Actual TPP vote: LNP 54% (+7), LAB 46% (-7)
Actual primary vote: GRN 10% (+1), OTH 16% (+1)
TPP error: +/- 0 (Grade A)
Maximum crossbench primary error: +/- 1 (Grade A)
Projected seat count: LNP 52, LAB 34, GRN 2, OTH 5 (LNP Majority)
Actual seat count: LNP 52, LAB 36, GRN 1, OTH 4 (LNP Majority)
Maximum error: +/- 2
Total error: 4 (Grade A)
Correct winners: 88% (Grade B).
State-wide uniform swing.
Projected LNP
Mansfield
Pine Rivers
Mackay
Cook
Redcliffe
Keppel
Cairns
Pumicestone
Aspley
Redlands
Mundingburra
Thuringowa
Barron River
Townsville
Caloundra
Hervey Bay
Nicklin
Bundaberg
Currumbin
Coomera
Burleigh
Chatsworth
Glass House
Clayfield
Everton
Whitsunday
Theodore
Moggill
Ninderry
Mermaid Beach
Oodgeroo
Buderim
Southport
Burdekin
Toowoomba North
Gympie
Maroochydore
Kawan
Bonney
Mudgeeraba
Toowoomba South
Burnett
Scenic Rim
Lockyer
Nanango
Southern Downs
Callide
Surfers Paradise
Broadwater
Gregory
Condamine
Warrego
Projected LAB
Gaven
Springwood
Rockhampton
Macalister
Capalaba
Cooper
Ferny Grove
McConnel
Murrumba
Bulimba
Maryborough
Stafford
Mulgrave
Mount Ommaney
Bancroft
Kurwongbah
Greenslopes
Logan
Lytton
Miller
Ipswich West
Toohey
Stretton
Nudgee
Waterford
Ipswich
Morayfield
Jordan
Sandgate
Algester
Bundamba
Gladstone
Woodridge
Inala
Projected Crossbench
GRN:
Maiwar
South Brisbane
OTH:
Hinchinbrook
Noosa
Mirani
Hill
Traeger
New Brunswick 2024
New Brunswick 2024
Projected vote share / Voix prévus : LIB 49%, PC 39%, GRN/VRT 9%, PA/AG 1%, OTH/AUT 2% (LIB +10)
Actual vote share / Voix obtenus : LIB 48%, PC 35%, GRN/VRT 14%, PA/AG 1%, OTH/AUT 2% (LIB +13)
Maximum error / Erreur maximale : +/- 5
Total error / Erreur totale : 10 (Grade/Niveau B)
Projected seat count / Sièges prévus : LIB 27, PC 20, GRN/VRT 2 (LIB Majority/Majoritaire)
Actual seat count / Sièges obtenus : LIB 31, PC 16, GRN/VRT 2 (LIB Majority/Majoritaire)
Maximum error / Erreur maximale : +/- 4
Total error / Erreur totale : 8 (Grade/Niveau B)
Correct winners / gagnantes correctes : 84% (Grade/Niveau B)
Linguistic uniform swing / Changement uniforme linguistique
British Columbia 2024
British Columbia 2024
Methodology: This electoral model started by using a province-wide uniform swing at its inception, but switched to a custom proportional swing after suspension of the BCU campaign. Results from the previous election province-wide are used to calculate the percentage point difference between the current polling aggregate to create a swing value. That swing value is added, subtracted or multiplied on each parties' share of the vote from the last election and transposed onto the new electoral map, to create a projection for each riding.
*MOE at +/-4% and +/-15% for each riding. Seats +/-15. 95% confidence.
Over 75% of projected winners would win.
