Research



Working  Papers and Selected Work in Progress

Voting for Deforestation? Exploring the Effect of Political Alignment on Environmental Outcomes  (Joint with Y. Barreto, R. Tigre, and M. Fadic) (08/2023) [Draft Soon]

Recession and Credit Crunch: The Lasting Consequences of a Banking Expropriation  (Joint with Y. Barreto and L. Warwar) (01/2024) [Draft Soon]

Presented at the LACEA Annual Meeting, 2023; 45º SBE, 2023

Minimum Wages and the Human Capital of the Next Generation   (joint with B. Carrillo, W. Iglesias,  and B. Sampaio) (11/2023)  (New Version Soon)

Runner up for the 2021 SBE Best Paper in Applied Microeconomics.

Presented at the  LAMES Annual Meeting, 2021; 43º SBE, 2021; ASSA - AEA Annual Meeting, 2022

Published and Forthcoming Papers

Illegal Markets and Contemporary Slavery: Evidence from the Mahogany Trade in the Amazon (Joint with Y. Barreto, R. Tigre, and D. Castro) (08/2023)

[Gated] 

Press Coverage: VoxDev

Journal of Development Economics - Vol. 166, Jan. (2024): nº103177

Presented at the  44º SBE, 2022 


Abstract: The prevalence of modern slavery is a major global concern, with an estimated 49.7 million people enslaved in 2022. This paper explores the impact of illegal markets on this phenomenon, focusing on the Brazilian government's complete shutdown of the mahogany market in the late 90s. Utilizing a quasi-experimental research design that exploits the natural variation in the occurrence of mahogany trees in Brazilian municipalities, we employ novel administrative data on labor inspections from the Brazilian Ministry of Labor to assess the effects of this shutdown on modern slavery. Our results indicate that the mahogany market shutdown significantly increased the probability of labor inspections discovering slave labor in affected municipalities. The outcomes are not influenced by coordinated police efforts targeting companies following the alteration in the law. This is evident as all the police operations within the sampled locations were initiated in response to local complaints, rather than stemming from independent police investigations. Furthermore, we validate our findings by implementing several robustness exercises. This research provides important evidence of the relationship between illegal markets and modern slavery, emphasizing the need for further investigation into this area. Keywords: Modern slavery, Deforestation, Illegal markets

The  Long-Run Economic Consequences of Iodine Supplementation. (joint with B. Carrillo and B. Sampaio)  (updated 03/21) 

IZA Discussion Paper:  No 14203 ; [Gated] 

Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 79, Sep. (2021): nº10249, (Lead article)

Presented at the REAP 2019; 41º SBE, 2019; RIDGE Impact Evaluation Network,  2020. 

Abstract: Using contemporary data from a developing country, we show that iodine supplementation early in life leads to greater human capital acquisition and raises lifetime income. We argue that higher educational attainment facilitated a transition from agriculture to jobs that demand more skilled labor and have higher economic returns. We find no increase in total employment, but a significant change in the occupational structure that translated into increased earnings scores. These findings suggest that nutritional deficiencies of iodine during critical periods of development play an important role in shaping future skills and the pathway of labor market income. Keywords: Iodine Supplementation; Long-run; Educational Attainment; Labor Market Outcomes. 

Do extended school day programs affect performance in college admission tests? (joint with G. Bayma, C. Melo, L. Sampaio and M. Mendonça) (updated 11/20)

 [Gated] 

Press Coverage: Exame

Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Vol. 40, No. 2 (2020): 232-266

Presented at the 41º SBE, 2019.

Abstract:  We assess the effects of a Brazilian extended high school day program on college admission test scores. The program entails an increase in Math/Science and Language class time, and the introduction of extra-class activity time. We exploit variation in program implementation timing to apply a difference-in-differences strategy and an event-study approach. Results show positive large effects on test scores and suggest that these effects are likely driven by increased class and extra-class activity hours. Moreover, the program affects not only scores in subjects for which it contemplates increased class time, but also in Humanities. Finally, we are able to show that increased time dedicated to academic-related extra-class activities works as a multiplier of program effects. In fact, these additional hours spent in complementary activities make the magnitude of program effects double from 0.092-0.150 to 0.180-0.317 standard deviation. Keywords: Extended High School Day Program; Difference-in-differences; Event-study; College Admission Test Scores

Technical Notes and Policy Work (In Portuguese)

Evaluation and Monitoring of Public Policies of the Ministry of Citizenship. Gappe Report; Sponsor: Ministry of Citizenship, Brazil (2020).

Old Working Papers

Abstract: Several papers have shown that misallocation of resources among heterogeneous firms leads to damaging consequences on countries' total factor productivity. The present work studies the impact of these distortions when they affect not only current productivity, but also the dynamics of future productivity, in an environment where agent decisions can generate coordination failures. This analysis will be carried out from a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms with partially endogenous productivity, in which firms have the ability to affect their future productivity by means of risky experiments, which take the form of productivity shocks, and coordination failures are generated from a complementarity of demand. Equilibrium analyses state the boundary conditions for extreme scenarios, with pure strategy, in which none or all firms invest in innovation, or for an intermediary scenario, with mixed strategies. Those conditions, however, are sensitive to distortions at the firm-level, suggesting that the current causes of misallocation of resources may carry long-lasting consequences to the growth path of TFP as well. Keywords:  Coordination  Failures;  Endogenous  Productivity;  Misallocation;  Innovation  by experimentation