Bayes Family

Student Honors & Awards

• 2025 廖筱軒榮獲2025東亞國際貝氏會議(EAC-ISBA 2025 )最佳研究生論文獎 逢甲新聞

• 2025廖筱軒榮獲第34屆南區統計研討會中華機率統計學會頒發的「最佳碩士論文壁報最佳人氣獎」。 

• 2025廖筱軒榮獲「第七屆碩士生統計研究成果研討會」優選

• 2024 陳柏慧榮獲113學年度中國統計學社論文獎之佳作獎

• 2024 朱昕儀、廖筱軒、吳岳昇、陳俊硯，張峻榤組成的團隊「1013家族」，在高速公路局舉辦的113年國道智慧交通管理創意競賽「時間預測分析與探討」比賽中榮獲第一名。 新聞稿，逢甲新聞。

• 2023 熊墨樺榮獲112學年度中國統計學社論文獎之優等獎。逢甲新聞。

• 2023 邵維瑄和簡子芯榮獲112學年度中國統計學社論文獎之佳作獎

• 2022 徐曉筠榮獲2022東亞國際貝氏會議(EAC-ISBA 2022 )最佳研究生論文獎

• 2022 王俞凱榮獲111學年度中國統計學社論文獎之佳作獎

• 2022 Aljo Clair Pingal won C. Z. Wei Memorial Award (111年度中華機率統計學會魏慶榮統計論文獎優等獎)

• 2021 黃凡芝榮獲110學年度中國統計學社論文獎之佳作獎

• 2020 李依芳榮獲台灣銀行經濟金融論文碩士組金獎

• 2019 童孟強榮獲東亞國際貝氏會議(EAC-ISBA conference)最佳研究生論文獎

• 2019 李依芳、童孟強獲科技部補助出席國際學術會議

• 2019 李依芳榮獲108學年度中國統計學社論文獎之佳作獎

• 2018 黃才育榮獲107學年度中國統計學社論文獎之優等獎。網頁。

• 2017-2018 黃才育、李依芳、蔡堉淵通過SAS 國際認證

• 2017 吳佳靜榮獲106學年度中國統計學社論文獎之佳作獎

• 2015 張寶珠榮獲Wakimoto Memorial Travel Award.  赴日本Okayama university出席會議，在Wakimoto Memorial Session for Young Scholars演講

• 2015 王于玫榮獲泰國清邁大學travel support，出席計量經濟研討會

• 2014 翁美娟榮獲103學年度中國統計學社論文獎之佳作獎

• 2014 翁美娟榮獲 ISF 2014 (34th International Symposium on Forecasting, June 29 - July 2, 2014, Rotterdam, Netherlands)委員會補助 Travel Award.

• 2013 陳淑瑜獲得Wakimoto Memorial Fund獎學金並出席在香港大學舉行的2013 ISI Young Statisticians Meeting (YSI 2013) 國際會議中發表論文

• 2013 陳淑瑜榮獲魏慶榮統計論文獎佳作獎

• 2010 黃博寬榮獲韓國統計學會暨國際統計計算協會—亞洲區會議(2010 Spring Conference of the Korean Statistical Society held jointly with the Asia Regional Section of the International Association for Statistical Computing)補助並出席在韓國大田市舉行，於 2010韓國統計學會暨國際統計計算協會—亞洲區會議

• 2010 林孟樺榮獲國科會補助出席國際學術會議和韓國統計學會暨國際統計計算協會—亞洲區會議(2010 Spring Conference of the Korean Statistical Society held jointly with the Asia Regional Section of the International Association for Statistical Computing)補助並出席在韓國大田市舉行，2010韓國統計學會暨國際統計計算協會—亞洲區會議

• 2009 林孟樺榮獲 Travel Award from the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF), the 29th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF), Hong Kong. 

• 2009 林孟樺榮獲國科會97年度「補助博士生赴國外研究」(千里馬計畫)，訪問大學：澳大利亞雪梨大學

• 2009 劉峰旗榮獲魏慶榮統計論文獎優等獎

• 2007 劉峰旗榮獲Spring Bayes 2007「最佳研究生論文競賽獎」

• 2005 林孟樺同學 榮獲「第五屆國際統計計算學會亞洲統計計算會議」（The 5th IASC Asian Conference on Statistical Computing）最佳研究生論文競賽獎

• 1998 王南喻榮獲第八屆陳文成博士紀念基金會統計科學獎學金

Supervised Theses

 PhD Theses

• 劉峰旗 (LIU, Feng-Chi)

Liu, F. C., Volatility Forecasting and Model Selection for Nonlinear Time Series. (12/2009)

• 林孟樺 (LIN, Edward M. H.)