Australian Capital Territory 2024
Australian Capital Territory 2024
Projected vote share: LAB 36% (-2), LIB 35% (+1), GRN 16% (+2), OTH 13% (-2)
Actual vote share: LAB 34% (-4), LIB 33% (-1), GRN 12% (-2), OTH 20% (+5)
Maximum error: +/- 7
Total error: 15 (Grade D)
Projected seat count: LAB 10, LIB 9, GRN 6, OTH 0 (LAB Minority, GRN in Coalition)
Actual seat count: LAB 10, LIB 9, GRN 4, OTH 2 (LAB Minority, GRN in Coalition)
Maximum error: +/- 2
Total error: 4 (Grade B)
Correct winners: 92% (Grade A)
Territory-wide uniform swing
Northern Territory 2024
Northern Territory 2024
Projected TPP vote: CLP 54% (+7), LAB 46% (-7)
Projected primary vote: OTH 32% (+3)
Actual TPP vote: CLP 57% (+10), LAB 43% (-10)
Actual primary vote: OTH 22% (-7)
TPP error: +/- 3 (Grade C)
Maximum crossbench primary error: +/- 10 (Grade F)
Projected seat count: CLP 15, LAB 9, OTH 1 (CLP Majority)
Actual seat count: CLP 17, LAB 4, OTH 4 (CLP Majority)
Maximum error: +/- 5
Total error: 10 (Grade D)
Correct winners: 64% (Grade D)
Territory-wide uniform swing
United Kingdom 2024
United Kingdom 2024
Projected vote share: LAB 39%, CON 21%, REF 16%, LIB 12%, GRN 7%, SNP 3%, OTH 2% (LAB +18)
Actual vote share: LAB 35%, CON 24%, REF 15%, LIB 13%, GRN 7%, SNP 3%, OTH 4% (LAB +11)
Maximum error: +/- 4
Total error: 11 (Grade B)
Projected seat count: LAB 381, CON 174, LIB 53, SNP 21, SF 7, REF 4, GRN 4, PC 4, IND 2 (LAB Majority)
Actual seat count: LAB 413, CON 129, LIB 73, SNP 9, SF 7, IND 6, REF 5, GRN 4, PC 4 (LAB Majority)
Maximum error: +/- 45
Total error: 114 (Grade B)
Correct winners: 85% (Grade B)
Regional uniform swing. Map here.
Tasmania 2024
Tasmania 2024
Projected vote share: LIB 36% (-13), LAB 26% (-2), GRN 13% (+1), JLN 12% (+12), OTH 14% (+3)
Actual vote share: LIB 37% (-12), LAB 29% (+1), GRN 14% (+2), JLN 7% (+7), OTH 14% (+3)
Maximum error: +/- 5
Total error: 10 (Grade B)
Projected seat count: LIB 12, LAB 9, GRN 6, JLN 5, OTH 3 (LIB Minority)
Actual seat count: LIB 14, LAB 10, GRN 5, JLN 3, OTH 3 (LIB Minority)
Maximum error: +/- 2
Total error: 6 (Grade B)
Correct winners: 89% (Grade B)
State-wide uniform swing
United States 2023
United States 2023
Governor (overall):
Tilt D | KY
Lean R | MS
Likely R | LA
Correct winners: 100%, representing 3/3 contests (Grade A)
Governor (battlegrounds):
Projected margins:
KY: D +3.4 MS: R +5.0
Actual margins:
KY: D +5.1 MS: R +3.2
Average error: +/- 1.7 (Grade A)
Probability calibration
Statewide contests:
1 (governor): 100% simulated vs. 100% actual
1 (governor): 90% simulated vs. 100% actual
1 (governor): 80% simulated vs. 100% actual
New Zealand 2023
New Zealand 2023
Projected vote share: NAT 33% (+7), LAB 28% (-22), GRN 14% (+6), ACT 10% (+2), NZF 8% (+5), MRI 3% (+2), OTH 4% (-1)
Actual vote share: NAT 38% (+12), LAB 27% (-23), GRN 12% (+4), ACT 9% (+1), NZF 6% (+3), MRI 3% (+2), OTH 6% (+1)
Maximum error: +/- 5
Total error: 13 (Grade B)
Projected seat count: NAT 49, LAB 35, GRN 17, ACT 13, NZF 10, MRI 7 (NAT Minority, ACT-NZF in Coalition)
Actual seat count: NAT 49, LAB 34, GRN 15, ACT 11, NZF 8, MRI 6 (NAT Minority, ACT-NZF in Coalition)
Maximum error: +/- 6
Total error: 8 (Grade A)
Correct electorate winners: 88% (Grade B)
Nation-wide proportional swing
Manitoba 2023
Manitoba 2023
Projected vote share: MNDP 46%, PCPM 42%, MLP 11%, GPM 0%, OTH 1% (MNDP +4)
Actual vote share: MNDP 46%, PCPM 42%, MLP 11%, GPM 1%, OTH 1% (MNDP +4)
Maximum error: +/- 1
Total error: 1 (Grade A)
Projected seat count: MNDP 30, PCPM 25, MLP 2 (MNDP Majority)
Actual seat count: MNDP 34, PCPM 22, MLP 1 (MNDP Majority)
Maximum error: +/- 4
Total error: 8 (Grade B)
Correct winners: 89% (Grade B)
Province-wide uniform swing
Alberta 2023
Alberta 2023
Projected vote share: UCP 52%, NDP 44%, OTH 4% (UCP +8)
Actual vote share: UCP 53%, NDP 44%, OTH 3% (UCP +9)
Maximum error: +/- 1
Total error: 2 (Grade A)
Projected seat count: UCP 53, NDP 34 (UCP Majority)
Actual seat count: UCP 49, NDP 38 (UCP Majority)
Maximum error: +/- 4
Total error: 8 (Grade A)
Correct winners: 91% (Grade A)
Province-wide uniform swing
Prince Edward Island 2023
Prince Edward Island 2023
Methodology: This electoral model uses a province-wide proportional swing, similar to our methodology for Federal. The final update of this model aggregated the last 3 polls (excluding Forum) before election day, adjusted for bias. Previous iterations took the latest quarterly poll, adjusted for bias.
