David Cerero Guerra

Research & Publications

Book Chapters

“Crimen y Covid-19. Cómo los combos de Medellín respondieron a la pandemia." [Crime and COVID-19: How Medellin Gangs reacted to the pandemic] (in Spanish with Blattman, C., Duncan, G., Hernandez, S., Lessing, B., Martinez, J. F., Mesa-Mejia, J.P., Montoya, H. & Tobon, S.). Editorial Universidad del Rosario, Banco de la República). 2022. 

Working Papers

"When Criminals Help the State: Winning Hearts and Minds Through Facilitation of State Services.” (Job Market Paper)

Abstract: State service providers and criminal actors often operate in overlapping territories. Their interactions shape the state’s ability to deliver public services in areas controlled by criminal groups and influence citizens’ perceptions of the state. This paper develops the concept of strategic facilitation, in which criminal actors controlling communities actively support state service provision. Drawing on qualitative interviews and shadowing observations with gangs in Medellín, Colombia, I develop a theory explaining when criminal groups engage in this practice. Facilitating state service provision helps them build soft power, understood as the ability to influence residents’ attitudes and behavior without using coercion. This soft power enables them to address two key challenges: economic dependence on the community and exposure to state enforcement. I test my argument using original panel survey data from residents of gang-governed neighborhoods in Medellín and administrative crime data. Despite a citywide increase in firearm seizures under a new administration, neighborhoods where gangs facilitate state services experienced a sharp decline in firearm enforcement. Moreover, residents in these areas are significantly less likely to report gang-related violence, regardless of crime rates.

“Testing the Waters: How Public Servants Respond to Criminal Presence.” (Presented at the Latin American Studies Association Conference 2024)

Abstract: How do bureaucrats manage interactions with criminal actors in their service areas? This study explores the decision-making processes and coping strategies employed by non-security-related street-level bureaucrats (SLBs) in Mexico City’s high-crime zones. Utilizing in-depth interviews and ethnographic observations, the research underscores the role of uncertainty in shaping bureaucrats’ strategies. Depending on their anticipation of criminals’ reactions, bureaucrats may opt to limit public service provision, seek acceptance from criminal actors, or altogether avoid interactions with them. This focus on uncertainty links SLBs’ coping strategies to broader discussions on criminal governance and its effects on diminishing uncertainty on how citizens must behave in armed-controlled areas.

“In the Shadow of War: Mass Protests and Emigration Aspirations in Post-Conflict Colombia.”  (with Ana Isabel López García)

Abstract: This paper examines whether—and, if so, via which mechanisms—social unrest shapes individual aspirations to emigrate from post-conflict settings. Specifically, we leverage the unexpected occurrence of large-scale protests in Colombia in 2021, triggered by an unpopular tax reform, as a natural experiment to assess their impact on said aspirations. We show that these protests significantly increased such wishes to go abroad indefinitely. This effect was not driven by opposition to the tax reform itself, but due to the protests in question eroding trust in the Colombian government. The effect was, moreover, uniform across socioeconomic, demographic, and ideological lines, albeit it was strongest among those who identified paramilitary successor groups or guerrillas as the country’s greatest security threats. Our results suggest that addressing emigration aspirations in post-conflict settings requires more than simply pursuing economic reforms or peace agreements: it also demands rebuilding institutional trust and mitigating the psychological legacies of war.

“Crop Prices and Violence: The Crop Substitution Effect in the Presence of Illegal Markets.”

Abstract: This paper evaluates the effect of economic outcomes on violence through a crop substitution mechanism. First, it analyzes exogenous changes in international prices of legal crops and their effects on substitution towards coca cultivation in Colombia. Second, it provides evidence of the downstream effects on violence of the resulting changes in coca cultivation. The results show that a 40% negative shock to international sugarcane prices increased coca crop hectares by 12.5% on average. Mediation analysis provides evidence of the increase in violence as a product of such an increase in illegal coca crops.

“Oil and Violence: A Natural Experiment on the Extensive Margin in Colombia.”

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of natural resources on violence. Causal estimates on this association have been elusive to scholars because of the potential for omitted variable bias and two-way causality. To overcome these issues, I exploit a natural experiment in Colombia’s structure of oil exploration and compare violence in the vicinity of successful exploratory wells versus non-successful ones. The results show that, conditioning on having oil exploratory wells, the first oil production well in a municipality reduces homicides. However, additional production wells do not affect violence. Analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that these effects are driven by improvements in economic conditions in the municipality, increases in the presence of security forces, and the selection of safer places to invest made by oil companies. No evidence of the rapacity effect in municipalities with productive wells is found.

In Progress

“Measuring the Measurement Error: Experimental Analysis of Extortion in Medellín.” (with Blattman, C., Mesa, J. & Tobón, S.)

“Mexican Supreme Court under Fire: Judicial System Politization and Legitimacy.” (with de la Rosa, C., & Pérez, C.)

Non-peer-reviewed Publications

"Negociando bajo la mesa." [Negotiating under the Table] (Spanish). Revista Nexos. Sección Paz y Seguridad.