Lin, E. M. H., Bayesian Forecasting and Nonlinear Dynamic Models (8/2010)

• 陳淑瑜 (Chen, S.Y.)

Chen, S. Y., Bayesian Unit Root Tests of Nonlinear Time Series Models with Heteroskedasticity (6/2013)

• Truong, Buu-Chau (張寶珠)

Truong, B. C., Bayesian Inference and Model Selection for Double Hysteretic Heteroskedastic Models (7/2016)

• Dong, Manh Cuong (童孟強) Department of Economics, FCU

Dong, M. C., Essays of Structural Changes And Quantile Regression on Financial Data (7/2019)

• Than-Thi, H.

Than-Thi, H., Bayesian Inference and Quantile Forecasting on the Multivariate Hysteretic Autoregressive Model (8/2019)

• Khamthong, K.

Khamthong, K., Bayesian Modeling for Nonlinear Time Series of Counts (8/2019)

• Pingal, Aljo C.

Bayesian Modeling of Integer-Valued Time Series via Transfer Function Models (1/2023)

Master Theses

1. 程彩虹 (Cherng, T. H.) - 選取雙線性時間序列模式之最適階次:利用遺傳演算法, On the Selection of Subset Bilinear Time Series Models: A Genetic Algorithm Approach. (1998)

2. 王南喻 (Wang, N. Y.) - 時間數列迴歸之參數估計及其應用, Bayesian Estimation of Time Series Regressions with Applications (1998)

3. 溫有汶 ( Wen, Y. W.) - 時間數列迴歸適合度之研究, On Goodness of Fit for Time Series Regression Models.  (1999)

4. 陳淑瑜 (Chen, S. Y.) - DTGARCH 時間數列模型之估計與適合度檢定, Estimation And Diagnostics for Double-threshold GARCH Time Series Models (2001)

5. 劉銘村 (Liu, M. T.) - 探討分數整合ARMA-GARCH模式之估計, On Estimation of Fractionally Integrated ARMA-GARCH Models (2001)

6. 劉峰旗 (Liu, F. C.) - 具條件變異數異質性之自我迴歸模式其最佳子集之選取, Best Subset Selection of ARX-GARCH Models (2002)

7. 陳明田 (Chen, M. T.) - 貝氏方法選取最佳模式---GARCH或門檻GARCH模式, A Bayesian Threshold Nonlinearity Test in Financial Time Series (2002)

8. 李仁佑 (Lee, J. Y.) - 厚尾分配在財務時間序列的應用, Applications of Fat-tailed Distributions in Financial Time Series (2003)

9. 許雅真 (Shu, Y. J.) - 財務金融時間數列是否純在非對稱性效應, Does Financial Time Series Exhibit Asymmetrical Effects? (2003)

10. 羅懷均 (Lo, H. J.) - 國際股票市場對本國與美國股市交互訊息組合之不對稱回應, Interactive Asymmetry: International Market Reactions to a Combination of Domestic and US Stock-Return News (2004)   (楊明晶.陳婉淑共同指導)

11. 林書瑩 (Lin, D. S. Y.) - 股票市場價量關係之研究-應用雙門檻模式分析, Stock Returns And Trading Volume Based on Double-threshold Models (2004)

12. 陳瀅萱 (Chen, Y. H.) - 非對稱條件變異數異質性模式之貝式選擇, Bayesian Comparison of Asymmetric Heteroscedastic Models (2005)

13. 林孟樺 (Lin, E. M. H.) - 門檻異質性變幅模式之波動預測, Forecasting Volatility on a Threshold Heteroscedastic Range Model (2005)

14. 高偉舜 (Kau, E. W. S.) - 探討平滑轉換變異數異質性模式, On Asymmetric Smoothing Transition Heteroscedastic Models (2005)

