Our Insights

To better quantitively identify and measure what factors would affect the utility bill arrears in the SCL service areas, we conduct predictive modeling using the stepwise selection method and linear and logistic regression models.

All individual accounts have been categorized into two groups: residential and non-residential, enabling us to compare and contrast the factors that impact utility bill arrears.

Key Takeaways

• For residential accounts, accounts that have records on returned mails and the percentage of Hispanic and Latino populations are two major factors affecting the utility bill arrears.

• For non-residential accounts, accounts that have records on returned mails, in labor force percentage, and the percentage of Hispanic and Latino populations are the three major factors affecting the utility bill arrears.

• For residential accounts, on average, the southern part of Seattle has a higher arrears risk relative to other areas.

Key Findings

For residential accounts:

• As the 2020 over 30 days arrears increase by $1, the over 60 days arrears decrease by $0.0040.

• As the 2020 over 60 days arrears increase by $1, the over 60 days arrears increase by $0.017.

• As the 2021 over 30 days arrears increase by $1, the over 60 days arrears increase by $0.95.

• Compared to the accounts that were never on SCL UDP, on average, the accounts that were on UDP but are not currently on are $4.17 lower on over 60 days arrears.

• Compared to the accounts that were never on SCL UDP, on average, the accounts that are currently on UDP are $7.41 higher on over 60 days arrears.

• Compared to the accounts that has no record on returned mails, on average, the accounts that have records on returned mails are $20.05 higher on over 60 days arrears.

• Compared to the accounts that paid bills before, on average, the accounts that never paid any bills are $4.32 higher on over 60 days arrears.

• Compared to the accounts that paid bills before, on average, the accounts that have no records on payment are $34.41 higher on over 60 days arrears.

• As the in labor force percentage increases by 1%, the over 60 days arrears increase by $10.4.

• As the male percentage increases by 1%, the over 60 days arrears increase by $22.17.

• As the black and African American percentage increases by 1%, the over 60 days arrears decrease by $27.97.

• As the Hispanic and Latino percentage increases by 1%, the over 60 days arrears increase by $62.39.

• As the low income percentage increases by 1%, the over 60 days arrears increase by $0.169.

• As the median income increases by $1, the over 60 days arrears increase by $0.000032.

Key Findings

For residential accounts:

• Compared with the accounts that were never on SCL UCP, the accounts that were previously on UDP but not currently on have 89% more odds of having arrears.

• Compared with the accounts that were never on SCL UCP, the accounts that are currently on UDP have 40% more odds of having arrears.

• Compared with accounts with no returned mail, the accounts that have returned mail have 891% more odds of having arrears.

• Compared with accounts that paid bills before, the accounts that never paid have 94.2% less odds of having arrears.

• As the in labor force percentage increases by 1%, the odds of having arrears are expected to increase by 256%.

• As the Black and African American percentage increases by 1%, the odds of having arrears are expected to increase by 54.76%.

• As the low income percentage increases by 1%, the odds of having arrears are expected to decrease by 1%.

• As the median income increases by $1, the odds of having arrears are expected to decrease by 1%.

Key Findings

For non-residential accounts:

• As the 2020 over 30 days arrears increase by $1, the over 60 days arrears increase by $0.022.

• As the 2020 over 60 days arrears increase by $1, the over 60 days arrears increase by $0.23.

• As the 2021 over 30 days arrears increase by $1, the over 60 days arrears increase by $0.77.

• Compared to the accounts that has no record on returned mails, on average, the accounts that have records on returned mails are $249.9 higher on over 60 days arrears.

• Compared to the accounts that paid bills before, the accounts that never paid are $107.9 lower on over 60 days arrears.

• Compared to the accounts that paid bills before, the accounts that have no record are $56.03 lower on over 60 days arrears.

• As the in labor force percentage increase by 1%, the over 60 days arrears increase by $234.7.

• As the low income percentage increases by 1%, the over 60 days arrears increase by$1.77.

Key Findings

For non-residential accounts:

• Compared with the accounts that were never on SCL UCP, the accounts that were previously on UDP but not currently on have 334% more odds of having arrears.

• Compared with the accounts that were never on SCL UCP, the accounts that are currently on UDP have 122% more odds of having arrears.

• Compared with accounts with no returned mail, the accounts that have returned mail have 1288% more odds of having arrears.

• Compared with accounts that paid bills before, the accounts that never paid have 88.2% less odds of having arrears.

• As the in labor force percentage increases by 1%, the odds of having arrears are expected to increase by 1248%.

• As the male percentage increases by 1%, the odds of having arrears are expected to decrease by 99.21%.

• As the Black and African American percentage increases by 1%, the odds of having arrears are expected to decrease by 52.5%.

• As the Hispanic and Latino percentage increases by 1%, the odds of having arrears are expected to increase by 129.3%.

• As the low income percentage increases by 1%, the odds of having arrears are expected to increase by 0.86%.