Past Forecasts (December 2023)

Hospitalization Forecasts

Variant Proportions Forecast

Why model variant proportions? COVID-19 is caused by SARS-CoV-2, a constantly-evolving RNA virus that poses a unique public health threat in part due to its ability to mutate. Since 2020, scientists worldwide have observed constant and rapid changes in the versions of the virus in circulation. Some variants differed significantly in terms of severity, transmissibility, and immune evasion. Because the emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 drives can drive waves of infection and loss of immunity, modeling is useful in predicting future surges and deciding which virus strains should be targeted with vaccines and monoclonal antibodies.

Dots represent raw data.