15. 程英賓 (Cheng, N. Y. P.) - 結構改變對東南亞國協五國股票市場共整合之影響, The Impact of Structural Breaks on the Integration of the ASEAN-5 Stock Markets (2006)

16. 廖麗娜 (Liao, L. N.) - 雙馬可夫轉換變異數異質性模式, Double Markov Switching GARCH Models (2006)

17. 林美惠 (Lin, A. M. H.) - 評估三區段門檻變異數異質性模式, Evaluating Three-regime Threshold Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic Models (2007)

18. 詹雅竹 (Chan, N. Y. C.) - 金融市場之風險值模型推論, Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk Models Estimates in Financial Markets (2007)

19. 戴珮如 (Tai, A. P. J.) - 條件變異數異質性模型之非線性檢定,  Testing Nonlinearity for Double Threshold Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic Models (2007)

20. 林詩芸 (Lin, C. S. Y.) -  指數平滑轉換模式之貝氏推論, Bayesian Inference to Exponential Smooth Transition Heteroskedastic Models (2008)

21. 李振瑋 (Lee, W. C. W.) - 貝氏方法評估風險值的表現, Bayesian Forecasting Value-at-Risk Thresholds (2008)

22. 韋建名 (Wei, C. M.) - 國際間股市之分量的因果檢定, Causality in Quantiles of the International Equity Markets (2008)

23. 謝岳霖 (Hsieh, W. Y. L.) - 改變點迴歸之推論, Inference of Change Points in Regression (2009)

24. 李凱民 (Lee, K. K. M.) - 迴歸及報酬預測模式下結構改變的問題, The Structural Change Problems in Regression and Return Prediction Models (2009)

25. 翁嘉聰 (Wong, J. C.) - 貝氏不對稱之分量因果關係, Bayesian Asymmetric Causality in Quantile Regression (2009)

26. 林昶字 (Lin, S.) - 伴時間變化的不對稱平滑轉換分量資本定價模型, Asymmetric Smooth Transition Quantile Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Effect (2010)

27. 黃博寬 (Lee, B. B. K.) - 應用非線性迴歸分量法預測在 2008-09 年金融危機之風險值, Value-at-Risk Forecasting using Nonlinear Regression Quantile during the 2008-09 Financial Crisis (2010)

28. 吳貞霖 (Wu, J. L.) - 以貝氏分析具有不對稱平滑時間變異結構的財務時間序列, Bayesian Inference of Asymmetric Smooth Time-varying Structure in Financial Time Series (2011)

29. 林留燕 (Lin, L. Y.) - 風險值與期望損失評估應用貝氏估計方法, The Assessment of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall via a Bayesian Approach (2011)

30. 李淑如 (Lee, S. R.) - 厚尾分配混合模型之貝氏推論, Bayesian Inference of Finite Mixture Models with Heavy-tailed Distributions (2012)

31. 林億茹 (Lin, Y. R.) -  貝氏推論 Jump GARCH 模型及其分量預測模型, Bayesian Inference and Quantile Forecasting for Jump GARCH Models (2012)

32. 賴怡君 (Lai, I. C.) - 全球金融危機期間台灣標的股與美國存託憑證連動關係之結構性改變, Structural Breaks in Dynamic Relationships Between Taiwan’s Stock and ADRs During Global Financial Crisis (2012)

33. 沈謙昱 (Shen, C. Y.) - 應用CARE模型預測風險值與期望損失, Forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Using Range CARE Models (2012)

34. 金俊龍 (Thawarot, P.) - 形成性評量對教與學之研究, A Study on the Effectiveness of Formative Evaluation to Improve Teaching and Learning (2013)

35. 郭士嶧 (Kuo, J. S. Y.) - 計數型資料之貝氏推論, Bayesian Inference for Time Series Count Data (2013)

36. 翁美娟 (Weng, M.) - 變異數異質性平滑轉移函數族群及其風險值預測, Forecasting Value-at-Risk Based on Variant Smooth Transition Heteroskedastic Models (2014)

37. 王耀霆 (Wang, Y. T.) - 單改變點自我相關條件卜松分配之貝式推論, Bayesian Estimation of ACP(1,1) with a Change point (2014)

38. 謝易修 (Hsieh, E. Y. H.) - 異常交易量對資本資產定價模型之影響, Abnormal Volume Effect on the CAPM with Heteroskedasticity (2014)