*MOE at +/-10%, +/-20% for each riding. Seats +/-5. 95% confidence.
Over 65% of projected winners would win.
New South Wales 2023
New South Wales 2023
Projected TPP vote: LAB 53% (+5), LNP 47% (-5)
Projected primary vote: GRN 10% (=), OTH 17% (+1)
Actual TPP vote: LAB 54% (+6), LNP 46% (-6)
Actual primary vote: GRN 10% (=), OTH 18% (+2)
TPP error: +/- 1 (Grade A)
Maximum crossbench primary error: +/- 1 (Grade A)
Projected seat count: LAB 43, LNP 41, GRN 3, OTH 6 (LAB Minority)
Actual seat count: LAB 45, LNP 36, GRN 3, OTH 9 (LAB Minority)
Maximum error: +/- 5
Total error: 10 (Grade B)
Correct winners: 88% (Grade B).
State-wide uniform swing.
Projected LAB
Tweed
Goulburn
Penrith
Upper Hunter
East Hills
Kogarah
Leppington
Heathcote
Lismore
Coogee
Londonderry
Bega
Strathfield
The Entrance
Port Stephens
Gosford
Maroubra
Prospect
Granville
Rockdale
Swansea
Wyong
Charlestown
Blue Mountains
Auburn
Maitland
Macquarie Fields
Canterbury
Heffron
Campbelltown
Blacktown
Fairfield
Liverpool
Newcastle
Keira
Shellharbour
Mount Druitt
Cabramatta
Cessnock
Bankstown
Summer Hill
Wollongong
Wallsend
Projected LNP
Winston Hills
Holsworthy
Wollondilly
Riverstone
Parramatta
Oatley
Camden
Ryde
Myall Lakes
Badgerys Creek
South Coast
Coffs Harbour
North Shore
Epping
Monaro
Kiama
Terrigal
Drummoyne
Miranda
Clarence
Manly
Lane Cove
Oxley
Albury
Hawkesbury
Hornsby
Bathurst
Dubbo
Wahroonga
Cronulla
Port Macquarie
Vaucluse
Willoughby
Wakehurst
Pittwater
Castle Hill
Kellyville
Davidson
Cootamundra
Tamworth
Northern Tablelands
Projected Crossbench
GRN:
Ballina
Balmain
Newtown
OTH:
Murray
Barwon
Sydney
Orange
Wagga Wagga
Lake Macquarie
Victoria 2022
Victoria 2022
Projected TPP vote: LAB 54% (-3), LNP 46% (+3)
Projected primary vote: GRN 11% (=), OTH 16% (+5)
Actual TPP vote: LAB 55% (-2), LNP 45% (+2)
Actual primary vote: GRN 11% (=), OTH 17% (+6)
TPP error: +/- 1 (Grade A)
Maximum crossbench primary error: +/- 1 (Grade A)
Projected seat count: LAB 50, LNP 33, GRN 3, OTH 2 (LAB Majority)
Actual seat count: LAB 56, LNP 28, GRN 4, OTH 0 (LAB Majority)
Maximum error: +/- 6
Total error: 14 (Grade B)
Correct winners: 86% (Grade B).
State-wide uniform swing.
