Published or Accepted Papers

"The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on post-great recession entrants: Evidence from Mexico", Labour Economics, Volume 81, 2023, 102337.

I study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the formal employment of entrants from each post-Great Recession year. Using longitudinal Mexican social security records and an individual fixed effects difference-in-differences design, I find that the pandemic caused entrants from each post-Great Recession year to lose formal employment at higher rates than individuals who joined the formal sector before them. This gap is narrowing as the economy recovers. My results are explained by differences in firm-specific tenure and pre-pandemic wages, not by geographical variations in hysteresis from the Great Recession.

"The Effect of Immigration Enforcement Abroad on Home-Country Firms", with Eduardo Medina. Download Draft. Accepted: Journal of Political Economy: Microeconomics.

We use the largest modern US deportation program to investigate the effect of deportation shocks on establishments in the communities of origin of migrants. We link these deportations to Mexican municipalities by using transnational data on the undocumented migrant network and then merge them with rich establishment panel data, which includes formal and informal firms. Mexican regions experiencing larger deportation shocks observe an increase in their establishments’ size, revenue, and exports. We provide suggestive evidence that these changes are driven by increases in consumer demand, the transference of human and financial capital, and reductions in labor costs.

1st place National Award for Research Excellence in Economics "CitiBanamex 2023". This is the highest honor in Economics in Mexico, and is granted by  researchers from multiple institutions to the best paper that studies Mexico.

1st place National Award for Research Excellence  in Economics "Victor Urquidi 2023". This award is given by researchers from multiple institutions to the best research project on Mexico written by a team with at least one researcher in Mexico. 

Working Papers

"The transnational effect of temperature on remittances" with Luis Sarmiento and Gonzalo Ares de Parga Regalado  [Draft Coming Soon] 

We study the effect of temperature shocks in the United States and Mexico on remittances sent to each Mexican municipality. Using weather data from each country and transnational data on the undocumented migrant network, we estimate a Difference-in-Temperature design and find that remittances to Mexico increase when temperatures are abnormally high or low in Mexico and decrease when they are abnormally high or low in the US. We find evidence suggesting that high or low temperatures in the US reduce remittances sent to Mexico by negatively affecting migrant labor outcomes in destination communities.

"The Labor Market Consequences of  North-to-South Migration" [Download Draft] -Submitted

I investigate the impact of the arrival of individuals born in developed countries (North-to-South migration) on natives’ wages. Using Mexican Population Census data, I first characterize migration to Mexico and show that many foreign-born individuals from developed countries work, contrary to stereotypes. Then, I use an instrumental variable approach relying on enclaves and find that increasing the number of foreign-born individuals from developed countries decreases natives’ wages. I provide evidence suggesting that this is driven by the creation of low-paying jobs in industries relying on local consumption, and the substitution of natives for some white-collar jobs. 

"The Effect of Return Migration on Prices" with Jesús Arellano [Draft Coming Soon]

We exploit a large deportation program, Secure Communities, to identify the causal effect of return migration on prices in Mexico. We link these deportations to each Mexican municipality by using transnational data on the undocumented migrant network and then merge them with producer and consumer price data. We find that producer prices in agriculture, the sector most affected by these deportations, decreased and farm production increased. However, the national consumer price index increased, as a result of increased housing prices.

"Marginal Admission to Elite High Schools: Long-run Effects on Labor Market Outcomes" with Francisco Cabrera Hernández, Andrew Dustan and María Padilla Romo [Download Draft]

We estimate the long-run effects of marginal admission to elite high schools on students' labor supply in the context of Mexico City's centralized high school admission system. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we take advantage of the variation in admission cutoff scores to compare students who are just above and just below the threshold. We find that five and ten years after the admission exam, students just above the cutoff are less likely to be employed in the formal sector and, if employed, they earn lower wages. However, these employment and wage gaps close after 15 years. Moreover, we find that marginal admission to elite high schools leads to delayed entry into the formal labor market and, at least in the short run, students in elite high schools seem to sort into lower-productivity firms and industries.

"The Economic Consequences of the Decapitation of Criminal Organizations"  [Download Draft]

This paper estimates the impact of the capture of leaders of criminal organizations on the labor market in municipalities where these organizations operated between 2004 and 2006. The difference-in-difference analysis compares different employment outcomes in cartel locations and the rest, before and after the capture of cartel leaders. The results show that captures caused a decrease in nominal wages and paid employment in cartel municipalities. Using Economic Census Data, I find that captures also caused a fall in the number of establishments and had a negative impact on other establishment outcomes. This document focuses exclusively on the impact of the capture of leaders of criminal organizations on the labor market until 2011 without studying other possible consequences, and thus does not make an integral assessment of this policy. 

Media Coverage: Royal Economic Society (https://www.res.org.uk/resources-page/removing-leadership-of-criminal-organisations.html)

Mexican National Coverage (in Spanish): La captura de líderes del narco impactó en caída del empleo de 2005 a 2011 (expansion.mx) 

"The Labor Market in Mexico 2005-2025", with Lorenzo Aldeco y Jorge Pérez Pérez.  IZA World of Labor.

While Mexico has improved the education of its labor force, has had a stable macroeconomic environment, and has been friendly to international trade, its labor market still faces many challenges. Particularly, Mexico has difficulties creating high-paying jobs: The share of informal employment has remained stagnant for the last 20 years, and by 2025 remains at around 50%. These problems are particularly poignant in southern Mexico.