covid19_forecast - Interstate Mobility Reduction

The following figures show the influence of interstate mobility reduction on the arrival time of epidemic peak.

State-wise data is represented by the box-and-whisker, and national data is shown by the blue circle.
Days (till epidemic peak) are counted from the date on which the forecast is made.
Over time, as more states are seeded with COVID-19 patients, interstate traffic restriction becomes less effective.
However, an aggressive interstate mobility reduction desynchronizes the state-wise local epidemic peak arrival, as inferred from the widening time window.

Forecast on 03/17/20

Forecast on 03/16/20

Forecast on 03/15/20

Forecast on 03/14/20

Forecast on 03/13/20

Forecast on 03/12/20

Forecast on 03/11/20

Forecast on 03/09/20

Forecast on 03/05/20

Forecast on 03/02/20

The following figures show the influence of interstate mobility reduction on magnitude of epidemic peak.

Magnitude of national epidemic peak is always smaller than that of the state-wise (median)
This is because the state-wise local epidemic peaks do not arrive at the same time.
With the local epidemic peaks desynchronized further (via mobility reduction), the national epidemic magnitude decreases.
Again, we could observe the effectiveness of interstate traffic restriction decays over time, as the system becomes more "homogeneous"
The interstate mobility reduction is most effective, if intervention is initiated at the earliest.