Projected LAB
Northcote
Box Hill
Ringwood
Morwell
Melton
Richmond
Monbulk
Eltham
Werribee
Cranbourne
Eureka
Frankston
Geelong
Narre Warren South
Narre Warren North
Wendouree
Bellarine
Bentleigh
Carrum
Bendigo East
Ivanhoe
Niddrie
Point Cook
Albert Park
Macedon
Mordialloc
Sunbury
Clarinda
Mulgrave
Essendon
Oakleigh
Bundoora
Yan Yean
Tarneit
Sydenham
Bendigo West
Lara
Williamstown
Kalkallo
Preston
St Albans
Greenvale
Pascoe Vale
Dandenong
Laverton
Mill Park
Broadmeadows
Kororoit
Thomastown
Footscray
Projected LNP
South Barwon
Ripon
Pakenham
Ashwood
Nepean
Hawthorn
Hastings
Caulfield
Sandringham
Brighton
Bayswater
Bass
Glen Waverley
Croydon
Eildon
Berwick
Evelyn
Polwarth
Benambra
South-West Coast
Warrandyte
Kew
Mornington
Rowville
Bulleen
Malvern
Narracan
Ovens Valley
Gippsland South
Euroa
Gippsland East
Lowan
Murray Plains
Projected Crossbench
GRN:
Melbourne
Brunswick
Prahran
OTH:
Mildura
Shepparton
United States 2022
United States 2022
House (generic ballot):
Projected margin: R +2
Actual margin: R +3
Maximum error: +/- 1 (Grade A)
House (seats):
Projected total: R 227, D 208
Actual total: R 222, D 213
Maximum error: +/- 5 (Grade A)
Correct winners: 95% (Grade A)
Nation-wide uniform swing applied on Cook PVI.
Senate (overall):
Projected total: D 50, R 50 (D Majority)
Actual total: D 51, R 49 (D Majority)
Maximum error: +/- 1 (Grade A)
Correct winners: 97%, representing 34/35 contests (Grade A)
Senate (battlegrounds):
Projected margins:
D | NH (+2.5), AZ (+1.5), PA (+1.4), GA (+0.4)
R | NV (+1.4), NC (+3.1), WI (+4.4)
Actual margins:
D | NH (+9.2), PA (+4.9), AZ (+4.9), GA Runoff (+2.4), NV (+0.8)
R | WI (+1.0), NC (+3.2)
Average error: +/- 3.0 (Grade B)
Governor (overall):
Correct winners: 94%, representing 34/36 contests (Grade A)
Governor (battlegrounds):
Projected margins:
D | OR (+3.7), KS (+5.0)
R | WI (+0.4), NV (+1.3), AZ (+1.6)
Actual margins:
D | AZ (+0.7), KS (+2.2), WI (+3.4), OR (+3.4)
R | NV (+1.5)
Average error: +/- 1.9 (Grade A)
Probability calibration
Senate overall:
Average seat count: D 50, R 50 ✅
Win probability: D 55%, R 45% ✅
House overall:
Average seat count: R 230, D 205 ✅
Win probability: R 93%, D 7% ✅
Statewide contests:
47 (25 senate, 22 governor): 100% simulated vs. 100% actual
13 (3 senate, 10 governor): 90% simulated vs. 100% actual
4 (3 senate, 1 governor): 80% simulated vs. 100% actual
5 (3 senate, 2 governor): 70% simulated vs. 60% actual
2 (1 senate, 1 governor): 50% simulated vs. 50% actual
Brasil 2022
Brasil 2022
Votos projetados: Da Silva 50%, Bolsonaro 50% (EMPATE)
Votos obtidos: Da Silva 51%, Bolsonaro 49% (Da Silva +2)
Erro máximo: +/- 1 (Grade A)
Québec 2022
Québec 2022
Voix prévus : CAQ 39%, PLQ 17%, PCQ 16%, PQ 14%, QS 13%, PVQ 1%, AUT 0% (CAQ +24)
Voix obtenus : CAQ 41%, QS 15%, PQ 15%, PLQ 14%, PCQ 13%, PVQ 1%, AUT 1% (CAQ +26)
Erreur maximale : +/- 3
Erreur totale : 12 (Niveau B)
Sièges prévus : CAQ 88, PLQ 21, PQ 8, QS 8 (CAQ majoritaire)
Sièges obtenus : CAQ 90, PLQ 21, QS 11, PQ 3 (CAQ majoritaire)
Erreur maximale : +/- 5
Erreur totale : 10 (Niveau A)
Gagnantes correctes: 90 % (Niveau B)
Changement uniforme à l'echelle nationale
Ontario 2022
Ontario 2022
Methodology: This electoral model uses a province-wide proportional swing, similar to our methodology for Federal. The swings are determined by a regularly-updating aggregate of approximately 4 recent polls, in a given time period.
*MOE at +/-4% and +/-15% for each riding. Seats +/-15. 95% confidence.
Over 75% of projected winners would win.
Australia 2022
Australia 2022
Methodology: This is a regional proportional swing election model. Results from the previous election in each region are used to calculate the percentage difference between the current polling aggregate, and then added (or subtracted) from 1 to create a regional swing value. That regional swing value is multiplied to each parties' votes from the last election and transposed onto the new electoral map, to create a projection for each riding.
*MOE at +/-3%, +/-6% for regionals and +/-10% for each riding. Seats +/-20. 95% confidence.
Over 85% of projected winners would win.
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