39. 阮氏橫兒 ( Nguyen, Nga T. H.) - 變異數異質性之不對稱資本資產定價模式研究, A Study on an Asymmetric Capital Asset Pricing Model with Heteroskedasticity (2014)

40. 李潔 (Li, J.) - 負二項自我相關模型在過度分散的整數型資料應⽤,  Autoregressive Conditional Negative Binomial Model Applied to Over-dispersed Count Data (2015)

41. 王于玫 (Wang, Z.) - 應用二階平滑轉移函數變異數異質性模型於配對交易, Pair Trading via the Second Order Smooth Transition Heteroskedastic Models (2015)

42. 吳佳靜 (Wu, J. J.) - 整數型時間序列之因果關係檢定:應用於環境健康議題,  Causality Test for Integer-valued Time Series Models with Applications to Environmental Health (2017)

43. 程明潔 (Cheng, M. C.) - 預測分析東協五國來台旅遊人數,  Forecasting Tourist Arrivals ASEAN 5 to Taiwan (2017)

44. 孫渝雯 (Sun, Y. W.) - 貝氏方法預測風險值與期望損失, Bayesian Forecasting on Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall (2017)

45. 黃才育 (Huang, T. Y.) - 半母數容許區間應用於配對交易策略, Semi-Parametric Version of Tolerance Interval Strategy for Pair Trading (2018)

46. 游舜傑 (Yu, S. J.) - 推論違約機率及借貸人特徵: P2P 借貸之應用, Inference of the Probability of Default And the Borrower Characteristics Approach: An Application on P2P Lending (2018)

47. 李依芳 (Lee, Y. F.) - 貝氏推論分段結構改變之變異數異質性模型, Bayesian Inference of the Multiple Structural Change GARCH-type Model with Skew Student-t Errors (2019)

48. 蔡堉淵 (Tsai, Y. Y.) - 應用不對稱分配預測尾部風險–貝氏方法, Forecasting Tail Risk Based on Skewed GED: A Bayesian Approach (2019)

49. 邱亮茗 (Chiu, L. M.) - 應用機器學習和統計模型預測台灣每日空氣品質指數, Air Quality Forecasting in Taiwan Based on Support Vector Machine and Statistical Models (2020)

50. 黃凡芝 (Huang, F.  J.) - 已實現滯延GARCH 模型之預測風險值與期望損失, Forecasting Value-at-Risk And Expected Shortfall Using Realized Hysteretic GARCH Models (2021)

51. 王俞凱 (Wang, Y. K.) - 具變異數異質性與偏斜T分布之分量迴歸三因子模型, Quantile Three-factor Model with Heteroskedasticity And Skew Student t Errors (2022)

52. 徐曉筠 (Hsu, H. Y.) - 具已實現波動CAViaR模型尾部風險之貝氏預測, Bayesian Tail-risk Forecasting of Realized Volatility CAViaR models (2022)

53. 熊墨樺 (Hsiung, M. H.) - 貝氏推論之空間對數線性整數型GARCH模式應用, Bayesian Inference of Spatial Log-Linear Integer-Valued GARCH Models with Applications (2023)

54. 邵維瑄(Shao, W. H.) - 風險價值與預期短缺預測：結合隔夜訊息的半參數模式, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Forecasting with Semi-Parametric Models by Incorporating Overnight Information (2023)

55. 簡子芯 (Chien, T. Z.) - 雙滯延已實現廣義迴歸條件異質變異數模式的分量預測, Quantile Forecasts Using the Double Hysteretic Realized GARCH Model (2023)

56. 陳柏慧, 中興大學 (Chen, P. H.) - 預測加密貨幣市場的風險值與期望損失：非線性半參數建模方法, Forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall in Cryptocurrency Markets: A Nonlinear Semi-Parametric Modeling Approach (2024) (陳婉淑, 許英麟共同指導) 

57. 廖筱軒 (Hsiao-Hsuan Liao) - 改進時間空間跨欄模式及其應用, A Modified Spatial Hurdle Integer-Valued GARCH Model with Applications (2025)

58. 朱昕儀 (Betty X.Y. Chu) - 時間數列預測：利用拔靴法應用在機器學習預測區間, Time Series Forecasting: Bootstrap Methods in Machine Learning Prediction Intervals (2025)