When discussing urbanization, urban design, or Transport Oriented Design (TOD), one important metric to consider is the modal split of a city. This refers to the percentage of trips taken by different modes of transportation, such as walking, cycling, public transit, and private vehicles, etc.
The Deloitte study extracted, provides interesting insights into modal split. Notably, even cities with well-developed public transit systems like Singapore, New York City and London have a relatively high proportion of car usage compared to Hong Kong. This highlights the ongoing challenge of encouraging people to shift away from private vehicles towards more sustainable modes of transport. In relation to the global climate goals (Particularly the UNSDG), it would make interesting reading on the need to use more mass transit systems. This is accepting that EV cars will be more pervasive in the near future, but that our streets need to be reduced, given to the public and more urban landscaping, for wellness, reduced heat island effect, etc.
You could also question the cost of monthly ticket for the 4 cities, particularly when Hong Kong and Singapore will come above London and New York for cost-of-living index. These discussion around the economics of mass transit and subsidies is always going to be much more challenging, as economies starts to falter, and funding sources can be limited.
©Deloitte. 2018 Mobility Index for Hong Kong
©Deloitte. 2020 Mobility Index for Singapore
©Deloitte. 2020 Mobility Index for London
©Deloitte. 2018 Mobility Index for New York
I have attached the Kowloon catchment map for the HK MTR. Notwithstanding the very high usage of mass transit system in Hong Kong. The modal split for Buses & Trains is almost close to halfway down the middle.
The road network in this district is relatively good.
The MTR line in the middle, the Tsuen Wan Line is a heavy rail system (@ ~2min headway), it has a relatively high patronage, which potentially may be reaching its full capacity, particularly in its busier stations. So, the future modal split changes, etc. Is a challenging discussion. However, the population growth of HK is also peaking around now. So, the discussion of addressing resilience to the system is important.
Map. Gov. HK. Image with 500m catchment radius around the existing stations.
Achieving a net-zero future requires a significant increase in mass transit ridership. This can be facilitated by making public transport more affordable, efficient, and user-friendly. The change of modal split from future energy neutral busses and cars to mass transit is also important. Additionally, exploring alternative funding models beyond government subsidies is crucial. Please also see the Economic Section.
The traditional industry landscape has witnessed significant disruptions in recent years, with the rise of companies like Uber, Airbnb, and YouTube. Looking ahead, the potential arrival of L5 autonomous vehicles could have a major impact on our cities and mobility patterns. While they offer potential benefits like increased accessibility, their impact on public transit use, job markets, and urban planning requires careful consideration.