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Is hydrogen the lifeblood of a low-carbon future, or an overhyped distraction from real solutions? One thing is certain – the coal, oil and natural gas which currently power much of daily life must be phased out in the next 20 years or so.
There is a huge amount of information on the potential uses of hydrogen, which was discussed at our December 2020 meeting (the presentation pack is on this page of our website). Here, I will attempt to summarise the current policies and plans, together with perspectives from different analysts and also vested interests.
UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) research calls for action on heat to deliver the net zero technologies that we know work - insulating buildings and rolling out proven options. "We need to end delay or speculation about less-proven options. Analysis is consistent with recent advice from the CCC that heat policy should focus on electrification whilst exploring options for hydrogen. They say that we need to break the pattern of ad hoc and disjointed policy measures for heat and buildings, and develop a coherent, long-term strategy. This would be best achieved as an integral part of local and regional energy plans, involving local governments as coordinating agents. The aspirations for heat can’t be realised unless we also take action on the skills gap."
The head of a major UK energy supplier says ‘If you ask the question "We're a group of companies with loads of pipes, tanks and lobbyists. What form of decarbonisation suits us best?" the answer may look quite H2ish’. Indeed, that may be the only reason we're discussing hydrogen at all…….’
This is Bloomberg's view:
"As you look at role of clean hydrogen in this future net-zero energy system, you should notice something striking. None of the compelling use cases for hydrogen are widely distributed. No massive demand for hydrogen filling stations, nor hydrogen boilers, no hydrogen-based heat in most industries. The overwhelming bulk of its use will be in the chemicals industry and the power system.
What this means is that we should forget “hydrogen homesteads” – homes and small communities trying to get off-grid using hydrogen – and focus resources instead on “hydrogen hubs”. These are areas where heavy industry, particularly chemicals, fertiliser, refineries and steel come together with shipping, freight transport, pipeline and power infrastructure. This is also where we will see providers of what I call CCS-as-a-service plying their trade – dealing with process emissions from the cement industry and perhaps from the production of blue hydrogen."
https://about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich-separating-hype-from-hydrogen-part-one-the-supply-side/?s=03
https://about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich-separating-hype-from-hydrogen-part-two-the-demand-side/
The image below summarises well the pitfalls in adding hydrogen to the natural gas grid and also the inefficiency of hydrogen generation and use for domestic and business space heating compared with heat pumps. There are other pitfalls, as identified here: https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/14/can-hydrogen-replace-natural-gas-looking-at-the-numbers/amp/
Conclusions.
It's pretty clear that BEVs (Battery-Electric Vehicles) will best suit the market for cars and vans - and battery-electric technology will potentially be the best bet for buses and larger lorries too.
The future of energy supply for domestic and business use (offices and most light industry) will be in the use of electricity, replacing gas for space heating and for cooking.
Therefore there will need to be a significant increase in the generation of 'green' electricity and its distribution - and also storage, for which there are several possible options.
The UK government is proposing that biomethane should be injected into the gas grid to reduce natural gas consumption - this may just be in the short-medium term. However, the UK Hydrogen Council developing plans for hydrogen use here in the UK is co-chaired by someone from Shell.... this provides clues to the likely direction of the transition.
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/253835/uk-government-launches-hydrogen-advisory-council/
So, what are the likely uses for hydrogen? Potentially for shipping and aircraft and possibly for very large freight road vehicles - and also for 'Hydrogen Hubs' as mentioned in the Bloomberg summary above.
Further detailed analysis from Carbon Brief here:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-must-cut-emissions-78-by-2035-to-be-on-course-for-net-zero-goal
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-does-the-world-need-hydrogen-to-solve-climate-change
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