Programme

3rd Durham-Bristol Banking Policy Forum

"Global Banking in an Era of Geopolitical Risks"

Thursday, 02 October 2025

Durham University Business School

Programme

8.30 - 9.00

Coffee/Tea and Registration

9.00 - 9.15

Opening Address by Kieran Fernandes, Dean of Durham University Business School

Introduction to the Forum by Dennis Philip, Durham University Business School and Klaus Schaeck, University of Bristol Business School

Research Paper Session 1

Chair: Diwen Gao (University of Bristol Business School)

9.15 - 10.00

“Violent Conflict and Cross-Border Lending” by Ralph De Haas (EBRD), Mikhail Mamonov (TBS Business School), Alexander Popov (ECB), and Iliriana Shala (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Discussant: Tran Huynh (Durham University Business School)

10.00 - 10.45

“Geopolitics Meets Monetary Policy: Decoding Their Impact on Cross-Border Bank Lending” by Swapan-Kumar Pradhan (BIS), Viktors Stebunovs (Federal Reserve Board), Előd Takáts (BIS), and Judit Temesvary (Federal Reserve Board)

Discussant: Artur Doshchyn (University of Bristol Business School)

10.45 - 11.15

Coffee Break

11.15 - 12.15

Industry Panel: “How do banks ride the geopolitical storm?”

Moderator: Joanna Berry, Durham University Business School

Derek Leatherdale, Senior Geopolitical Risk Advisor, Sibylline Ltd

Andrew Marshall, CFO, Atom Bank

Alex Spooner, Manager, Deloitte

Elizabeth Stephens, Geopolitical Risk Advisory

12.15 - 13.15

Lunch Break

Research Paper Session 2 (organised by IBRN)

Chair: Fergal McCann (Central Bank of Ireland)

13.15 - 14.00

“Firm Uncertainty and Households: Spending, Savings, and Risks” by Ivan Alfaro (BI Norwegian Business School) and Honsook Park (University of Melbourne)

Discussant: Robert Goodhead (Central Bank of Ireland)

14.00 - 14.45

“Geopolitical Risk: When it Matters, Where it Matters. Evidence from International Portfolio Allocations” by Nathan Converse (Federal Reserve Board) and Enrico Mallucci (Central Bank of Ireland)

Discussant: Alexia Ventula Veghazy (ECB)

14.45 - 15.15

Coffee Break

15.15 - 16.15

Policy Panel

Moderator: Farah Khalique (Financial Times)

Iikka Korhonen, Director, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies

Simona Malovana, Executive Director, Czech National Bank

Bogdan Zawadewicz, Director, Head of Geopolitical Risk Analysis, Polish Development Bank

16.15 - 16.30

Closing Remarks and Refreshments

Xian Gu and Francesco Vallascas (Durham University Business School)