I am an Assistant Professor at the New Economic School, and hold a Ph.D. from UC Davis in Economics. Lately, I have become worried that academic economics is not fundamentally an enterprise engaged in seeking truth, but rather about sneaking false research through peer review to earn rents on undergraduate tuition dollars. I am a member of the Replication Network, committed to making replication and robustness a norm in academia, and I also work closely with the Institute for Replication. I am a big fan of academic prediction markets, which are, in my view, about seeking truth, and founded Insight Prediction.
E-mail: dolcampb at gmail dot com ; Twitter: @TradeandMoney ; Blog: http://douglaslcampbell.blogspot.ru/
Research Interests: International Trade, Open-Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Growth and Development, Economic History, Applied Micro, Prediction Markets
Working Papers:
Robust or Bust? Robustness Reproducibility of the American Economic Review, with Abel Brodeur, Douglas Campbell, Anna Dreber, Magnus Johannesson, Joseph Kopecky, Lester Lusher, and Nikita Tsoy (2024).
Robustness Report: Commercial Imperialism? Political Influence and Trade during the Cold War (2023)
Robustness Report: The Effect of Language on Economic Behavior: Evidence from Savings Rates, Health Behaviors, and Retirement Assets (2023), code, data (here, here, and here)
Robustness Report: Going to a Better School: Effects and Behavioral Responses (2023)
Robustness Report: Innovation and Institutional Ownership (2023)
Robustness Report: Technological Change and the Consequences of Job Loss (2023)
Robustness Report: Vulnerability and Clientelism (2023)
Robustness Report: Convex Supply Curves (2023)
Robustness Report: Retail Pharmacies and Drug Diversion during the Opioid Epidemic (2023)
Robustness Report: Partisanship and Fiscal Policy (2023)
Robustness Report: Persuastion Through Slanted Language (2023)
Robustness Report: Interaction, Stereotypes, and Performance: Evidence from South Africa (2023)
Mass Reproducibility and Replicability: A New Hope (2024) with Abel Brodeur et al. (See long author list.)
History, Culture, and Trade: A Dynamic Gravity Approach. August 2010.
Published Research:
Breaking Badly: The Currency Union Effect on Trade with Aleksandr Chentsov Dec. 2022, June 2017 version. Forthcoming, Journal of International Money and Finance. Additional Appendix: Previous Referee Reports
Trade Induced Technological Change: Did Chinese Competition Increase Innovation in Europe? with Karsten Mau, July, 2021, Review of Economic Studies.
Relative Prices, Hysteresis, and the Decline of American Manufacturing, October, 2020, European Economic Review. Published ungated version. Official Link.
TAs Like Me: Racial Interactions between Graduate Teaching Assistants and Undergraduates, with Lester Lusher and Scott Carrell. Journal of Public Economics. Mar., 2018
The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks on Manufacturing Workers: An Autopsy from the MORG with Lester Lusher, 2019, Journal of International Money and Finance.
Measurement Matters: Productivity-Adjusted Weighted Average Relative Price Indices Journal of International Money and Finance, 2016 vol. 61(C), pages 45-81.
The Diffusion of Development: Along Genetic or Geographic Lines? 2015, Journal of International Development. (Gated version.) With Ju Hyun Pyun
Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade: Solving the Glick and Rose Puzzle. World Economy, 2013, 36: 1278-1293.
Full Research Coverage w/ Data and Media Links:
Trade Induced Technological Change: Did Chinese Competition Increase Innovation in Europe? with Karsten Mau, July, 2021, Review of Economic Studies. Nov. 2019 version. Response to referee report. Additional response to BDvR-20's referee report. Data and code responding to an old referee report and more.
Relative Prices, Hysteresis, and the Decline of American Manufacturing, Forthcoming, European Economic Review. Published version. (previously R&R, JIE and R&R at AEJ: Applied). Appendix: Response to Previous Referees Reports. Previous versions: Sept., 2015 ; July, 2015 ; Dec., 2014 ; April, 2014 Version. JMP version from 2013. Additional Appendix (old).
Media: VoxEU version (link to be fixed by VoxEU, here's a word version). The Economist (Ryan Avent). Equitablog. Naked Capitalism. Guest post for Econbrowser, "The Cause of Secular Stagnation? Relative Prices, Trade, and the People’s Republic of China”. Paper also cited again in The Economist.
Awards: This paper won the Wim Meeusen Prize, awarded annually to the best paper presented at the "Economics of Global Interactions" conference in Bari, Italy.
Data: MFA/ATC Crosswalk (bridge to HS crosswalk, available here), IO NAICs to NAICs Crosswalk
TAs Like Me: Racial Interactions between Graduate Teaching Assistants and Undergraduates, with Lester Lusher and Scott Carrell. Journal of Public Economics. Mar., 2018 version. Ungated NBER Working Paper version.
Media: Slate. Inside Higher-Ed. Washington Examiner. Diversity Inc. Daily Illini.
The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks on Manufacturing Workers: An Autopsy from the MORG with Lester Lusher, Forthcoming, Journal of International Money and Finance. (This is narrower version of "Trade Shocks, Taxes, and Inequality".) Bullet Point Highlights.
Media: Econbrowser Guest Contribution.
A previous version was circulated as: Trade Shocks, Taxes, and Inequality with Lester Lusher, Sept.,
2016. May 2016 version.
Media: Short VoxEU version. Blogs: Economist's View. Naked Keynesianism. Tax Justice Network.
