"Motorways and Railroads to Trust" with George Tsiachtsiras and Anastasia Litina, Published at the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (3* ABS List 2021, Scopus Q1), Volume 234, 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106972
Abstract: This paper explores the interplay between the extent of transportation infrastructure and various aspects of trust (interpersonal and political trust) in Europe. We test our hypothesis by exploiting cross regional variation during the period 2002-2019. We focus on two measures of infrastructure, i.e., the length of railroads and railways in European regions. Interpersonal and political trust variables are derived from individual level data available in nine consecutive rounds of the European Social Survey. We document that individuals who live in regions with extended infrastructure network manifest higher trust both in people and political institutions. To mitigate endogeneity concerns, we extend our analysis to a sample of international and inter-regional immigrants. We further adopt an IV approach, where we use as an instrument the pre-existing Roman roads networks. The results from all three specifications are aligned to those of the benchmark analysis. We explore access to differential levels of trust as one of the underlying mechanisms behind our results. Relying on expanding literature we hypothesize that the effect of infrastructure on trust operates directly via the degree of exposure to new people and ideas, as well as indirectly, via the effect of infrastructure on the structure of the economy.
"Past Exposure to Macroeconomic Shocks and Populist Attitudes in Europe" with Anastasia Litina, Published at the Journal of Comparative Economics (3* ABS List 2021, Scopus Q1), Volume 51, Issue 3, Pages 989-1010, 10.1016/j.jce.2023.04.002
Abstract: This paper explores the interplay between past exposure to macroeconomic shocks and populist attitudes. We document that individuals who experienced a macroeconomic shock during their impressionable years (between 18 and 25 years of age), are currently more prone to voting for populist parties, and manifest lower trust both in national and European Union institutions. We use data for EU countries from the European Social Survey (ESS) to construct the differential individual exposure to macroeconomic shocks during impressionable years. Our findings suggest that it is not only current exposure to shocks that matters (see e.g., Guiso et al. (2020)) but also past exposure to economic recessions, which has a persistent positive effect on the rise of populism. Interestingly, the interplay between the two, i.e., past and current exposure to economic shocks, has a mitigating effect on the rise of populism. Individuals who were exposed to economic shocks in the past are less likely to manifest populist attitudes when faced with a current crisis, as suggested by the experience-based learning literature.
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"Split Personalities? Behavioral Effects of Temperature on Financial Decision-Making" with Christos Makridis and Anastasia Litina, Published at the Kyklos (3* ABS List 2021, Scopus Q2), Volume 77, Issue 3, Pages 664-689, 10.1111/kykl.12382
Abstract: Exploiting year-to-year variation in the exposure to different temperatures across European countries for over a decade, we identify the causal effect of climate change and more specifically of temperature variations on both the intensive and extensive margin of financial investments, ranging from bonds to stocks, and the moderating role of optimism. Our primary result is that hotter temperatures reduce optimists' appetite for risk by depressing their demand for stocks and boosting their demand for safe assets, such as bonds. However, we find no such effects for pessimists. Given a large body of empirical literature from psychology that has documented differences between optimists and pessimists, especially with regards to their responsiveness to external stimuli, these results show how different types of investors may respond to external stimuli. In this sense, the fluctuations that are observed in stock returns reflects a change in not only underlying fundamentals, but also the composition of investors. We show that these results are driven by optimism as the personality characteristic, rather than general interests or mental well-being. Furthermore, we find that attitudes about risk are a major determinant of the differences in optimism that we observe in the cross-section.
“Religion and COVID-19” with Anastasia Litina and Sofia Tsitou, Forthcoming at the Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics, Springer Nature, edited by Prof. Klaus Zimmermann.
Abstract: This chapter provides an overview of the literature that associates religiosity and religious affiliation with the prevalence and the severity of COVID-19. It further presents an empirical overview of the interplay between religious denomination, the degree of religiosity, and the spread of COVID-19 as proxied by the excess mortality rate in European regions. The scope of the empirical part is to test various hypotheses raised in the broader literature into a common set-up that comprises European regions, combining subnational European regional data for religious denomination and religiosity from the Integrated Values Survey (IVS) and data on regional excess mortality in the years that the spread of COVID-19 took place, derived from Eurostat. The analysis suggests that in European regions where individuals manifest a higher degree of religiosity, the COVID-19 mortality rates are conditionally higher. Interestingly, it is found that in Protestant and Catholic regions, the correlation between religiosity and COVID-19 mortality rates is strong. This result is particularly strong for the sample of Catholics and Protestants, whereas for the other denominations the correlation is rather weak. Thus, it can be conferred that religious denomination and the degree of religiosity, play an important role in the spread of the virus. A hypothesized mechanism is that in regions with high degree of religiosity, the social interactions are more intense, particularly those driven by higher religious attendance. The findings hint to the fact that these aspects should be embedded in policies with the aim to maximize their effectiveness for future disease outbreaks.
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"Population Ageing and the Rise of Populism in Europe" with Andreas Irmen and Anastasia Litina, Under Review, Journal of Population Economics.
