Dan Xie

Abstract: We provide the first empirical evidence on how digital trade facilitation reforms translate into concrete changes in port operations. Using China's Single Window reform, which streamlined customs clearance procedures, we exploit the staggered rollout across ports between 2014 and 2017. We combine AIS data on container ship movements with event study methods to identify causal effects. Effects on total carried tonnage are positive but lack statistical significance. However, decomposition analysis reveals that Single Window implementation operates through a specific channel—increasing port calls by approximately 10%—while leaving vessel loading conditions, ship size, and port processing times unchanged. To understand how ports accommodate this greater activity, we examine heterogeneity across vessel and terminal characteristics. Impacts concentrate among smaller vessels and less congested terminals, while larger vessels and capacity-constrained facilities show no response. These findings demonstrate that administrative efficiency improvements generate increases in maritime activity through extensive rather than intensive margins, with ports accommodating increased trade demand primarily through higher vessel frequency.

Presented at: EEA-ESEM Dublin (2026), Leuven–Louvain Trade Workshop (2026 virtual), UCD internal seminar (2025), Globalization, Shipping and Trade Workshop PSE (2025), ETSG Milan (2025), ADB ERDI seminar (2025 virtual), Göttinger Workshop (2025), STEP Paris (2025), PTW Bangkok (2025), APTS Tokyo (2025).

Abstract: Despite rapid real economic growth, sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission intensity in China’s manufacturing sector declined dramatically between 1998 and 2012. This paper examines two potential drivers of this decline: environmental regulation and trade liberalization. Combining firm-level pollution and production data with China’s accession to the World Trade Organization and the 11th Five-Year Plan as policy shocks, difference-in-differences estimates show that both policies contributed to lower firm-level SO2 emission intensity. To quantify their relative contributions to aggregate emission reductions, a structural general equilibrium model incorporating heterogeneous firms, trade, and endogenous pollution abatement is estimated for counterfactual analysis. The structural decomposition shows that the implicit pollution tax wedge accounts for approximately 50% of the reduction in SO2 emissions, while trade liberalization reduces pollution emissions by 36% through production reallocation and efficiency gains.

Presented at: FIW Vienna (2024), University of Luxembourg (2023), ETSG (2023), PSE-CEPR Policy Forum (poster 2023), JIE Summer School (2023), CESifo Area Conference on Global Economy (poster 2023), Doctorissimes (2023), RES (2023), EEA-ESEM (2022), SAEe (2022), GEP/CEPR Postgraduate Conference (2022), OECD (2022), Warwick PhD Conference (2022), QMUL PhD Workshop (2022), ASPEC PhD Conference (2022), NERD PhD Conference (2022).

Abstract: In many professions, public performance ratings and reputations are essential to maintain status and value. When faced with temporary cognitive impairments, individuals in these professions face a dynamic trade-off: risk damaging their hard-earned reputation when performing while impaired, or adjust their participation decisions to defend their standing. We examine the extent to which air pollution impairs performance and distorts participation in reputation-sensitive activities using a high-frequency, quasi natural experimental setting: competitive online matches in the real-time strategy game Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition. Observing over seven million interactions, we quantify how relative localized air quality alters competitive outcomes. Observed variations in daily PM2.5 exposure at a city average level account for up to a six percentage-point reduction in the probability of winning an otherwise evenly matched game. Furthermore, we show that high-skilled workers actively defend their ratings by modifying participation: a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 is associated with a 0.5% shift away from high-stakes competitive matches and toward low-stakes casual play. These findings highlight how localized environmental shocks distort productivity, competitive outcomes, and task allocation in geographically distributed economies.