Research

Working Papers:

Ethnic Remoteness Reduces the Peace Dividend from Trade Access  (joint with Klaus Desmet and Joseph Gomes; NBER Working Paper #30678, CEPR Discussion Paper #17895, November 2024) [draft available] 

(Revise and Resubmit at Review of Economics and Statistics)

This paper shows that ethnically remote locations do not reap the full peace dividend from increased market access. Exploiting the staggered implementation of the U.S.-initiated Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and using high-resolution data on ethnic composition and violent conflict for sub-Saharan Africa, our analysis finds that in the wake of improved trade access conflict declines less in locations that are ethnically remote from the rest of the country. We hypothesize that ethnic remoteness acts as a barrier that hampers participation in the global economy. Consistent with this, satellite-based luminosity data show that income gains from improved trade access are smaller in ethnically remote locations, and survey data indicate that ethnically more distant individuals do not benefit from the same positive income shocks when exposed to increased market access. These results underscore the importance of ethnic barriers when analyzing which locations and groups might be left behind by globalization. 

Presented at: Université Catholique de Louvain (IRES Lunch Seminar), Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Public Economics & Policy Seminar at University of Lausanne, International Conference on Development Economics (ICDE) 2024, KIEL-CEPR African Economic Development Conference, II Spanish Workshop in Development Economics, Universidad de Malaga, ENS de Lyon, Universidad de Navarra

Beggar Thy Neighbor? Illicit Gold Trade and Conflict in the African Great Lakes Region  (joint with Jing-Rong Zeng) [draft available upon to request]

Media Coverage: Monitor (Uganda)

We study how an expansion in downstream access to international commodity markets affects armed conflict and local economic activity along resource supply chains. The opening of Uganda's first industrial gold refinery in 2016 created a new refining and export channel through which informally traded gold from the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could reach international markets. Combining the timing of the refinery opening with pre-existing differences in exposure to gold production and predicted transport corridors over 2011--2020, we find that battle incidence increases by 5.2 percentage points along exposed corridors, with increases at both gold-producing and pure transit locations. Conflict also involves more armed actors and becomes less concentrated across non-state armed groups. In contrast, we find no systematic increase in forest loss or nighttime lights in areas with artisanal gold-mining potential, our proxies for extractive activity and local income. These results suggest that improved downstream market access can propagate upstream through a resource supply chain, intensifying contestation over resource rents at both production and transit locations without corresponding detectable increases in local economic activity.

Economics or Culture? Social Identification in Sub-Saharan Africa [draft available upon to request]

This paper examines how an individual’s ethnic group’s economic status and its cultural distance from the nation affect their social identification in Sub-Saharan Africa. I use the agricultural value of each ethnic group’s homeland as a proxy for economic status and measure cultural distance based on the linguistic distance of each ethnic group within its country. Focusing on ethnic versus national identification, I find that as the economic status of ethnically distant groups improves, individuals in these groups tend to identify more strongly with their ethnic group. Conversely, individuals from less ethnically distant groups increasingly identify with the nation as their group’s economic status rises. Additionally, the findings reveal that more superficial linguistic cleavages have a stronger impact on social identification than deeper linguistic differences, suggesting that people respond more strongly to easily recognized traits. These patterns highlight the potential for economic shifts to polarize identities, emphasizing the interconnected roles of economic conditions and cultural factors in shaping group affiliations.

Presented at: Université Catholique de Louvain (IRES Lunch Seminar)

Work in Progress:

Mobile Internet, Local Production, and Export Growth (joint with Klaus Desmet , Sonia Giurumescu and Joseph Gomes)