Abstract: This paper identifies population aging as an important driver of populism using multilevel regression analysis on individuals from European countries between 2002 and 2019. Unlike individual aging, we focus on population-level demographic change measured by the old-age dependency ratio (OADR), i.e., the ratio of people aged 65 and over to those of working age. which captures the structural balance between older and economically active populations. Using data from nine rounds of the European Social Survey, we examine the relationship between population aging and populist attitudes, captured through voting for populist parties, political trust, and immigration attitudes. Our findings suggest that population aging is associated with declining electoral turnout, higher support for populist parties, lower trust in political institutions, and increased anti-immigrant sentiment. These effects appear across both younger and older voters, indicating that aging societies influence political preferences beyond individual aging. They may operate through mechanisms such as economic insecurity, cultural backlash, or shifts in collective societal priorities.
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“Scarred by Nature: How Early Exposure to Natural Disasters Shapes Risk Attitudes” with Andreas Sintos, Under Review, World Development.
Abstract: Can early-life experiences shape long-term risk attitudes? This paper examines the long-term impact of exposure to natural disasters during early adulthood on individual risk attitudes. Using harmonized survey data linked to disaster records, we find that individuals exposed to natural disasters between the ages of 18 and 25 exhibit significantly greater risk aversion later in life. This effect is robust in alternative specifications. These findings can operate through mechanisms such as cultural transmission of risk-averse norms. Our findings highlight impressionable years as a critical period for the formation of current risk preferences. The study offers new insights into how climate-related shocks shape long-term risk attitudes, with implications for public policy, economic behavior, and climate adaptation.
"The Legacy of Growing up in Recessions and Attitudes Towards European Integration" with Anastasia Litina, CESifo Working Paper Series 12082.
Abstract: In an era marked by repeated crises and the growing traction of populist movements, understanding the deep-rooted factors shaping EU cohesion has become increasingly urgent. This paper investigates how lifetime exposure to economic recessions influences individual attitudes toward the European Union (EU). Resorting to rich micro-data from the European Social Survey (ESS) and the Eurobarometer, we construct a detailed measure of economic hardship experienced during lifetime, capturing not just isolated downturns but the accumulated burden of multiple recessions over time. Importantly, we distinguish between various types of shocks-including output contractions, unemployment surges, consumption drops, participation in IMF adjustment programs, and the asymmetry or symmetry of crises across EU member states. We show that individuals with greater lifetime exposure to these economic shocks are more likely to distrust EU institutions, oppose further integration, vote for Eurosceptic parties, and support exiting the EU. These patterns are especially pronounced for asymmetric shocks, which disproportionately affect specific regions or countries, in contrast to symmetric shocks, which appear to foster a sense of shared fate and solidarity. A series of robustness tests-including placebo checks, heterogeneity analyses, diverse shock types and designs exploiting EU institutional structure -confirms the persistent impact of economic trauma on EU attitudes, underscoring the need to address historical recessions to safeguard cohesion and democratic legitimacy in the context of the EU.
“The Implications of Trust on the COVID-19 Spread in Europe" with Anastasia Litina and Sofia Tsitou, SSRN Working Paper.
Abstract: This paper explores the interplay between two dimensions of trust i.e., political and interpersonal trust, and the spread of pandemics and more specifically, the COVID-19 diffusion in European regions. To undertake our analysis we combine sub-national (NUTS 1 regions) data for trust from ten consecutive rounds of the European Social Survey and data on COVID-19 measures, derived from the COVID-19 European Regional Tracker. Exploiting regional variation, we empirically establish that in places with a higher degree of political and interpersonal trust, the number of confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID-19 spread is lower. Our underlying hypothesis is that due to this higher level of trust, individuals tend to comply more with the policies promoted by national governments, thereby diminishing the COVID-19 spread and mortality rates in societies.
“The Role of Gender and Family Norms on the COVID-19 Spread in Europe” with Anastasia Litina, Sofia Tsitou and George Mavropoulos, UOM Discussion Paper Series.
Abstract: This paper explores the interplay between social norms i.e., attitudes on gender equality and strength of family ties, and the spread of COVID-19. To undertake our analysis we combine sub-national (Nuts 1 regions) data for the social norms from the Integrated Values Survey (IVS) from 1981 to 2019 and the spread of COVID-19 measured by the excess mortality rate in Nuts 1 European regions in 2020 and 2021. Exploiting regional variation, we empirically establish that in regions with norms favoring gender equality, the excess mortality associated with the spread of COVID-19 is lower. Our hypothesized underlying mechanism is that women respect social distancing more, thereby in a country where women enjoy more respect, the influence more strongly their families to do the same thus diminishing the virus diffusion. Concerning the strength of family times, we find that regions with stronger family ties are associated with a higher COVID-19 excess mortality rate, hinting to the higher involvement of the elderly in family affairs.
"Witch Trials and Gender Differences in Trust" with Marc Goni and Anastasia Litina, Work in Progress.
Abstract: In this paper we find that women in European regions where witch trials were more prominent significantly display lower levels of trust towards other people, the national parliament, politicians, and the political parties, and furthermore perceive other people as trying to take advantage of them.
“The Travelers’ Effect: How Tourism Reshapes Local Religious Beliefs.” with Anastasia Litina, Andreas Sintos and Skerdilajda Zanaj, Work in Progress.
Abstract: In this paper we explore the effect of cultural transmission through increased tourism on the evolution of religious beliefs.