National popular vote: LPC 45% [42-48], CPC 37% [34-40], BQC 7% [4-10], NDP 7% [4-10], GPC 2% [0-4], PPC 1% [0-2], OTH 1% [0-2]

Left-wing/Right-wing balance: 54% to 46% (left majority)

House composition: Liberal (LPC), Majority Government

Liberal (LPC) seats: 206 [186-226]

Conservative (CPC) seats: 105 [85-125]

Bloc Quebecois (BQC) seats: 23 [3-43]

New Democratic (NDP) seats: 7 [0-14]

Green (GPC) seats: 2 [0-4]

People's Party (PPC) seats: 0 [0-1]

Other (OTH) seats: 0 [0-1]

Left-wing/Right-wing balance: 215 to 128 (left majority)

Methodology: This is a regional proportional swing election model. Results from the previous election in each region are used to calculate the percentage difference between the current polling aggregate, and then added (or subtracted) from 1 to create a regional swing value. That regional swing value is multiplied to each parties' votes from the last election and transposed onto the new electoral map, to create a projection for each riding.

*MOE at +/-3%, +/-6% for regionals and +/-10% for each riding. Seats +/-20. 95% confidence. 

Over 85% of projected winners would win.

Updated monthly. Last update: 1 May 2026, based on 5 polls.