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Two-phase recovery patterns
Two-phase recovery patterns
We are interested in the recovery patterns of coral reefs within Australia's iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in the years proceeding a major disturbance event that reduces a reef to very low coral cover. Such disturbance events are likely to occur more frequently in the future due to climate change, therefore understanding recovery in this low cover regime provides insight into the coral forecasts as disturbance frequency and severity increase. In our work, we identified evidence of two-phase recovery patterns in the GBR, that is, periods of slower recovery immediately following a disturbance event. Exactly what drives these phenomena is still an open problem, but it is likely to be a combination of biological, ecological and environmental factors. Quantification of the expected slow recovery period could enable managers to respond more efficiently with interventions.
Publications
Publications
DJ Warne, K Crossman, GEM Heron, JA Sharp, W Jin, P P-Y Wu, MJ Simpson, K Mengersen, J-C Ortiz. (2025) Mathematical modelling and uncertainty quantification for analysis of biphasic coral reef recovery patterns. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (to appear) arXiv.org
RJ Murphy, OJ Maclaren, AR Calabrese, PB Thomas, DJ Warne, ED Williams, MJ Simpson. (2022) Computationally efficient framework for diagnosing, understanding, and predicting biphasic population growth. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 19:20220560 DOI bioRxiv.org
DJ Warne, KA Crossman, W Jin, K Mengersen, K Osborne, MJ Simpson, AA Thompson, P Wu, J‐C Ortiz. (2021) Identification of two‐phase recovery for interpretation of coral reef monitoring data. Journal of Applied Ecology, 59:153-164 DOI
Model selection and uncertainty quantification with reef monitoring data
Model selection and uncertainty quantification with reef monitoring data
A variety of models can reasonably replicate recovery patterns in coral reefs. That is, they all fit the data well. Rather than simply considering a trade-off between fitness and complexity, it is possible to consider the choice of model base how precise parameter estimates can practically be obtained using coral cover data.
Publications
Publications
K Cure, DR Barneche, M Depczynski, R Fisher, DJ Warne, JM McGree, J Underwood, F Weisenberger, E Evans-Illidge, B Ford, D Oades, A Howard, P McCarthy, D Pyke, Z Edgar, R Maher, T Sampi, K Dougal, Bardi Jawi Traditional Owners . (2024) Incorporating uncertainty in Indigenous sea Country monitoring with Bayesian statistics: towards more informed decision-making. Ambio 53:746–763 DOI arXiv.org
MJ Simpson, AP Browning, DJ Warne, OJ Maclaren, RE Baker. (2022) Parameter identifiability and model selection for sigmoid population growth models. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 535:110998 DOI bioRxiv.org
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