Working Papers
Working Papers
Axelrod, Matias. "In the 'Right' Place at the Right Time: Prison Labor Compensation and Recidivism in Arizona" [Job Market Paper]
"Despite their ubiquity in prisons across the United States, relatively little is known about forced prison labor programs and their impacts on post-release outcomes. Program evaluation in this context is empirically challenging due to lack of accessible data, lack of clear variation over time, and the familiar self-selection issues that frequently complicate causal inference using observational data. I address these challenges using a novel administrative dataset from the Arizona Department of Corrections, Rehabilitation and Reentry (ADCRR) by exploiting cross-prison variation over time in the availability of higher-paying correctional industry (CI) work assignments to see how varying levels of mandatory savings from CI impact recidivism rates. I instrument observed levels of mandatory savings with the number of weeks remaining in their incarceration spell and find significant short-term reductions in the probability of recidivating, which quickly dissipate after 3 months. On average, a $1,000 increase in mandatory savings decreases the probability of reincarceration within 3 months by 1.01 (↓9.7%) and 1.47 (↓18.4%) percentage points, for men and women respectively. The dynamics of these effects and suggestive evidence on reducing new drug and property felonies highlight short-term poverty alleviation as a likely mechanism."
Axelrod, Matias. "How Do Inmates 'Do Time'? Recidivism Impacts of within-Prison Programs" SSRN Link
" I evaluate the impacts of several programs offered to inmates held at various prison facilities in the Arizona Department of Corrections, Rehabilitation, and Reentry (ADCRR) through a novel application of a quasi-experimental shift-share IV (SSIV) research design, which leverages plausibly exogenous variation across facilities over time in how exposed inmates were to three different programs. I find that a cognitive-behavioral therapy program, Changing Offender Behavior (COB), reduced one-year reincarceration rates by 3.4 percentage points (↓14%) and that these impacts did not dissipate by the third year. I also find suggestive evidence that this program reduced new violent felonies within two years. Substance-use disorder treatment reduced reincarceration rates by 3.7 percentage points (↓15%) within the first year but dissipated thereafter. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that most of the COB program's recidivism effects were due to fewer new felonies, while the substance-use disorder treatment’s shorter-term effects were entirely due to fewer technical violations. "
Works in Progress
Axelrod, Matias; Kucera, Alex “On the Cost-Effectiveness of Illicit Drug Enforcement”
Using novel datasets from wastewater treatment facilities in metropolitan areas, we investigate the “down-stream” effects that DEA and local law enforcement illicit drug seizures have on end-user consumption.