Data: Historical Top Marginal Tax Rates Database, In Excel form.
New Estimates of Offshoring: Intermediate Imports.dta (ASM NAICS, 1989-2010, in Stata v14), Bilateral Version.dta (ASM NAICS X ASM NAICS, Stata 14), Raw Data. SIC version (1972-2003). Bilateral SIC Version. Intermediate Input Data Appendix. Read Me.
CPS MORG Data: (email me -- large file).
ASM Data: Here.
Crosswalk Data: Master Crosswalk File (all 23 crosswalks for this project).
Measurement Matters: Productivity-Adjusted Weighted Average Relative Price Indices Journal of International Money and Finance, 2016 vol. 61(C), pages 45-81. (Online published version, accessible until Feb. 6, 2015). Bullet point highlights. Previous version, circulated as: "Through the Looking Glass: A WARPed View of Real Exchange Rate History" from August 2015. Appendix: Old Referee Reports. Version from November, 2014. Even older Version.
Media: VoxEU synopsis. Blog post by Ryan Avent in The Economist. Equitablog. Naked Capitalism.
Data: WAR RER Indices, v2.1a (154 countries, using PWT v8.1, July 2015; Excel format v2.1a). v2.1a Description. .do file for computing trade weights from IMF DOTS (DOTS data).
RER Indices, v2.0 (157 countries, using PWT v8.1, July 2015). v2.0 Description.
RER Indices, v1.0 (based on PWT v8.0, 2014) (stata 11 format, excel 2010 format).
Comments on Related Research:Comment on Synthetic International Indexed Unit of Account.
Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade: Solving the Glick and Rose Puzzle. World Economy, 36: 1278-1293, 2013.
The line: The early large time series estimates of currency unions on trade were driven by omitted variables including warfare and communist takeovers, and are not robust to controlling for dynamics as per my 'Dynamic Gravity Theory' below. Countries considering joining the Euro should not expect any large impact on trade. Citation in Bibtex. Previous, ungated draft, Dec. 2012. Slides here. Short version. Earlier Draft from Feb., 2012. (Note: Repec ranks World Economy 71st by citations in the past 10 years.)
Media: Blogged at Economic Logic here.
Data: Code here and data here.
The Diffusion of Development: Along Genetic or Geographic Lines? 2015, Journal of International Development. (Gated version.) With Ju Hyun Pyun
The line: Climatic distance to the US predicts development, genetic distance does not. Version from August, 2014. 2013 Version. Web Appendix. Under Review. Previous Version. Dec., 2011.
Media: Andrew Gelman's blog. (listed as a "Must-Read" by Brad DeLong at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth). Blog post: Ancestry and Development: The 'Power Pose' of Economics?
Data: Data here and code here (previous code).
Top Blog Posts:
What's Wrong with the US Economy? A Theory in one Blog Post March, 2017
Robots and Inequality: A Skeptic's Take March, 2017
Is US Manufacturing Really Great Again? May, 2017
A Quick Theory of the Industrial Revolution April, 2017
A Quick Argument why not to Raise Interest Rates March, 2017
The Saga of Currency Unions and Trade March, 2017
Ben Bernanke, in Denial? "When Growth is Not Enough" July, 2017
Janet Yellen's Tenure, in Retrospect: Has the Economy Really Recovered? December, 2017
Reminder: Most Published Research is Probably Wrong! February, 2018
On the Uses (and Abuses) of Economath: The Malthusian Models February, 2018
Are Negative Nominal Interest Rates Expansionary? A Review of Eggertsson et al. (2017) October, 2018
Ranking Economic Journals by Speed, Updated February, 2019
How to Respond to the Next Recession: Central Bank Fiscal Support February, 2020
Debate over Covid Fatality April, 2020
Non-Peer Reviewed Articles:
Президентские ставки: выборы 2020 года в США и риски для инвесторов, РБК, July 5th, 2020
Guest Contribution: The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks on Manufacturing Workers: An Autopsy from the MORG, Econbrowser, January 6, 2017.
Is the AER Replicable? And is it Robust? Evidence from a Class Project, The Replication Network, December 27th, 2016.
Driver's of Inequality: Trade Shocks vs. Top Marginal Tax Rates, VoxEU, Sep. 8, 2016.
A Replication in Economics: Does "Genetic Distance" to the US Predict Development?, Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science (Andrew Gelman's Blog), Dec. 19th, 2015.
Правда ли, что чем южнее регионы и страны, тем они беднее и неблагополучнее? June 25th, 2015. For the webpage "The Question", I answer "Is it true that southern regions and countries are poor and undeveloped? (warning: it's in Russian/порусский).
The Cause of Secular Stagnation? Relative Prices, Trade, and the People’s Republic of China. Econbrowser Guest post, August 14th, 2014.
Output vs. Trade Costs in the Great Depression and Today, 9/2009 written with David Jacks, Chris Meissner, and Dennis Novy on the dramatic decline in trade during the Great Recession for VoxEU. VoxEU profile here.
Data Links
Trade/Manufacturing Data
Tips for Writing Academic Papers
Alexander Hamilton Links
Biography by Ron Chernow (recommended)
Download Hamilton's 1791 Report on Manufactures submitted to the House of Representatives.
Author of 51 of the Federalist Papers
Note: I was a fan long before the musical, but here is Lin Manuel Miranda performing Hamilton at the White House